Guidline For Friday

As the conflict in Ukraine continue to intensify, particularly in anticipation of the Sunday referendum in Crimea, many investors and traders took profit on Thursday sending the market sharply lower across the board.

As long as the shorts does not cover going into the weekend the selloff should continue on Friday. However, if shorts decides to cover we can see a short-covering rally on Friday.

Key price level to watch for on Friday is 3655 for NQ June contract, and 1846 for ES June contract.

-- More selling below key price level with the next NQ support at 3620, 3600 and 3580, for ES supports are 1832 and 1824

-- Short--covering above key price level, with NQ next resistance at 3680, and 1856 and 1862 for ES June contract.

Guideline For Thursday

The market opened with a gap-down and ran down to support on Wednesday and quickly get pushed back up by the Fed buy programs, running over stop-losses, closing at the high of the day, a positive momentum at the close. 

Therefore, on Thursday morning, it should be followed by a gap-up open and run-up, or gap-up and reverse down. In the event of a gap-up open, key price level to watch after the open is the opening price level.

Key inflection price level going into tomorrow is 3700 for NQ, and 1868 for ES

-- Bullish above 1868 for ES, and above 3700 for NQ with ADR upside target of 3730.

-- Bearish below 1868 for S, and below 3700 for NQ with NQ ADR downside target at 3656.

As the military conflict in Ukraine between the US and Russia intensifies, the market can get very volatile, with panic selling at times than will be countered by the Fed buy programs.

Gold is sky-rocketing ahead of the Sunday referendum by the Crimean region of Ukraine.

 

Guideline for Wedensday

After dropping down to support soon after the open on Tuesday the market rallied fast, but failed to break to higher high. 

NQ rallied up to .786 fibonacci retracement of the high, with ES pushing slightly above .786 fibonacci level before reversing back down, broken below key inflection price level, closing near the day low, a bearish close.

The close is indicating either a consolidation in the morning on Wednesday before dropping down to supports or opened gap-down and run-down to support in the morning.

However, opening above key inflection price level is an indication the market may go into a short-covering rally mode. 

Where the market opens in relation to inflection price level will determine the direction of morning trend on Wednesday.

Key price level in the morning on Wednesday is 3700 for NQ and 1869 for ES.

-- Below implies bearish bias, target a bereak beklow Tuesday low.

-- A clear break below Tuesday low will trigger momentum algo that can quickly tank NQ down to 3770 then 3730, down to 1848-1851 for ES

-- Above implies likely short-covering rally.

Ukraine parliament on Tuesday approval for the use of nuclear weapon against Russia spooked the market on Tuesday, the conflict in Ukraine should continue to cause volatility in the market.

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Guideline For Tuesday

Following a large down-day on Friday, after making a lower-low in the morning, the market consolidated sideways in a very narrow range on Monday, a pause before the next big move. 

Depending on where it trades in relation to its inflection price level, the next move is either upward or downward. Another narrow-range sideways consolidation day is also a possibility.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday is 3700, and 1872 for ES

-- Bullish above, next upside target is another higher high above Friday swing high.

-- Bearish below, with first downside target is a break below Monday's swing low. A clear and sustained break below could trigger momentum algo sell programs that can cause a large liquidation decline, NQ next support is 3670 then 3640. For ES the next support below Monday swing low is 1848-1851.

Military conflict in Ukraine should continue to influence the financial markets.

Guideline for Monday

The market reversed soon after the open on Friday but then consolidated into the close. It was a red candle on the daily chart, an indication that the market may be going into a 2 to 3 days (or more) pullback-down mode. The pullback should continue on Monday as long as Friday's swing high is not violated.

Of course the proxy war between the US and Russia in Ukraine is going to be the main driver for the market going forward. The Fed buy programs is going to continue to support the market but as the conflict intensifies the market is going to be volatile and it will be bearish for the market. 

 

So we have the Fed buy programs on one side and the conflict-induced selling on the other side, making for a volatile and unpredictable market conditions.

Key price level for NQ on Monday is 3685, and for ES is 1870.

-- Above 3685 NQ is either going to trade sideways or rally up, resistances are 3710, 3725, ES resistances are 1880

-- Below 3685 is an indication that NQ is going down, supports are 3670 the 3640. For ES supports are 1870 and 1866, a break below 1800 could cause strong selling, next support is 1848-18751.

Guideline For Friday

After making a higher high soon after the open on Thursday the market pullback down in the afternoon.

-- If the pullback is conpmlete the market should resume its uptrend, target a higher high above Thursday swing high.

-- If the pullback is still in progress, the market shoudl continue down on Friday.

Key price level for Friday is 3725 for NQ and 1874 for ES.

-- Above implies pulabck has ended and that the uptrend has rsumes.

-- Below 3725 for NQ and below 1874 for ES is an indication pullback is still in progress, next support is 1866 for ES and 3700 for NQ. It would take a very bearish market to break below the above support level.

As the conflict in the Ukraine intensifies now that the US has imposed economic sanction on Russia, the conflict will continue to influence market action.

Guideline For Thursday

A very narrow-range, low volume choppy day on Wednesday. There are no more buyers and no more short-sellers left to cover that can cause a fast move up. The only buyer was perhaps the Fed computer algo buyers. Without any pullback down the rally would be very slow and low volume unless the fed can come in with massive buy programs.

Key price level on Thursday is 1870 for ES and 3725 for NQ

-- The current uptrend should continue above 2870 for ES and above 3725 for NQ. Target is higher-high

-- A clear break below implies the market is going into a pullback-down mode, supports are 3700 for NQ and 1866 for ES. Absence of any unexpected event in Ukraine the market should rally back up again.

Guideline For Wednesday

Algorithm buyers worked tirelessly all night on Monday and into Tuesday morning, causing a huge gap-up opened. Without many shorts left to cover the market never gained much momentum to the upside.

Going forward the crisis in Ukraine should continue to influence market movement and could cause unexpected price moves.

Whether or not we see any new development on Wednesday only time will tell, but without any unexpected news, and as long as key support is not violated, the buy programs could help push the market higher, even if at a very slow phase.

Key price level on Wednesday is 3700 (support) for NQ and 1866 (Support) for ES

-- Bullish above, target is a higher high, for NQ the next upside target is 3740, for ES is 1880.

-- Bearish below 3700 for NQ, next support is 3670, and for ES the next support is 1848-1851. It would requires a major event to break below 3670 for NQ and below 1848 for ES.

Guideline For Tuesday

As the proxy war between the American and the Russian in Ukraine intensifies the market got spooked, sold off hard, opened with a  large gap-down on Monday. 

Although large buy programs tried to rally the market both ES and NQ were not able to break-back above support-turned resistance, 1848-1851 for ES and 3670 for NQ.

Seller sold resistance with a vengeance and tanked the market hard. Buyers again tried to mount another rally in the afternoon and  the market rallied back up to just below resistance at the close. The Fed buy programs should continue to be active in the market.

Key price zone for ES on Tuesday is 1848-1851 resistance and for NQ it will be 3685 resistance.

-- Failure to clearly break above resistance is going to attract strong selling that could tank the market back down to lower low.

-- A sustained break above resistance could cauase some short-covering rally.

Russian warships has blocked Ukrainian warships from leaving the port.

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Guideline For Monday

The proxy war between the US and Russia over Ukraine has intensified now that the US-installed puppet president has now been hijacked by the Ukrainian ultra nationalist who is both anti-Russia and anti American/West. 

 

With Russia now having taken over control of Crimea and the other parts of Eastern Ukraine, and massing over 150,000 troops just at the border with Ukraine, the military conflict between the American and the Russian can only continue to intensify - and the US desperately now looking for ways to to save face, could easily trigger WW3 capable of bringing down the whole global financial system with it.

Overnight Gold has rallied strongly and the equity market has sold-off strongly. Unless the Fed buyers could turn the situation around overnight we could see a large gap-down open in the morning triggering a massive sell-off.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is going to be the main factor influencing the market on Monday and could cause either a very choppy trading session or a violent selloff in equiities. The Fed Buy programs should be in overdrive on Monday so it is also possible that we could see massive rally off the open. 

But whatever it may be, key inflection price level for NQ on Monday is 3700 and for ES it will be 1848.

-- Bullish bias above 3700 in NQ and above 1848 in ES. if so the market should either trade sideways or rally up to another new high.

-- Bearish below 3700 for NQ and 1848 for ES, and it could easily trigger a massive sell-off.