NQ Guideline For Friday

NQ traded sideways for the second day in following a large up-trending day on Tuesday. With Friday normally a sideways trading type of day, the market may continue to consolidate and then continue the rally next week.

 

Key resistance level on Monday remains at 4500. NQ would need to stay above 4500 to trigger a potential short-covering rally.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

NQ opened with a gap-up, then after running up in the morning, profit-taking at 4500 resistance area sent NQ back down to below the opening price, then rallied back up to the opening price level at the close, showing a doji day on the daily chart.

 

With the daily chart in a bullish up trending mode, and major global central banks in massive money creation business, NQ should rally back up again once consolidation and profit-taking activities has ended.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday, massive buy programs no doubt triggered on behalf of the Fed Chairwoman to make her look good, rallied the stock market in a big way.

 

Massive money creation out of thin air by all the major world central banks in order to keep deflation at bay, may extend the inevitable collapse of the current monetary system for a while longer. But once the collapse begin the whole world will pay a very heavy price for the inevitable failed experiment of central banks.

 

For now, massive money creation by all the major central banks should continue to push the stock market up, but may also cause the collapse of the current central banks gold price suppression scheme that could lead to a massive explosion in the price of gold.

 

With buy programs surely to continue going forward, look for the stock market to continue to rally, running over stop-losses along the way. The next stop for NQ is 4500.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

A choppy and narrow range type of day for NQ on Tuesday as NQ continued to be stuck below strong resistance zone between 4440 to 4475 area. It may need massive buy programs to break through resistance.

 

The daily chart is still in an uptrend and in buy mode but the momentum has greatly decelerate. The 60-minute trend is also indicating a slowing down in momentum, that could lead to a larger pullback down move.

 

On the short term time frame, key inflection price level remains at 4400.

-- NQ may try to rally above 4400.

-- The longer it stays below 4400, the more likely profit-taking could set in and take the market down. Next support is 4465.

 

Gold may be setting up for the next fast move up once the pullback to its 50-DMA moving average on the daily chart has ended.

NQ Guideline For Monday

With most traders out of the office for the long Easter weekend holidays last week, on Thursday  the market just chopped around in a narrow range sideways action. Now that most traders will be back from the holidays on Monday, the market can now continue to make a directional move.

 

With the daily trend still in a bullish buy mode, and the Fed in coordination with all the major central banks, continuing to liquefy the market, the equity market should continue to rally, albeit, in a slow choppy and narrow-range uptrend, as deflationary forces continues to fight central banks buy programs.

 

On the short term timeframe, key inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be 4400.

-- Trading above 4400 may trigger some short covering rally, next upside target is a break above recent high.

-- Staying below 4400 could put some selling pressure on NQ with the first support at 4365. With the daily trend still up, I don't expect any sharp selling to occur unless some unexpected market-moving news hit the market.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

Profit-taking ahead of the long Easter weekend pushed the market down all day on Wednesday, but it was choppy and narrow-range.

 

All major indices are still in a bullish buy mode on the daily chart. Whether or not there will be more profit-taking on Thursday, only time will tell, and in the morning at least, it will depends on where it trades in relation to key price level.

 

For NQ key inflection price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4400.

-- Bullish bias above 4400.

-- Bearish bias below, and it is an indication more profit-taking is taking place.

 

With the market closed on Friday, Thursday's trading may get choppy as most traders are already out of their office.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

The slow and choppy rally continued on Tuesday, and should continue again on Wednesday.

 

Both the daily trend and the 60-minute trend are still in a buy mode. With all the major central banks in a massive money-printing binge, there is currently no sign the buy programs is going to stop anytime soon.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

As expected, without any new buyers or news shorts that has to cover, it was another slow and choppy rally day for NQ on Monday. The pattern should continue until after we get a large pullback down move in the market.

 

The daily chart and the 60-minute chart timeframe remains bullish and in a buy mode

 

Key support for NQ on Tuesday will again be 4400, with inflection price level at 4410.

-- As long as 4400 remains intact, the uptrend should continue, target a break above Monday swing high.

-- Bearish below 4400 but it needs major catalyst to trigger major sell algos.

 

 

NQ GuidelineFor Monday

The stock market continued to rally in a narrow trading range again on Friday. Without new buyers, the current uptrend should continue to be choppy as the only main buyer in town, fighting the global forces of deflation, is the Fed itself, with other major central banks, the ECB, BOJ, PBOC, are also too busy fighting their own deflation forces with continuous rounds of massive money printing.

 

How much time is left before the fiat paper money system totally collapses, and the new gold-back money system replaces it, only time will tell, but it does not seems to be very much longer. We can see that all fiat currencies has been falling against commodities such as oil, and previous metals such as gold, even though central banks have been suppressing their prices with all their might.

 

But as traders, we must continue to trade price patterns, and the direction of our trades would depends on the timeframe we are trading in. Both the daily and the 60-minute timeframes are currently in an uptrend, but are now in overbought condition, and without a large pullback, the current uptrend is going to continue to be choppy and narrow range.

 

Key price level for NQ on the 5-minute timeframe for Monday will be 4400.

-- Bullish bias above 4400, with the first upside target is a break above Friday high.

-- Bearish below 4400, first support is 4390, then 4365.

NQ Guideline For Friday

NQ lagged behind the blue chips stocks on Thursday as market breath gets worse by the day. Unless the Fed is ready to directly restarts its own QE as opposed to engineering their QE through the BOJ, the PBOC and the ECB, we can expect the current rally to stall soon, to be followed by a resumption of the current bear market that started in January.

 

With the daily chart currently still in a rally mode, it would take some time before the current rally turns into a downtrend. For now the market may just continue to rally in a choppy narrow range trading pattern.

 

Short-term intraday key price level for NQ on Friday will be 4365 support.

-- If NQ stays above 4365, the shorts will remains inactive, first resistance is 4400.

-- Trading below 4365 could trigger some selling algos, supports are 4340, then 4330

 

NQ Guideline For Thursday

Massive buy programs triggered after the FOMC policy announcement failed to produce a massive rally, as the market pullback down into the close.

 

Buy programs resumed during after hours globex trading, with NQ back up to Wednesday's high, the goal is to keep the stock market rally intact. However, with the market breath indicating the current stock market rally unsustainable it would not be long before market forces overwhelm the market buyer led by the Fed.

 

For now, the daily chart is still in a bullish buy mode, but it is quickly approaching strong resistance, and the 60-minute chart is approaching very overbought condition, an indication the market is now at risk of a large decline.

 

On the 5-minute chart, key price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4365-4370 - now support.

-- If NQ can stay above 4365-4370 support, short-covering should continue, with resistances at 4400, 4450, 4475.

-- Trading below 4365 is bearish and likely to trigger algo sell programs, with the next support at 4330 then 4310

 

Market Breath Indicator

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

With the FOMC decision due to be announced on Wednesday afternoon, the market paused on Tuesday. NQ traded sideways in a narrow range without any new buyers and without much buy programs.

 

With most traders and investors not expecting any change in policy from the Fed, the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday could be a non-event. If so, and without any new buyers, it would again be left to the Fed to continue to push the stock market higher.

 

With the daily timeframe still in a buy mode, and without any major changes in the Fed policy, the market should continue to move higher into the end of March and possible into April.

 

Key inflection price level for NQ going into Wednesday will be 4355, but it is likely the market is going to chop around until the FOMC announcement.

 

Banks Perfect Storm

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

With most of the weak short-sellers out of the market it will be left to the Fed themselves to continue to push the stock market up ahead of the release of their policy statement on Wednesday. If so, the rally should be choppy and narrow range, but anything is possible. It should not surprise anyone if the Fed would trigger massive rally ahead of the policy announcement on Wednesday.

 

Both the daily and 60-minute timeframe for NQ are in bullish mode going into Tuesday trading. As long as pullback down does not get out of control, look for the uptrend to continue.

 

Key support level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4335.

-- As long as 4335 is not clearly violated on any down move, look for NQ to continue to make another higher high, with the next resistance at 4400.

-- A clear break below 4335 is an indication a larger pullback is in progress, next support is 4300.

NQ Guideline For Monday

Ahead of this week Fed meeting, it is in their interest to ramp up the stock market in order to maintain positive financial news, as so they did on Friday, as the stock market was gap-up and ramp up all day long into the close, keeping the stock market in a bullish mode on the daily chart.

 

With NQ still in a bullish mode, as long as pullback does not get out of hand, the market uptrend should continue on Monday.

 

Key support level for NQ on Monday will be 4300.

-- As long as 4300 is not clearly violated on a pullback, NQ should then resume its uptrend, with the next strong resistance at around 4400.

-- A clear and sustained break below 4300 is bearish and is an indication a larger pullback down move is in the card, first support is 4260.

NQ Guideline For Friday

With the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 all bumping against overhead resistance, currently the 200-DMA, their failure to break above resistance from the ECB stimulus on Thursday led many longs to take profit that tank the markets hard on Thursday.

 

With the daily chart still in a bullish mode, the selloff gave many the opportunity to go long. Massive buy programs managed to push the market up, and NQ managed to just below prior day close. But the indices would need to break above 200-DMA soon, as failure to do is going to attract short-sellers to come back with a vengeance.

 

On the short-term timeframe, key price level going into Thursday will be 4290.

-- Failure to break and stay above 4290 could trigger another round of sell programs, but since Friday tends to be choppy sideways type of days, it is difficult to predict whether or not tomorrow trading will be choppy trending.

- Trading above 4290 should keep short-sellers at bay, but the indices need to break above their respective 200-DMA  to keep the bears in check.

Global Liquidity Tracker

BofA Merrill Lynch's Global Liquidity Tracker, see below, fell into negative territory right as the S&P 500 peaked in 2000 and again in 2007.

 

Given that it measures liquidity conditions around the globe, it also dipped into negative territory in 2011-2012 during the height of the European debt crisis.

 

The latest data point shows that global liquidity has accelerated further into negative territory and now rests at levels we haven't seen since 2008.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

A sideways choppy narrow-range day for NQ on Wednesday with a close at the high of the day, just above Thursday key inflection price  level, 4290.

 

-- IF NQ can stay above 4290 on Thursday, it would put NQ into bullish mode, but first resistance is at 4310

-- Bearish below 4290 but 4260 will be key support for NQ on Thursday. Only a clear and sustained break below 4260 has the potential to trigger massive also sell programs.

 

With the daily timeframe still in bullish mode a sustained break above 4310 could turn the 60-minute time frame bullish, and could trigger a sharp rally.

 

Commodity Index is showing a breakout above the down-trendline and about to break above the right shoulder of the bullish inverted H&S pattern.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

Tuesday was another down day for the equity market, with NQ down for the second consecutive days. NQ attempted to rally and pushed above 4300 key inflection price level but failed and was sold, and NQ sold off hard into the close.

 

Many algos are programmed to buy the third pullback day, and Wednesday will be the third pullback day for NQ. If so, we could see an attempted rally in the equity market on Wednesday. However, failure to rally could trigger sharp sell-off, particularly if the market continues to drift lower.

 

On the short -term time frame, key inflection price level will be 4290.

-- Selling pressure should be subdued if NQ can trade and stay above 4290. First resistance is at 4330.

-- NQ is bearish below 4290, with first support at 4265. A clear and sustained break below 4265 is likely to trigger another round of algo selling.

 

With the daily chart still bullish but the 60-minute timeframe bearish, look for NQ to remains choppy.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

A choppy pullback down day for NQ on Monday with a close right at key support-resistance price level at 4300, setting up a rally or another down day on Tuesday, and that will depends on where NQ trades in relation of 4300 price level.

 

The 60-minute timeframe is setting up for a sharp decline. However, the daily timeframe is still in a very bullish mode.

 

Key support for NQ on Tuesday will be 4270.

-- Trading below 4270 has the potential to trigger massive algo sell programs.

-- Staying above 4270 is going to going to keep short-sellers subdued.

NQ Guideline For Monday

NQ continued to trade sideways for the third day in a row on Friday, consolidating just below strong resistance zones 4400 - 4475 area, setting up a break that could potentially trigger massive short-covering rally, or a large and sharp decline as the longs bail or get run-over by cascading selloff.

 

On the short-term timeframe, key inflection price level for trading on Monday will be 4330.

-- Bullish above 4330, first resistance is Friday swing high at 4355.

-- Bearish below 4330, with key support remains at 4300. Only a clear and or sustained break below 4300 has the potential to trigger a large and fast liquidation drop.

 

ECB will have a policy meeting this week.

NQ Guideline For Friday

The stock market traded sideways in a narrow-range consolidation pattern on Thursday, with NQ staying above its key support price level, 4300, for the second day in a row.

 

The major indices are now beginning to bump against strong overhead resistance, so the current sideways consolidation pattern may be just a setup before a break above resistance, or a consolidation before a larger pullback-down move sets in. 

 

Key inflection price level for NQ on Friday will be 4315.

-- NQ will be bullish above 4315 and the next resistance is 4400.

-- Trading below 4315 is an indication NQ is still in a pullback mode, next support is at 4300, then 4270.

 

Many top world banks are now in deep trouble, with many banks such as Deutsch Bank, is on the verge of bankruptcy. Here is a chart of Citibank

NQ Guideline for Thursday

A narrow-range sideways consolidation day for NQ on Wednesday, a day after a very large up day. A narrow rage day is a setup for a large move, either up or down, depending on where it trades in relation to key price inflection level.

 

For NQ on Thursday key price level will be 4300.

-- Staying above 4300 is an indication NQ is still in a fast move up without a larger pullback down move, next resistance is 4400.

-- Trading below 4300 implies NQ is going into a larger pullback down move, with the first support at 4270.

Guideline for Wednesday

With small traders and small speculators overly short the stock market, the released of a dismal ISM manufacturing number spooked the Fed enough to trigger one of the biggest buy programs designed to run-over stop-losses and discourage short-selling.

 

As a result, Tuesday was one of the biggest rally day in the equity market, keeping the major indices solidly in the bullish mode.

 

 Without a collapse in the crude oil market that can easily overwhelmed the Fed buy programs, the stock market should continue to rally on Wednesday, with or without a large pullback.

 

Key support for NQ on Wednesday will be 4300.

-- As long as NQ can stay above 4300, look for the rally to continue without a larger pullback down move.

-- Breaking below 4300 is an indication a larger pullback is in progress. if so the next support is at 4260-4270