Guideline For Tuesday

A choppy narrow-range up-day for NQ on Monday with a close near the day high. NQ is now approaching overbought condition on both the 60-minute chart and the daily chart, so it is vunerable to a large pullback down move.

However, keep in mind that the Fed would want to continue holding the market up going into the long 4th of July weekend holiday, so they may just continue to buy any drop. As long as any pullback down can stay above key support level NQ should continue going higher, but it may continue to be slow and choppy unless of course we get a larger pullback down before resuming the uptrend

Key support for NQ on Tuesday is 3830. 

-- If 3830 is clearly broken the next support is 3810.

Guideline for Monday

A choppy narrow range up-day on Monday with the usual small profit-taking pullback at the end of the day. Without any major unexpected negative news on Monday the Fed buy programs should continue to push the market higher, so any pullback that does not clearly violate key support zone should provide us opportunity to go long.

At the end of the day on Friday NQ was in overbought condition on the 5-minute chart, and may need to consolidate or pullback down in the morning on Monday before rallying back up again.

Key support for Monday in NQ is around 3810 area. A clear break below 3810 is an indication nQ may be going into a larger pullback, next support is 3785.

Guideline for Friday

NQ sold off hard soon after the open on Thursday, then rallied in a slow and choppy pattern the rest of the day, much like Wednesday.

At the end of the day on Thursday, NQ looks ready to pullback down again, so unless NQ can break above Tuesday high and stay above Tuesday swing high, it is going back down to 3800.

A break below 3800 could trigger some momentum algo sell programs targeting a break below Thursday swing low.

Since Friday tends to be a choppy sideways pattern looks for tomorrow to be a choppy sideways pattern.

Guideline For Thursday

NQ initially struggled to break above 3800 early in the morning on Wednesday, but once it had broken above 3800 the shorts started to cover and NQ rallied almost all the way back up to Tueday swing high.

Key price level to watch for on Thursday is Tuesday's swing high.

-- Failure to break above Tuesday's high or a false break above Tuesday high could attract some selling but first support will be at 3800. Next support below 3800 is 3775. A clear break below 3775 could attract momentum algo sell programs.

-- Although I don't expect another large upmove above Tuesday's swing high, a sustained break above it could trigger some sort of short-covering rally.

Guideline For Wednesday

NQ finally brokeout above 3800 in the early morning on Tuesday and then rocketed up into new high and into overbought territory on the 60-min chart and the daily chart. Without any new buyer it sold off hard in the afternoon, dropping back down below3800 price level, with the close near the low of the day, a bearish close.

Key price level for Wednesday will be 3800.

--Failure to break-back above 3800 is an indication of weakness, potentially setting up a multiday decline. The first key level to break is 3775. A break below 3775 should attract momentum algo sell programs that could tank it hard, down to the next support, 3725-3730.

-- Breaking back above 3800 could setup a re-test of Tuesday's swing high..

Guideline For Tuesday

Another very narrow-range sideways pattern for NQ on Monday, still unable to break above 3800. The market is now in overbought condition on the daily chart, and running out of fresh new buyers, so it is vulnerable to a quick pullback down.

Key price level for NQ on Tuesday is again 3785.

-- As long as NQ stays above 3785 it may continue to trade in a choppy sideways pattern or up.

-- Trading below 3785 may attract some selling but it would have to clearly break below 3775 to attract some momentum algo sell programs designed to run over trailing stoploss for those holding long positions.

Guideline For Monday

Nasdaq NQ is clearly struggling to break above 3800 price level. With no more shorts to cover and no more new buyers to help push the market higher, as the only buyer left is just the Federal Reserve, the market usually gets sold off each time it makes a higher high. 

Going forward, the pattern of breaking out to higher-high followed by a selloff may continue unless NQ can clearly break above 3800 and then stay above 3800.

Key support for Monday is 3785.

-- If NQ stays above 3785 in the morning we should see a higher-high above Friday's swing high before pulling back down.

-- Trading below 3785 may attract some algo sell programs but it would probably have to clearly break below 3775 to trigger serious algo sell programs. If so support that has the potential to bounce NQ back up is at 3550-3555 area. However, should 3750-55 breaks the next strong support is at 3730

Guideline For Friday

NQ immediately pullback down soon after the open on Thursday, briefly breached 3780-85 support, down to 3775 support before rallying back up to close in the middle of the day range. 

With gold surging over $50 per oz on Thursday, it is likely the equity market may have topped and may soon be ready to begin a bear market decline.

Key support for NQ on Friday is 3775.

-- Staying above 3775 is an indication NQ is likely to stay choppy.

-- A break below 3775 is likely to trigger a liquidation decline but Friday tends to be choppy so any selloff may attract Fed buyers that can push the market upwards.

Guidelien For Thursday

The market rallied fast and furious after the FOMC announcement likely due to massive Fed buy program, pushing NQ clearly above key resistance 3785. 

If more shorts needs to cover we should get another large follow-up rally on Thursday (tomorrow). However if all the shors had covered on Wednesday we would see a sideways or pullback-down day tomorrow Thursday.

Key support on NQ for Thursday is 3780-85.

-- As long as NQ remains above 3780-85 support it should rally or trade sideays. Next upside target is 3815-3820

-- Although highly unlikely, a clear break-back below 3780 could cause a massive sell-off.

Guideline For Wednesday

Another choppy sideways pattern on Tuesday with NQ still trading inside a narrow trading range between 3755-3785 for the fourth day in a row. It may soon breakout of the range likely after the FOMC announcement on Wednesday afternoon, or on Thursday.

-- If the break is to the upside the next upside target is 3810-20.

-- If the break is to the downside the next support is 3830-35

Guideline For Tuesday

With FOMC decision anouncement not until Wednesday afternoon the market may continue to be choppy, and stuck inside a trading range, which for NQ is between 3750 lower range support and 3785 upper range resistance.

Although not expected, a clear and sustained break out of the 3750 - 3785 range implies NQ is moving to another trading range, 3785 - 3805 higher range zone and 3750 - 3730 lower range zone.

Guideline For Monday

A choppy sideways trading pattern for NQ on Friday, traded just below prior trading range low 3780-3785 area, prior support now resistance.

3780-3785 area will be key price zone to watch for on Monday, for clues as to the direction of the next move.

-- A clear break above 3785 could trigger a fast sgort-covering rally to 3800 area.

-- If NQ cannot break above 3785, sellers could come back in to sell the market, target down is a break belowJune 12 swing low. Strong support is still at 3740 area.

The next FOMC meeting is this week

Guideline For Friday

A pullback down day on Thursday. A clear break below 3780 for NQ in the afternoon triggered algorithm selling running over stoploss bt late day buying pushed NQ back up to retest its morning low, closing just below previous trading range support, now will act as resistance. 

Key price zone for Friday is 3780 area.

-- As long as NQ stays below 3780 it is either going to trade sideways or down on Friday.

-- A sustained break above 3780 is an indication NQ is going to re-test the preious trading range resistance at 3805.

Guideline For Thursday

Another sideways choppy trading action on Wednesday, the fourth day in a row trading inside a narrow trading range between 3780 and 3805. NQ is setup up for either more consolidation inside the range or a pullback down day, but I will not discount a breakout to the upside as well.

Key price levels are 3780 support and 3805 resistance.

-- A clear break below 3780 could trigger some kind of a stoploss selling but it may not be a very large drop because strong support resides at 3740 area.

-- A break above 3805 may trigger another round of short-covering rally but it would likely be a slow and choppy rally because there is not more buyers at this level, as the only buyers are the Fed buying though their proxy.

Guideline For Wednesday

As expected the market remained in a choppy narrow-range trading pattern on Tuesday, simply because there is no more buyers left to buy, as everyone who wants to buy are now fully invested in the market.

Since the only buyers left are the FED proxy buyers, the choppy narrow-range trading condition should continue until we have a larger pullback, and we cannot get any larger pullback unless the market can break below support and trigger some stoploss selling.

Inflection price zone for Wednesday is 3795 for NQ.
-- Trading above 3795 has a bullish bias, an indication that NQ may continue to rally in a very slow choppy way.
-- Trading below 3795 implies a potential pullback, and the next support is 3775.

Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) is a back-door QE by the ECB
 

Guideline For Tuesday

With a historic low volatility (low vix) NQ traded sideways in a choppy narrow trading range on Monday. By the end of the day on Monday it looks ready for a relatively larger pullback down on the 60-minute chart. 

Key price level on Tuesday is 3795.

-- Trading below 3795 is an indication that the 60-minute pullback down is already in progress, but with vix at a very low level I am not looking for a large move down.

-- Trading above 3795 implies the uptrend is still in progress, next upside target is a hgher high above Monday swing high.

Guideline For Monday

Friday was a narrow-range uptrending day. With the European Central Bank ECB now engaging in massive back door money-printing in order to prevent inevitable collapse, the newly created money has to find places to invest, and it may continue to go into the stock market. But how much higher can the stock market is going to go to before it collapses, is anyone's guess. 

However, for us traders, as long as the trend is up on the 60-minute and the daily chart, we should continue to buy pullbacks until at least the trend on the 60-minute chart indicates a pullback.

For Monday key support for NQ is 3780.

-- As long as pullback does not clearly violates 3780 look for NQ to make another higher high, but keep in mind that 3800 is a whole number resistance, which may or may not get broken on the first attempt to push above it.

-- Clearly breaking below 3780 is an indication that the NQ may be going into a pullback mode.

Guideline For Friday

The stock market rallied strongly after the ECB announced a negative interest rate policy on Thursday in order to force banks to lend. As goverments get more desperate, and in order to delay the inevitable collapse, the negative interest rate regime should also come to the US in not too distance future.

Along with the announcement, it was very likely the ECB and the Fed would have triggered most of the buy programs in the stock market in order to make the announcement looks good. 

Market sentiment is now in extreme bullish zone and primed for a trend reversal on the daily, weekly and monthly chart, all it needs now is a catalyst. What that catalyst will be, and when, there is no way to know. The market often reverses when no one is expecting it.

For Friday, unless the Fed came in with more buy programs, look for the market to consolidate Thursday's large up move. 

Key price level for NQ on Friday is 3775.

-- Above 3775 implies the uptrend is continuing, next upside target is 3800.

-- Below 3775 is an indication NQ is going into a pullback mode.

Guideline For Thursday

On Wednesday, after a brief decline down towards trading range support, NQ quickly rallied up, breaking above key trading range resistance at 3740. NQ remains above 3740 at the close, a positive momentum into the close.

On Thursday, NQ may or may not pullback in the morning before making another higher high above Wednesday's swing high.

Key support for Thursday is 3740.

-- Staying above 3740 is an indication NQ is going to higher high right away.

-- A clear break below 3740 is an indication NQ is going into a puylback mode before running back up again. On a pullback down, the next support is 3725. As long as 3725 is not clearly violated the uptrend should resume. If 3725 is broken, lower supports are 3710 and 3700.

The latest investors sentiment is showing (end of May) that the bulls were at 62.2, an indication the market is now at an elevated risk of a major pullback. When that pullback will commence, only time will tell, but the previous time the Bull reading were this high were:

1. At the end of 2013, bull reading was at 60.8 prior to the the early 2014 pullback, 

2. Then in August 1987 at 60.8 just before the 1987 crash

3. October 2007, at 62, before the big crash

Guideline For Wednesday

Another sideways choppy consolidation day on Tuesday, but it looks ready to make a move out of the current trading range 3710 - 3740. The direction of the break will depends on price in relation to key price levels.

Key resistance for Wednesday is 3740 and key support is 3710.

-- Without a clear and sustained break out of the range, NQ is going to stay choppy inside the current 3710 to 3740 trading range

-- Breaking above 3740 resistance implies a trending up move.

-- A clear break below 3710 support implies a fast drop down to 3670 support.

Guideline For Tuesday

Another sideways consolidation day on Monday, staying inside a narrow trading range between 3710 to 3740 for the 4th day in a row, an indication short-covering may have been exhausted for now, hence a possible setup for a big multiday pullback down. On the other hand, as long as key support is not clearly violated the next leg up should resume.

Key support level moving forward is 3700.

-- As long as 3700 is not clearly violated NQ should continue to either trade sideways or resume its uptrend.

-- Breakign bel;ow 3700 is an indication of a possible multi-day pullback down

Gold continues to sell-off, and should continue for  a while longer.

Guideline For Monday

NQ traded sideways on Friday, briefly traded below 3625 support, but then quickly rallied back up above support at the end of the day.

For Monday as long as it stays above 3625 support the rally should continue, NQ to make another new high. 

The uptrend has been very slow and choppy, a typical characteristics of a bull market that is mostly driven by short-covering engineered by HFT traders.

Selloff in the gold market continues