Sunday, August 3, 2014

Guideline For Monday

Looking at the NQ 60-minute chart, it is now crystal clear that Thursday and Friday action was either wave 3 or wave C down. The strength of the current decline leg makes Thursday and Friday sell-off more likely wave 3 down, and less likely wave C down, but anythign is possible.

If it was wave 3 down, when it ends, we should see wave 4 up, then followed by wave 5 down to lower low.

Wave 1 or A started at the July 24 high, ended at July 28 low.
Wave 2 or B started at July 28 low, ended July 30 high.
Wave 3 or C started at July 39 high. It looks like it may have ended at Friday low, but we shall see where it trades on Monday. 

If it was wave 3 down, the maximum upside target for wave 4 up is 3898. A clear break above 3898 is an indication that last week sell-off was just an ABC pulback down. 

As long as 3898 is not clearly violated, look for another lower low. Wave 4 retracement may take 1 to 2 days, and it is likely a flat abc wave or a triangle abcde wave, key level is 3898. 

Price inflection level for NQ on Monday morning is 3680.
-- Bulish above, with resistance at 3900
-- Bearish below, support at Friday's swing low.