NQ daily trend = down, and in pullback-up mode
NQ 60-minute trend = down and in pullback-up mode
NQ 5-minute trend = up
Wednesday was day 2 of the current pullback-up move on the daily chart, bouncing off the 200-day moving average on the daily chart. As I mentioned yesterday, pullbacks normally last 3 to 4 days, as such, we could see the downtrend resumes on Thursday or Friday.
I would expect the 200-day moving average on the daily chart to hold, even if there is an intraday violation. The Fed is going to defend the 200-dma aggressively as they worry about President Trump criticism of their policy.
The bounce from the 200-dma could last about 1 to 1.5 month, re-testing the high, expecting a lower high before dropping back down, a very sharp and sustained decline, Elliott Wave call it wave 3 downs (daily chart) and it should easily break below 200-dma down to retest and break below December 2018 low before we can get a sustained rally back up.
For Thursday, we look for more rally above 7500. Key level to watch for is Monday low, a break below could run-over large concentration of stop-losses which could cause a temporary intraday violation of the 200-dma on the daily chart.
Key NQ intraday level on Thursday is 7500
-- Bullish above it, next strong resistance is 7700 area, price zone where sellers will come back in aggressively.
-- Bearish below it, 200-dma support is now at 7260, but look for it to be violated on intraday basis.
