Thursday, April 9, 2015

NQ Guideline For Friday

The Fed buy programs soon after the open on Thursday, designed to break above 4380 resistance in order to trigger a short-covering rally was repelled, pushing NQ back down below 4380.Only a late day rally managed to clearly break above 4380 resistance, and closed near 4400 whole number resistance.

Key price levels for NQ on Friday will be 4370 support and 4400 resistance.
-- NQ would need to stay above 4370 support to remains on the bullish side. However, NQ would need to clearly break above 4400 to trigger another rounds of buy programs.
-- Below 4400 is an indication NQ is going to consolidate and trades sideways. Only a clear break below 4370 would turn NQ into a bearish mode.  Lower supports are 4350 then 4330.

10-Year Note Yield
A log-scale snapshot of the 10-year yield offers a more accurate view of the relative change over time. Here is a long look since 1965, starting well before the 1973 Oil Embargo that triggered the era of "stagflation" (economic stagnation with inflation). I've drawn a trendline (the red one) connecting the interim highs following those stagflationary years. The red line starts with the 1987 closing high on the Friday before the notorious Black Monday market crash. The S&P 500 fell 5.16% that Friday and 20.47% on Black Monday.