Guideline For Tuesday

Both NQ and ES opened with a large gap-up, then after running upto resistance, traded sideways into the close, closing at key support for NQ.

As long as 3580 support hold NQ should either trade sideways up, but it needs to clearly break above 3595to trigger algorithm buy programs. If so, it should test or break above 3610 resistance. NQ support below 3580 are 3565 and 3540. A clear break below 3540 could trigger another round of algorithm sell programs, with next support at 3500 area. 

For ES, support is at 1860 and resistance at 1868. Breaking out of the range implies a move to the the next resistance or support level.

Don't forget - Sell in may -- go away -- May to October is a normally bearish period. It looks like many investors are selling ahead of the bearish period which usually starts in the month of May.

 

Guideline For Monday

Friday was a sideways consolidation day with a fast rally in the morning and a slow decline in the afternoon with NQ closing right at inflection price level 3565 and ES inflection price level at 1850. Monday could be another sideways or up day.

However, trading below the inflection price level is an indication that the market is in a very bearish mode and a break below Thursday swing low should trigger another round of momentum algorithm sell programs that can tank the market hard.

-- For NQ, trading above 3564 is bullish, but resistance are at 3580, 3595, 3610

-- For ES, trading above 1850 is bullish, resistances are at 1856 and 1866

-- NQ bearish below 3565, supports are at 3540 and then 3520 and 3510.

-- ES bearish below 1850, supports are at 1840, 1832.

Guideline For Friday

On Thursday NQ opened near Wedensday's close but then quickly tanked down to support. Major buy programs quickly rallied it back to resistance before dropping back down to re-test 3540 support established early in the morning, a very choppy down-day on Thursday..

NQ closed right in the middle of the trading range established on Thursday, and looks ready to bounce all the way back to resistance 3580 resistance.

Unless NQ crash below Thursday low, I will be looking for a sideways consolidation day or a rally day, first target up is 3580 resistance. Without a clear break above 3580 look for NQ to drop back down to support which is 3540.

A clear break above 3580 could take NQ back up to 3595 or 3610. A clear break below Thursday low could tank NQ to lower supports, 3530, 3510, 3500.

The pattern for ES is similar to NQ, with support at 1832 and resistance at 1850

Guideline For Thursday

Both NQ and ES opened with a large gap-up, but were unable to break through resistance, NQ then driopped down to support, Pivot, 50-MA  and gap-close. ES eventually broke below Pivot support in the afternoon, and after a brief pullback, resumed the decline down to Monday's swing low.

After a small bounce, resumed the decline breaking below support, after re-testing broken support from below resume the declien in the afternoo broken below Monday swing low at the close, setting up for a potential liquidation day on Thursday.

Both the ES and NQ is setup for another liquidation drop on Thursday with or without a pullback. Next downside support for NQ is 3530, for ES the next support is 1825.

NQ has to clearly break above 3595 resistance to negate the above analysis and trigger another sideways ABC consolidation. Next upside resistance is 3620

For ES it needs to clearly break-back above 1580 to trigger another sideways consolidation day. Next upside resistance is 1856

As the US escalates the conflict with Russia in Ukraine, it is forcing Russia and many other countries to abandon the US dollar.

 

Guideine For Wednesday

NQ and ES rallied up to resistance then dropped down to support before bouncing back up to the middle of the trading range just slightly above key price inflection level for Wednesday, 3620 for NQ and 1856 for ES.

-- Bullish above 3620 for NQ with 1:1 upside targets up are 3650 for smaller wave and 3670 for larger wave,resistance are 3650, 3660 and 3680.

-- For ES bullish above 1856, 1:1 upside target are 1868 for smaller wave and 1872 for larger wave, resistances are 1866 and 1874.

-- Bearish below 3620 for NQ, next support is at 3695 and 3675.

-- For ES, supports below 1856 are 1847 and 1842

Guideline For Tuesday

A very large down day for the market on Monday particularly for NQ as it dropped down to support in the morning, but then rallied back up to resistance, closing right in the middle of the day range.

Unless NQ can break and stay below Monday's swing low, Tuesday could be a choppy sideways or a rally day. A clear break below Monday's swing low could attract more momentum sell algos, causing another large down day.

Key price level for NQ on Tuesday is 3620 resistance, and for ES it will be 1856 resistance.

-- If NQ cannot clearly break above 3620 it could attract selling, first support is 3595, then if that breaks, next support is Monday's low. A break above 3620 should continue to ingite short-covering rally with strong resistance at 3650 and 3660

-- For ES, failure to clearly break above 1856 will attract selling, support is at 1847, then Mondayls swing low. A break abobe 1856 could trigger more short-covering rally.

Guideline For Monday

A very bearish day on Friday with the close near the day low. The pattern was a clear 1-2-3 wave down from the high to the day low, on the 5-minute chart, for both ES and NQ, a clearer and cleaner 1-2-3 down for NQ.

-- If the 2nd downleg has ended, we should then get a 1-2-3 rally in the morning on Monday. If so, the first resistance is at 3660. A clear break above 3660 implies a move up to the next resistance at 3680

--ES resistance is 1866

-- If, however, the 2nd downleg is still in progress, then the market should continue to drop to lower price level in the morning on Monday, next support are 3620 and 3600. 

--For ES key support is 1856. A break could take ES down to the next support level, 1846

Whether or not we should get a rally up will entirely depend on how bearish the market gets. 

-- Not expecting a big rally if internals gets too bearish, and 

-- Looking for a rally if market internals are not in extreme bear camp.

Crisis in Ukraine should continue to influence the market on Monday

Guideline For Friday

Both NQ and ES broke above first resistance price level on Thursday, and, after a successful test- proceeded to rally up to the next resistance, and then closed near the upper trading range, 3680 - 3700 for NQ and  1856 - 1866 for ES.

For Friday NQ trading range will be 3680 - 2700, and 1856 - 1866 for ES. A clear and sustained break out of the range implies a movement to the next resistance or support.

-- For NQ, the upper range is 3700, a clear break above 3700 resistance target a move up to 3720. For ES, the upper range resistance is 1866, a clear break target 1875.

-- A break below lower range support target the next lower support, 3650 for NQ and 1846 for ES.

Guideline For Thursday

The market traded sideways until the released of the FOMC minutes at 2 pm in the afternoon. When the Fed tapered by another $10 billion per month as planned the market tank hard but managed to bounced on profit-taking into the close.

With major stock indices all broken below their respective Tuesday's swing low the trend down may be resuming. If so, we should see a down-day on Thursday. A clear and sustained break below Wednesday's swing low should take the market down to the next support zone.

The market would need to break-back above Tuesday's swing high to negate the resumption of the downtrend.

Key price level to watch for on Thursday is 3680 for NQ and 1856 for ES.

-- Bearish bias below key price NQ and ES, targeting a break below Wednesday's swing low. NQ supports are 3650 then 3620. ES supports are1846 and 1832.

With the Fed trying desperately to prevent dollar meltdown, gold and other major currencies got whacked and the US$ got the lift.

 

 

Guideline For Wednesday

The Fed decision on policy will be released in the afternoon on Wednesday, and it is widely expected that they will announced another $10 billion reduction in asset purchases on a monthly basis, and anything less that that would be considered bullish by the market, and the market can explode to the upside, particularly with the Fed buy programs running in overdrive.

The only thing that can change the bullish bias for Wednesday is the Ukraine situation. Should the US impose real sanction against Russia, the selling could overwhelm the Fed buyers, and the market tank.

Support on Wednesday is 3680 for NQ and 1856 for ES

-- Bullish above, with NQ resistance at 3700, 3720, a clear and sustained break above 3720 could trigger short-covering rally, targeting a break above March 06 swing high. For ES, next resistance is 1885.

-- Bearish below 1680 for NQ with supports at 3680, then 3650, for ES support is at 1856.

Guideline For Tuesday

United States has now officially imposed economic sanction against Russia as their next move. Russia is now taken out of the international money transfers system, the S.W.I.F.T..

Russia is sure to retaliate with their own sanction against the US and its allies in the west, their first target is to require payments for their oil and gas export in non-US$ currency, effectively taking the US$ out of the international reserve status, and certain to accelerate the demise/collapse of the US$.

Russia and Russian-based companies may stop making payments on their debt to the western banks, triggering the implosion of derivative contracts that is certain to cause a cascade of bank collapse in the US, Europe and globally.

United States and its allies will then retaliate with their own additional sanction which also make the already bad situation worse. We may be witnessing the beginning of financial Armageddon not only for the west by also for the whole global financial system.

Financial war could become military war very quickly and that it can easily turned nuclear - a no-win scenario.

In the short run, for Tuesday, key price level to watch for in NQ is 3650,  and 1846 for ES.

Monday was the first of normally 2 to 3 pullback-up days in the current downtrend, if so, price should not break below Monday swing low, so a break below Monday's low is very bearish indeed, an indication that the current downtrend is very powerful, implies that pullback has ended and the resumption of the current downtrend on the daily chart.

-- Bullish above 3650 for NQ the next NQ resistance is 3680. For ES resistances are 1856 and 1864. As long a Monday's swing low is not violated the momentum is upwards.

-- Very bearish indication if Monday's swing low is violated, next target is a test of Friday's low. A clear and sustained break below Friday low is certain to trigger a massive momentum SELL algo that can tanked the market down very hard and quickly. NQ supports are 3600 and 3580, for ES they are 1822 and 1805

Guideline For Monday

A narrow-range sideways action on Friday following a very large down-day on Thursday. This should be followed by a large down-day on Monday or a pullback-up day on Monday, depending on where it trades in relation to its key support zone..

Crimean had voted overwhelmingly in favour of leaving Ukraine and joining Russia, and this should bent Obama's nose out of shape, causing him to react in a very emotional way and it cannot be good.

  

If Obama carries out his threat of economic sanction against Russia it would have a very negative impact on the market - resulting in a credit contraction that can bankrupt many major banks both in the US and Europe. 

Russia and China has started to dump US dollar bonds - and soon may be joint by other countries who do not wish to be holding the bag of worthless US$. How fast or how slow things unravel is anyone's guess.

Key level for Monday on NQ is 3620 support, for ES it will be 1832 support.

-- Above support may trigger some short-covering, NQ resistance is 3650, for ES is 1846-1849

-- Next support for NQ is 3600, for ES are 1830 and 1825. depending on the selling momentum, these supports could easily get broken.

Guidline For Friday

As the conflict in Ukraine continue to intensify, particularly in anticipation of the Sunday referendum in Crimea, many investors and traders took profit on Thursday sending the market sharply lower across the board.

As long as the shorts does not cover going into the weekend the selloff should continue on Friday. However, if shorts decides to cover we can see a short-covering rally on Friday.

Key price level to watch for on Friday is 3655 for NQ June contract, and 1846 for ES June contract.

-- More selling below key price level with the next NQ support at 3620, 3600 and 3580, for ES supports are 1832 and 1824

-- Short--covering above key price level, with NQ next resistance at 3680, and 1856 and 1862 for ES June contract.

Guideline For Thursday

The market opened with a gap-down and ran down to support on Wednesday and quickly get pushed back up by the Fed buy programs, running over stop-losses, closing at the high of the day, a positive momentum at the close. 

Therefore, on Thursday morning, it should be followed by a gap-up open and run-up, or gap-up and reverse down. In the event of a gap-up open, key price level to watch after the open is the opening price level.

Key inflection price level going into tomorrow is 3700 for NQ, and 1868 for ES

-- Bullish above 1868 for ES, and above 3700 for NQ with ADR upside target of 3730.

-- Bearish below 1868 for S, and below 3700 for NQ with NQ ADR downside target at 3656.

As the military conflict in Ukraine between the US and Russia intensifies, the market can get very volatile, with panic selling at times than will be countered by the Fed buy programs.

Gold is sky-rocketing ahead of the Sunday referendum by the Crimean region of Ukraine.

 

Guideline for Wedensday

After dropping down to support soon after the open on Tuesday the market rallied fast, but failed to break to higher high. 

NQ rallied up to .786 fibonacci retracement of the high, with ES pushing slightly above .786 fibonacci level before reversing back down, broken below key inflection price level, closing near the day low, a bearish close.

The close is indicating either a consolidation in the morning on Wednesday before dropping down to supports or opened gap-down and run-down to support in the morning.

However, opening above key inflection price level is an indication the market may go into a short-covering rally mode. 

Where the market opens in relation to inflection price level will determine the direction of morning trend on Wednesday.

Key price level in the morning on Wednesday is 3700 for NQ and 1869 for ES.

-- Below implies bearish bias, target a bereak beklow Tuesday low.

-- A clear break below Tuesday low will trigger momentum algo that can quickly tank NQ down to 3770 then 3730, down to 1848-1851 for ES

-- Above implies likely short-covering rally.

Ukraine parliament on Tuesday approval for the use of nuclear weapon against Russia spooked the market on Tuesday, the conflict in Ukraine should continue to cause volatility in the market.

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Guideline For Tuesday

Following a large down-day on Friday, after making a lower-low in the morning, the market consolidated sideways in a very narrow range on Monday, a pause before the next big move. 

Depending on where it trades in relation to its inflection price level, the next move is either upward or downward. Another narrow-range sideways consolidation day is also a possibility.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday is 3700, and 1872 for ES

-- Bullish above, next upside target is another higher high above Friday swing high.

-- Bearish below, with first downside target is a break below Monday's swing low. A clear and sustained break below could trigger momentum algo sell programs that can cause a large liquidation decline, NQ next support is 3670 then 3640. For ES the next support below Monday swing low is 1848-1851.

Military conflict in Ukraine should continue to influence the financial markets.

Guideline for Monday

The market reversed soon after the open on Friday but then consolidated into the close. It was a red candle on the daily chart, an indication that the market may be going into a 2 to 3 days (or more) pullback-down mode. The pullback should continue on Monday as long as Friday's swing high is not violated.

Of course the proxy war between the US and Russia in Ukraine is going to be the main driver for the market going forward. The Fed buy programs is going to continue to support the market but as the conflict intensifies the market is going to be volatile and it will be bearish for the market. 

 

So we have the Fed buy programs on one side and the conflict-induced selling on the other side, making for a volatile and unpredictable market conditions.

Key price level for NQ on Monday is 3685, and for ES is 1870.

-- Above 3685 NQ is either going to trade sideways or rally up, resistances are 3710, 3725, ES resistances are 1880

-- Below 3685 is an indication that NQ is going down, supports are 3670 the 3640. For ES supports are 1870 and 1866, a break below 1800 could cause strong selling, next support is 1848-18751.

Guideline For Friday

After making a higher high soon after the open on Thursday the market pullback down in the afternoon.

-- If the pullback is conpmlete the market should resume its uptrend, target a higher high above Thursday swing high.

-- If the pullback is still in progress, the market shoudl continue down on Friday.

Key price level for Friday is 3725 for NQ and 1874 for ES.

-- Above implies pulabck has ended and that the uptrend has rsumes.

-- Below 3725 for NQ and below 1874 for ES is an indication pullback is still in progress, next support is 1866 for ES and 3700 for NQ. It would take a very bearish market to break below the above support level.

As the conflict in the Ukraine intensifies now that the US has imposed economic sanction on Russia, the conflict will continue to influence market action.

Guideline For Thursday

A very narrow-range, low volume choppy day on Wednesday. There are no more buyers and no more short-sellers left to cover that can cause a fast move up. The only buyer was perhaps the Fed computer algo buyers. Without any pullback down the rally would be very slow and low volume unless the fed can come in with massive buy programs.

Key price level on Thursday is 1870 for ES and 3725 for NQ

-- The current uptrend should continue above 2870 for ES and above 3725 for NQ. Target is higher-high

-- A clear break below implies the market is going into a pullback-down mode, supports are 3700 for NQ and 1866 for ES. Absence of any unexpected event in Ukraine the market should rally back up again.

Guideline For Wednesday

Algorithm buyers worked tirelessly all night on Monday and into Tuesday morning, causing a huge gap-up opened. Without many shorts left to cover the market never gained much momentum to the upside.

Going forward the crisis in Ukraine should continue to influence market movement and could cause unexpected price moves.

Whether or not we see any new development on Wednesday only time will tell, but without any unexpected news, and as long as key support is not violated, the buy programs could help push the market higher, even if at a very slow phase.

Key price level on Wednesday is 3700 (support) for NQ and 1866 (Support) for ES

-- Bullish above, target is a higher high, for NQ the next upside target is 3740, for ES is 1880.

-- Bearish below 3700 for NQ, next support is 3670, and for ES the next support is 1848-1851. It would requires a major event to break below 3670 for NQ and below 1848 for ES.

Guideline For Tuesday

As the proxy war between the American and the Russian in Ukraine intensifies the market got spooked, sold off hard, opened with a  large gap-down on Monday. 

Although large buy programs tried to rally the market both ES and NQ were not able to break-back above support-turned resistance, 1848-1851 for ES and 3670 for NQ.

Seller sold resistance with a vengeance and tanked the market hard. Buyers again tried to mount another rally in the afternoon and  the market rallied back up to just below resistance at the close. The Fed buy programs should continue to be active in the market.

Key price zone for ES on Tuesday is 1848-1851 resistance and for NQ it will be 3685 resistance.

-- Failure to clearly break above resistance is going to attract strong selling that could tank the market back down to lower low.

-- A sustained break above resistance could cauase some short-covering rally.

Russian warships has blocked Ukrainian warships from leaving the port.

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Guideline For Monday

The proxy war between the US and Russia over Ukraine has intensified now that the US-installed puppet president has now been hijacked by the Ukrainian ultra nationalist who is both anti-Russia and anti American/West. 

 

With Russia now having taken over control of Crimea and the other parts of Eastern Ukraine, and massing over 150,000 troops just at the border with Ukraine, the military conflict between the American and the Russian can only continue to intensify - and the US desperately now looking for ways to to save face, could easily trigger WW3 capable of bringing down the whole global financial system with it.

Overnight Gold has rallied strongly and the equity market has sold-off strongly. Unless the Fed buyers could turn the situation around overnight we could see a large gap-down open in the morning triggering a massive sell-off.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is going to be the main factor influencing the market on Monday and could cause either a very choppy trading session or a violent selloff in equiities. The Fed Buy programs should be in overdrive on Monday so it is also possible that we could see massive rally off the open. 

But whatever it may be, key inflection price level for NQ on Monday is 3700 and for ES it will be 1848.

-- Bullish bias above 3700 in NQ and above 1848 in ES. if so the market should either trade sideways or rally up to another new high.

-- Bearish below 3700 for NQ and 1848 for ES, and it could easily trigger a massive sell-off.