Thursday, December 25, 2014

NQ Guideline For Friday

With most traders out of the office for the Christmas holidays and the end of the year holidays this week and next week, it is likely that the market is going to continue to trade sideways. 

For NQ, unless it can clearly breakout and stay out of the current trading range between 4270 support and 4300 resistance, look for NQ to remain inside the range, 4270 - 4300.

With the Fed not expected to launch QE4 until either in the second half of 2015 or in early 2016, look for crude oil price to remain under downward pressure and the downtrend should continue. Without new QE look for crude oil price decline to continue down to $20 - $30 area. Continual decline will cause a meltdown in high-yield bond market which would wreck havoc in the financial market that has the potential to suddenly "crash" the stock market.

As we can see from the chart below, since 2009, crude oil price rally with QE and tank without QE.