Happy New Year

With most traders out of the office for the New Year Eve celebration anything can happen in the market. Regular trading activities may not resume until next week.

NQ Guideline For Monday

NQ broke above 4300 resistance then trend up all day, Christmas present for the market  courtesy of the Fed. Going into year end it is difficult to believe that the Fed is not going to continue to buy the market, and also the first couple of weeks in January tends to be bullish.

Key price level for Monday in NQ will be 4300 support and 4320 resistance.

-- Bullish above 4320

-- An indication of a larger pullback down on a clear break below 4300, next support is 4285 then 4270.

NQ Guideline For Friday

With most traders out of the office for the Christmas holidays and the end of the year holidays this week and next week, it is likely that the market is going to continue to trade sideways. 

For NQ, unless it can clearly breakout and stay out of the current trading range between 4270 support and 4300 resistance, look for NQ to remain inside the range, 4270 - 4300.

With the Fed not expected to launch QE4 until either in the second half of 2015 or in early 2016, look for crude oil price to remain under downward pressure and the downtrend should continue. Without new QE look for crude oil price decline to continue down to $20 - $30 area. Continual decline will cause a meltdown in high-yield bond market which would wreck havoc in the financial market that has the potential to suddenly "crash" the stock market.

As we can see from the chart below, since 2009, crude oil price rally with QE and tank without QE.

NQ Guideline for Wednesday

On Tuesday after opening with a gap-up and then selling off in the morning NQ traded sideways all day and into the close.

With most traders out of the office for the Christmas holidays, Wednesday trading could be interesting, and anything can happen. key price inflection level for NQ on Wednesday will be 4285.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday NQ consolidated between 4285 support and 4300 resistance all day, unable to break above 4300 resistance or breakdown below 4285 support. For Tuesday NQ can either continue to stay inside the range or breakout of the range.

A breakout of the 4285 - 4300 trading range has the potential to trigger algo buy or sell programs in the direction of the break. However, with most large traders out of the office for the Christmas holidays we must be on the lookout for false breakout that leads to reversal.

NQ Guidelien For Monday

Driven by the Fed unrelenting buy programs designed to cause massive market rally going into the Christmas holidays, Friday was another rally day for NQ making it the third up day in a row for. 

Whether or not NQ needs a consolidation on Monday before rocketing back up again would depend on where it trades in relation to key price inflection level on Monday morning.

Key price inflection level for NQ on Monday is 4285.

-- Above 4285 is an indication NQ is continuing its fast move up without a consolidation, next resistance is 4320 then 4340. With many stoplosses residing just above 4340 area, buyers would be more than happy to break above 4340 area before taking profit that can cause a pullback or a reversal

-- Below 4285 implies NQ is going into a consolidation mode before resuming its uptrend, as long as any decline does not violated key support.4220. Support zones below 4285 are 4260 and 4240.

NQ Guideline For Friday

On Thursday, massive buy programs by the Fed during overnight trading led to a huge gap-up open, then relentless buy programs that continued all day on Thursday produced another large up-day for all major stock market indices, a second up day in a row.

On NQ there is still some room for an upside move, with the close at 4266 but the next major resistance is not until 4300, on Friday it may need to push into 4300 before pulling back and consolidates.

Key price level for NQ on Friday is going to be 4250

-- Above 4250 is an indication NQ is still in a fast mode up, next resistance is 4300. A clear and sustained break above 4300 could cause another large upday on Friday. Failure to break above 4300 could result in a pullback down move, a consolidation.

-- Below 4250 implies NQ may go into a pullback mode. It needs a clear break below 4210 in order to potentially trigger algo sell programs, next support is 4170.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

After days of heavy selling, the Fed buyers were finally able to trigger an up-day on Wednesday. All major indices closed in the green. 

There should be a follow-through up-day on Thursday, unless of course the global credit contraction is extremely severe. Failure to again close in the green on Thursday is an indication the global market is in serious trouble, implies the market is in a "crash" mode, and should be sold.

Key price level to watch for on Thursday is 4170 in NQ.

-- More short-covering above 4170, next resistance is 4200 then 4215 which is a strong resistance. breaking 4215 could quickly take NQ up to 4250.  

-- Staying below 4170 is an indication that NQ is going back down, first support is 4130. Breaking below 4130 is likely to trigger algo sell programs, targeting a re-test of Wednesday low.

NQ Guideline for Wednesday

American trade war against Russia specifically by collapsing the crude oil price in order to hurt the Russian economy is quickly backfiring and beginning to collapse the entire global financial system, including the US themselves.

Monster buy programs by the Fed soon after the open on Tuesday designed to trigger short-covering rally, failed to reversed the downtrend as NQ got sold-off hard in the afternoon and into the close, another liquidation day in the market.

Unless the FOMC announcement on Wednesday has something that the market has not priced in, look for another selloff day.

Key price level for NQ on Wednesday is 4100.

-- Above 4100 is an indication NQ is not in a freefall.

-- More liquidation below 4100

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

Massive buying binge in the equity futures market on Sunday night that led to a huge gap-up open on Monday failed to trigger a short-covering rally as reality quickly sets in soon after the open as sellers started to sell both the equity market and the crude oil market. 

NQ dropped over 90 points from the early morning high before bouncing back up, but afternoon selloff dropped NQ back down to near the day low, setting up another bearish day or a pullback-up day, depending on where NQ trades soon after the open.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4165.

-- Above 4165 is an indication NQ may either trade sideways or trade upward to re-test key resistance level 4185. Failure to clearly break 4185 could attract seller that could tank NQ back down to lower low below Monday's swing low. NQ would need to clearly break above 4185 to trigger short-covering rally, higher resistance are 4200 and 4215

-- Bearish below 4165, but NQ needs to clearly break below Monday's swing low to trigger another round of liquidation sell-off, next support is at 4100.

NQ Guideline For Monday

On Friday, monster buy programs by the Fed triggered right at the open designed to trigger short-covering rally, failed to reversed the downtrend as NQ got sold-off hard in the afternoon and into the close.

NQ is now approaching oversold conditions on both the daily chart and the 60-minute chart. Whether or not it would lead to an oversold bounce on Monday only time will tell, but during a strong trending move, the market can stay oversold for an extended period of time, so it is just something to watch out for.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Monday is 4220.

-- Below 4220 is an indication NQ is still in a fast mode down, with the next support at 4170, but the enxt strong support is at 4100.

-- Breaking back above 4220 implies a larger pullback-up is likely to happen, with the next resistance at 4245-4250. If NQ can break and stay above 4250 it is likely to trigger short-covering rally, next resistance is 4300.

NQ Guideline for Friday

On Thursday, with crude oil continuing it fast decline breaking below $60 in the morning, triggering global credit contraction, although buying binge by the Fed algo buyers in the morning managed to rocketed NQ up over 55 points from the opening low, to re-test Wednesday's swing high before selling pressure overwhelmed the buyers, causing NQ to dropped back down to just below morning low, essentially wiping out all the morning gain.

As long as Crude oil continues its descend the market will continue to be under severe pressure as global credit would continue to contract with declining oil prices, if so, be on a lookout for a stock market "Crash"

Key price level for NQ on Friday will be 4220

-- A break below 4220 could trigger algo sell programs, next support is at 4175 but strong selling pressure could easily drive NQ down to 4100.

-- If NQ is able to stay above 4220 support it could either rally back up again or simply trade sideways.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

On Wednesday with the crude oil price continuing its selloff, the market was bearish and primed for major decline, which it did in the afternoon, after a choppy sideways consolidation pattern in the morning and into lunch. NQ has re-tested the Monday's low, and unless it can substantially rally on Thursday, NQ selloff may even accelerate.

Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4245.

-- Above 4245 selling in NQ may at least be temporarily put on hold, next resistance is at 4260, then 4280 and of course 4300.

-- Bearish below 4245, but unless it can break below 4220 look for sideways action on Thursday. Breaking below 4220 could trigger another round of algo sell programs, supports are at 4175 and then 4100.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday, with global stock market selling off hard overnight and the US stock market about to open with a huge gap-down and ready to crash, the Fed was ready to intervene with monster buy programs to push the market up.The intervention is not without cost, as the gold market, sensing that the Fed is going to pump in massive liquidity, gold rallied big, clearly breaking above 1200 key resistance price level, and may be ready to trigger more short-covering.

With intense selling pressure it took the Fed about 90 minutes after the opening bell to stabilize the market and rocketed the indices up all day into the close.

Whether or not the attempted global market crash has been prevented, at least for now, only time will tell, but the global stock market and bond market crash is coming. This time around, the governments are all too broke to bail the market out.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Wednesday is going to be 4300 again.

-- More rally above 4300 with the next resistance at 4325

-- Bearish below 4300 but NQ needs to break below 4280 to trigger another round of algo sell programs. Lower supports are 4260, 4242, 4220, 4200.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday,a fter rallying up to key resistance soon after the open, NQ reversed down and tank hard breaking several support zones before stalling at 4260 support. 

Late afternoon NQ rallied back up to broken key support 4280 now key resistance, which will be NQ key price inflection level on Tuesday.

-- Above 4280 is an indication NQ is going back up, next resistance 4300. A break through 4300 target 4325 resistance.

-- Staying below 4280 could attract short-sellers back. If so, NQ should re-test Monday's swing low. A clear break below Monday low could trigger another round of algo sell programs.

NQ Guideline For Monday

Another sideways choppy day for NQ on Friday, even after the released of the employment report. Unless NQ can get pushed out of the current trading range between 4280 as key breakdown support level and 4325 as key breakout resistance level, the choppy narrow-range trading pattern should continue.

Inflection price level for NQ on Monday is 4315

-- Bullish above, with key resistance at 4325. Without a sustained break above 4325, any breakout could cause a reversal back down to support.

-- Bearish below 4215, with first support at 4300. A clear break below 4300 could trigger algo sell programs, next support, which is a key support is 4280

NQ Guideline for friday

Another narrow range choppy day for NQ on Thursday, it may be ready to make a move out of the current range, perhaps after the release of the employment report on Friday morning.

The current pattern is a bear flag on the 60-minute chart, implies the next leg should be down. However, because we are dealing with a manipulated market, the pattern could fail, and that in fact, we get a rally instead if the Fed buyers come in aggressively. However, since Friday tends to be choppy, we may get another choppy day again tomorrow.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Friday will be 4305

-- NQ is bullish above 4305, but it would need to clearly break above 4330 to trigger algo buy programs.

-- Bearish below 4305 but it would need to break below 4285 to potentially trigger algo sell programs.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

Another choppy sideways consolidation day for NQ on Wednesday. Unless NQ can break below 4285 and trigger algo sell programs, we could see another choppy day again on Thursday.

Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4305.

-- Above 4305 is an indication NQ may continue to rally in a very slow choppy way.

-- Bearish below 4305 but NQ would need to break below 4285 to trigger algo sell programs to cause a fast liquidation decline, if so, next support levels are 4250, 4225

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

After a large down day on Monday, Tuesday was a narrow-range consolidation day, a setup for a breakout move, either up or down, possibly on Wednesday. The breakout direction (if it breakout) would depend on where it trades on Wednesday.

Key price inflection level for NQ on Wednesday is 4305

-- Bullish above 4305, and it needs a clear and sustained break above 4315 to trigger algo buy programs, resistances are 4330 and 4350.

-- Bearish below 4305, key support is 4285. A clear break below should trigger another round of algo sell programs , supports are 4250 and 4225..

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday, NQ opened and sold off hard, dragged down by a massive selloff in a high flying stock Apple Computer AAPL which got hit by massive algorithm sell programs right from the opening bell.. 

NQ tanked hard until the Fed buyers managed to hold the decline with massive buy program. NQ traded sideways the rest of the day. At the close, it looks set for another potential large selloff on Tuesday -- unless of course the Fed come in with massive buy programs overnight or soon after the open on Tuesday.

Key price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4285 strong support

-- A sustained break below 4285 is likely to attract another round of potentially massive algo sell programs, with the next support at 4250 and then if that does not hold, 4225 is the lower support.

-- Trading above 4285 should keep the algo sellers at bay, but NQ needs a sustained break above 4300 to trigger a short-covering rally, with the next resistance at 4320, 4330.