Guideline For Monday

After dropping down to support in the morning on Friday NQ rallied all day, with the usual profit-taking decline near the close.

Inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be 3865.

-- As long as NQ can stay above 3865 we should see a rally with first resistance at 3890, then 3915. Strong resistance is at 3930, it would take an extreme bullish internals to break above 3930.

-- Bearish below 3865 with first support at 3840. Lower supports are 3830 and 3800 which is a strong support.

Guideline For Friday

NQ opened with a gap-up but failed to break above resistance, then trend down all day, down to support before rally back up for the end of day profit-taking rally. 

Strong supports at 3830 - 3840 area.

-- Staying above 3830-3840 area implies sideways consolidation or rally day with first resistance at 3870 then 3890.

-- A clear break below 3830 could trigger strong algo selling, next support is 3800.

Guideline For Thursday

on Wednesday, NQ opened with a large gap-down and then immediately rallied all morning back up to resistance before pulling back down to the inflection price level.

For Tursday NQ either rally up on its next upleg to resistance or drop back down to re-test Wednesday's low, and it will depend on where it trades in relation to key inflection price level, for Thursday it will again be 3870.

-- Above 3870 NQ is bullish, resistance are 3895 and 3915

-- Bearish below 3870, with first support at 3855 and 3845, 3830, 3800

Guideline For Wednesday

NQ traded sideways in the morning on Tuesday before dropping down to near Friday's swing low before rallying into the close. 

NQ is currently inside a large trading range between 3850 support and 3920 resistance. A clear break out of the 3850 - 3920 range could trigger a strong trending move in the direction of the break.

Price inflection level for Wednesday is 3870

- - Bullish above 3870 with first resistance at 3895 and strong resistance at 3920.

-- Bearish below 3870, with first support at 3850. A clear break below 3850 could trigger momentum algo sell programs than can tank NQ quickly down to 3800. 

Guideline For Tuesday

After a quick decline in the morning on Monday NQ rallied most of the day, but profit-taking and heavy selling by traders anticipating a strong selloff on Tuesday tanked NQ about 20 points at the close.

Looking at the 60-minute chart, it is clear that Monday's high is wave abc 1:1 up as measured from Friday's low to Monday's morning high and Monday's low to Monday's high.

Trailing stoploss for the buyers are now just below Monday's swing low, so a clear break below Monday's low is likely to trigger momentum algo selling that could quickly tank NQ down to 3800.

Staying above Monday's low implies a sideways consolidation or another rally day.

Price inflection level on Tuesday is 3895 for NQ

-- Bullish above

-- Bearish below

Guideline For Monday

Looking at the NQ 60-minute chart, it is now crystal clear that Thursday and Friday action was either wave 3 or wave C down. The strength of the current decline leg makes Thursday and Friday sell-off more likely wave 3 down, and less likely wave C down, but anythign is possible.

If it was wave 3 down, when it ends, we should see wave 4 up, then followed by wave 5 down to lower low.

Wave 1 or A started at the July 24 high, ended at July 28 low.

Wave 2 or B started at July 28 low, ended July 30 high.

Wave 3 or C started at July 39 high. It looks like it may have ended at Friday low, but we shall see where it trades on Monday. 

If it was wave 3 down, the maximum upside target for wave 4 up is 3898. A clear break above 3898 is an indication that last week sell-off was just an ABC pulback down. 

As long as 3898 is not clearly violated, look for another lower low. Wave 4 retracement may take 1 to 2 days, and it is likely a flat abc wave or a triangle abcde wave, key level is 3898. 

Price inflection level for NQ on Monday morning is 3680.

-- Bulish above, with resistance at 3900

-- Bearish below, support at Friday's swing low.

Guideline For Friday

American's intense desire to trigger a major war with Russia in order to at least delay the inevitable collapse of the US dollar, is triggering a massive selloff in the Euro currency - rally in the US$ (US$ index has a 60% of its component in weight in the Euro Currency), simply because the Eurozone is very vulnerable to Russian retaliation be it economic sanction or military retailation, and sanctions or war with Russia will be very devastating economically to the European, hence very bearish for the global stock market in general.

With investors currently so highly leverage, a sustained selloff in the stock market could cause a massive stock market collapse (crash) that is even much bigger that the 2008 collapse, even the Federal reserve would not be able to control. It will be devastating, and selloff could be both in the stock amrket and the bond market simultaneously.

On Thursday, NQ clearly broke below key support  3920, whetner or not Friday will be a follow-through down day or a pullback up day on profit-taking, only time will tell and it would also depends on where it trades in relation ot key price level.

Key price leven for NQ on Friday is 3910.

-- Trading above 3910 could trigger short-covering rally as trailing stops get runover, resistance is at 3930 - 3950

-- Selling pressure to continue below 3910, next support is at 3860, 3830

 

Guideline For Thursday

NQ continued to chop inside a narrow trading range on Wednesday evern after the FOMC minutes was released. The market looks tired and may be ready for the long awaited summer selloff. 

Whether or not NQ would have to make a new higher high above 3990 swing high before the selloff, only time will tell, but key price level on the longerterm timeframe, key support is currently at 3920 area. A clear break below 3920 is the first confirmation that the selloff is in proigress.

For Thursday, key support is 3955, with resistance now at 3980.

-- As long as NQ can stay above 3955, it may continue to stairs step higher.

-- A clear break below 3955 ccoul start to trigger momentum algo sell programs, key support is at 3920.

Guideline For Wednesday

NQ tried to breakout above 3970 early in the mornng on Tuesday but failed, reversed back down below 3970 down to just below FT Pivot support. 

NQ traded sidewyas in a narrow trading range ahead of the FOMC policy decision announcement on Wednesday afternoon. NQ may continue to trade sideways on Wednesday until the FOMC policy announcement in the announcement.

Failure to rally substantially a day or two after the FOMC announcement is an indication summer pullback may already be in progress.

Key price level for NQ on Wednesday is 3970.

-- Bulish above 3970, targeting a new daily high

-- Bearish below 3970, supports are 3940, 3930, 3920

Guideline For Tuesday

NQ opened and dropped down to 3930 support in th morning on Monday before reversing and trend up all day all the way up to 3970 resistance before pulling back down into the close. 

Depending on where NQ trades in relation to 3970 key resistance in the morning, NQ either going to rally up to the next resistance 3990, then 4000, or reverse back down to 3934 or 3930 suport.

Price inflection level for NQ on Tuesday is 3960.

-- Bullish above 3960, but it needs to clearly break above 3970 to trigger momentum algo buy programs, upside target is 3990 - 4000.

-- Bearish below 3960, with support at 3940 then 3930.

A 2-day FOMC starts tomorrow on Tuesday, so be on guard for possible choppy non-trending range-bound market.