Another pullback day for NQ on Thursday. Unless NQ can break-back above March 29 swing high we could see a sharp selling coming soon, it could be on Friday or next week, resulting from false-breakout.
NQ trading back above March 29th swing high could trigger a fast short-covering rally.
With Friday tendency to be choppy sideways price action, there is a possibility that NQ may just trade sideways on Friday.
Strong support for NQ is between 14,260-14,360 price zone.
Wednesday was a pullback-down day for NQ. The rally from March 14th low has three pullback/pause days before the trend resumes. Will Wednesday pullback only last one day just like the three previous pullbacks? only time will tell.
As such, key price breakout level to watch for on Thursday wail be at 15,267 resistance and 15,010 support. Breaking out of the 15,010-15,267 trading range wil cause either a trending breakout or a false-breakout.
Successfully breaking out of the 15,010-15,267 range will trigger a rending move in the direction of the break. Failure to stay outside the breaks will cause a fast trend reversal
Successful breakout pattern
NQ continued to rally with a choppy pullback in the morning. The daily trend is still up but now starting to bump into overhead resistance, starting from 15,500 to 15,700.
How NQ react as it approaches those resistance zones from prior consolidation low will help us decide whether or not the current rally from March swing low is about to end and a sharp pullback down towards the 14,250 zone is going to occur
Key trigger for the potential pullback is a break-back below Tuesday low of 15,030. If so, the first downside target is 14,250.
The momentum of the current rally on the daily chart is still very strong, as such we could see NQ rally to continue. A break-back below 15,000 would indicate a sharp pullback is coming..
Key intraday line-in-the-sand for NQ on Wednesday will be at 15,170.
A sideways pattern for NQ on Friday, the normal Friday trading pattern. A sideways trading pattern is a paused in trend. A pause in trend could meand a pause before continuing the trend or it could mean a pullback is coming.
Friday pause pattern seems to be setting up for a larger pullback on Monday. But we would watch the intraday key inflection price level for trend direction on Monday.
Key inflection price level to watch for will be at 14,630, bullish above it, target is higher high above Friday high, and bearish below it with support at 14,450, a strong support. The market would need to be very bearish to break below that support level.
NQ consolidation ended very early and very soon after the open on Thursday. It was then followed by a rally that lasted until the end of the day. NQ closed at the high or the day, setting up a bullish day on Friday.
If there is a consolidation or pullback tomorrow, key intraday support will be at 14,660-14,687. As long as that zone will hold on any pullback down move, NQ should then rally up towards 15,000 or higher.
Breaking back below 14,660 is an indication NQ is going to lower support level, next support is 14,545
After six consecutive rally days NQ posted the first pullback day on Wednesday. With NQ not able to breakout above key resistance of 14,700 after opening gap-down and then retesting 14,700 and failed to breakout, NQ then came back down and close below the opening price.
With the current uptrend being so strong, the pullback could be short-lived and it could be anywhere between one to three days. Will NQ resume it rally on Thursday after only one pullback down day, only time will tell, we just have to watch where NQ trades in relation to its key breakout price level.
To breakout to the upside NQ would need to break above 14,700 and then stay above it to trigger more short-covering rally. If so the next upside target is at 15,000
Key support is at 14,460. A break below it on Thursday could bring in a lot of sellers. If so, the next support is at 14,230 and 14,130
On Tuesday NQ opened and then immediately rallied that lasted for a couple of hours pushing up against 14,700 resistance level before stalling and then traded sideways for the rest of the day.
On Wednesday the key price level to watch for will be at 14,700, which is Tuesday swing high, and should serve as a key price level to watch for on Wednesday.
It is difficult to say whether or not NQ intraday consolidation has ended on Tuesday. If it has not ended, we could see a pullback in the morning followed by a trending up move again on Wednesday.
Fist support on the consolidation is at 14,570, then the breakout level at 14,450. It should then be followed by a rally, with the next upside target at 15,000. NQ could easily rally up to 15,000 on Wednesday as the shorts continue to be forced to cover.
If on the other hand NQ does not need any more consolidation we could then see NQ rallying up into the next resistance at 15,000. If so NQ should trade above 14,700.
A sideways consolidation day for NQ on Monday. NQ has rallied all the way to a very strong resistance zone at around 14.500
Going forward, NQ either continue to trade sideways before breaking above it, or reverse back down from this strong resistance zone, if NQ would break down below key support zone, now at 14,000.
Thus, for now, NQ is in between 14,000 key support and 14,500 key resistance. A breakout above 14,500 is likely to rocket NQ up to the next strong resistance level at 15,000.
A break below 14,000 is likely to tank tNQ down to 13,000 level.
On the 5-minute chart, key inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday will be at 14,320, bullish above it,, first resistance is at 14,500 bearish below it, with first support at 14,220
A non-stop rally for NQ on Friday, day 4 rally. NQ has rallied up to key resoistance, the 50-day moving average on the daily chart. From Friday high we could expect one of two thing to happen this coming week.
The first thing that could happen is for NQ to continue to rally to its 200-day moving average on the dayly chart, or secondly NQ could pullback down, and the narure of the pullback days will tell us whether the pullback is a set-up for the next rally leg or whether or not it is going down to test the low.
On the intraday basis, key inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be at 14,420, bullish above it with the next resistance at 15,000, and bearish below it.with the first support at 14,250-14,280. If that level does not cause a large impulsive bounce, the next lower support is at 14,090-14,130.
Another up day for NQ on Thursday but the momentum of the rally is slowing down as it approaches several layers of strong resistance, first at 14,280 then 14,400 and 14,500. Those resistances are going to bring in a lot of short-sellers, and how NQ reach as it rally into resistance is key to understanding the next major moves in NQ.
The Fed is going to continue to buy the market to keep the market up. However, heavy volume of options expiration on Friday may cause a lot of noise.
On the 5-minute chart, key inflection price level for NQ on Friday will be at 14,010 support and 14,130 resistance. Below 14,010, the next strong support is at 13,850.
The market tanked hard after the FOMC announcement, as many investors still believe the Fed, but the Fed quickly come to the rescue and push the market up non-stop into the close.
The Fed usually keep their buy programs for a few more days just to keep the market up, As such we should see perhaps another strong up day on Tuesday with the next upside resistance at 14,500.
The Fed knows there are so many short-sellers that would be forced to cover on a move above 13,400, thus help propel the market higher.
Key intraday line-in-the-sand for NQ on Thursday will be at 14,000, bullish above it, next resistance is at 14,500. Bearish below it with first support at 13,850, then 13,750 then 13,400.
Another down day for NQ on Monday following a large down day on Friday. Will we get the third down day for NQ on Tuesday or a sideways consolidation day on Tuesday, only time will tell.
The day low for NQ on Monday was a slight break below the day low on the 24th of February.
If NQ should crash below 13,000 price level, and run-over massive number of stop-losses just below 13,000, we could see a quick meltdown for NQ to 12,000-12,400 support zone
If NQ could stay above 13,000, there is a chance that NQ is going into a consolidation day with strong resistance at 13,400 area
The FOMC will announce their policy decision on Wednesday.
A large down day for NQ on Friday. It was unusual for Friday but it could be a sign indicating how bearish the market is.
NQ has now mostly traded inside a consolidation zone between 13,250 support and 13,750 resistance for four days. Whether or not NQ will breakout of the range 13,250-13,750 before the FOMC releases their plan on Wednesday only time will tell. 13,250 support and 13,750 resistance remains key levels for trading NQ on Monday.
For intraday trading, key intraday inflection price level for NQ will be at 13,500, bullish above with forst resistance at 13,750 and bearish below it with key support at 13.250
NQ traded sideways on Thursday , the second consolidation sideways day after the big drop down to retest the February 24th low.
With Friday tendency to get choppy, we could see NQ trading sideways on Friday, being the third consolidation day, setting up a big down move next week if NQ is not able to trade back above 14,000 price level. Trading abck above 14,000 is going to imply further rally.
Key support will again be at 13,000 and key resistance at 14,000.
On the intraday time-frame for Friday, key inflection price zone is at 13,500, with resistance at 13,650, and 13,740. support is at 13,300
With the stock market ready to crash on Tuesday, buy programs was very busy at work all night on Tuesday night when the market was trading with very light volume, thus easy to manipulate with much smaller amount of trading capita.
The huge gap-up open was designed to force the shorts to cover thus cause a rally. As such, without real buyers, the rally was very choppy.
Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be at 13,715, with key resistance at 13,750 and key support at 13,650.
A clear breakout of the range 13,650-13,750 either produce a trending move out of the range or breakout add reverse sharply.
Massive buy program likely done by the plunge protection team hit the market in the morning just when the market was just about to crash. However, when it ends, the market dropped back down to near day low which happened in the morning.
On Wednesday key level to watch will be at he February 24th day low, 13,054. With NQ trading just above that price level on Tuesday we could see either a consolidation for 2 to 3 days just above 13,054 before crashing down below it, or NQ could crash below that level on Wednesday and then drop down to 12,000 - 12,400 support zone before retesting 13,054 from below.
If the US could pullback from its plan for Ukraine, which is very unlikely but anything is possible, we could see a big rally.
On Tuesday, key intra-day inflection price level for NQ would be at 13,345, bullish above it with resistances above it at 13,500 then 13,750, and bearish below it with key sypport at 13,045, the double-bottom with February 24th swing low.
News or rumours about the war in Ukraine will again be the main driver of trend direction on Wednesday
The stock market is starting to breakdown and on the verge of a crash if the market continues to decline. The global liquidity situation is starting to freeze up due to the sanction imposed against Russia.
If the sanction is not lifted the global financial system will freeze up and the financial market will collapse as companies collapses.
Key level totch on NQ is its February 24th swing low at around 13,054 (line-in-the-sand). NQ has been down over 200 points in overnight trading session.
A very bearish day for NQ on Friday, day two of a decline, and Monday will be day three down.. NQ has traded down over 300 points on Sunday night globex trading session and is now set to open lower on Monday.
There is a chance that a large gap-down open may get some counter-trend rally from oversold condition. However, the rally is going to get sold again unless it can rally up and stay up above 13,700 key line-in-the-sand for NQ on Monday.
Key support for NQ on Monday will be 13,500. If that support does not hold the next lower support is February 24th swing low of 13,057.
The war in Ukraine may crash the market really hard as global financial liquidity freezes due to the west sanction on Russia.
A pullback down day for NQ on Thursday, starting with a gap-up and then trend down all day with a small profit-taking rally at the end of the day.
NQ remains inside a trading range between 14,000 and 14,300. NQ day high was at key resistance, the 20-day moving average on the daily chart. NQ would need to mount a sustained break above 14,300 to trigger another round of short-covering.
A break below 14,000 could take NQ quickly down to the next lower support at 13,700.. A break below 13,700 could trigger a cascade of selling.
Intraday line-in-the-sand (inflection price zone) is at 14,125, bullish above, bearish below it.
NQ traded for the fourth day in a row mostly inside a trading range between 14,000 support to 14,300 resistance. The rally was very choppy smply because it was mostly short-covering, and no genuine buying activities
There are several layers of resistance above 14,300, The next resistance is 14,450 then 14,500. The Fed is going to continue to push the market higher in order to trigger more short-covering., but it is bumping against several resistance layers.
There is also not much selling happening as long as NQ remains above 13, 800, with strong support at 13,700. NQ would need to clearly break below 13,700 to trigger a cascade of selling activities.
A down day for NQ on Tuesday, and it is only pullback day one, and it usually takes three days of pullback before the trend resumes.
It will have to be a very strong uptrend for NQ to trend back up on Wednesday after only a one pullback day. And with the war in Ukraine and the negative impact of the conflict on financial liquidity situation, central banks would need to intervene aggressive to keep the market up.
Key inflection price level for NQ on Wednesday will be at 14,000, bullish above it with key resistance at 14,150. NQ is bearish below 14,000, with support at 13,870 then 13,700.
