Sunday, October 12, 2014

Guideline For Monday

The market tanked hard on Friday, including NQ which tanked hard for the second day in a row. Whether or not it is going to tank for the third day in a row on Monday, only time will tell. Keep in mind that forced margin selling could tank the market harder and harder as the decline continues --- Potential Crash Scenario

So far, last Friday swing low measured 1:1 down from September 19 swing high. On the daily chart, whether or not the 2nd down leg is wave C or wave 3 from the high, only time will tell, but the momentum on this 2nd downleg is much stronger than the 1st downleg, an indication that it is likely wave 3 down.

If it is wave 3, the 2nd downleg should continue down much further, usually to the 1.618 or larger extension of the first downleg, then we would see wave 4 bounce to be followed by wave 5 down targeting lower low to complete the cycle.

On the 5-min chart key price level for NQ on Monday is 3900.
-- Below 3900 NQ should continue down, next support below Friday low is 3845 then 3825 double bottom support from July and August low. 
-- If those support does not hold the next support below is 3730 and 3700
-- If for some reason the Fed came back into the market and buy aggressively, we could see some short-covering on a sustained break-back above 3900.