Sunday, March 31, 2013

Trade Guideline For Monday (NQ)

A slow rally on Thursday ahead of the Easter weekend with a late day break above 2810 resistance. Whether or not the Thursday's rally momentum would continue into Monday depends on where it trades in relation to the broken resistance 2805-2810, now support. 

Funds are flowing out of Europe, scared by the Cyprus situations, and running for shelter into the North American markets thinking that it is going to be safe, but it is not. It is just like jumping from a frying pan into a boiling pot. But the short-term impact is bullish for the North American Equity market.

On Monday, if price stays above 2805-2810, it may trigger a short-covering rally, with the next resistance and target at 2830.

A break -back below 2805 implies NQ is pulling back down to support area around 2775-2780.

Cyprus bank accounts confiscation is a template for future bank failures in Europe, the USA, Canada and beyond. Apparently, the plan was agreed upon at the last G20 meeting in Moscow. So from now on, every bank account, anywhere in the world, is at risk, if the bank fails, so we must wisely choose where to put the money and in what form. Make no mistake, NO bank account, anywhere is safe. 

As the government around the world get more desperate, they would get more determined to steal the money from savers in order to bail out their failing banks who bought their sovereign debt they default on. This trend is going to continue for a while until the whole system collapses.

Cyprus just happens to be the first.


Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Trade Guideline For Thursday (NQ)

Stuck between 2810 resistance and 2775 support, it would need a clear and sustained break out of the 2775 - 2810 range to cause a trending move. 

Failure to do so implies NQ should continue to consolidate inside the range, in ABC wave pattern.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Trading Guideline For Wedensday - NQ

A very narrow-range inside day on Tuesday, consolidating just below 2805-2810 resistance. 

Key Level For Wednesday is 1795.
-- Below 2795 implies a potential decline down to support 2775 then 2755.
-- Above 2795 implies continual consolidation below resistance unless it can clearly break above 2710.

NQ 5-minute chart

Monday, March 25, 2013

Trade Guideline For Tuesday

With 2810 resistance still solidly intact, NQ rallied and failed, then tank hard down through 2780 support but failed to stay below support. Profit-taking helped Nasdaq rally into the close.

Key level for Tuesday is 2790.
-- Failure to stay above 2790 implies a quick tank down to the next support at 2755. It would take a very bearish market condition to break below 2755 support.
-- Above 2790 implies a re-test of 2810 resistance. It would take a very bullish market condition to break above 2810.

Events in Cyprus should continue to influence the market on Tuesday

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Trade Guideline For Monday

Some type of deal has been reached by the EU regarding Cyprus bank bailout, but it still has to be voted by the Cyprus parliament.

Central banks are busy at work tonight supporting the equity market in Asia and Europe inorder to prevent stock market collapse. How successful will they be only time will tell, but events in Cyprus should continue to dominate the market on Monday.

Key Level For NQ on Monday is 2805 - 2810 resistance.
-- A sustained break above 2805-2810 could trigger a short-covering rally, with the next resistance and target at 2830.
-- Below key level implies NQ is going back down, first support is 2780, then 2755.

NQ 5-Minute Chart


Thursday, March 21, 2013

Trade Guideline For Friday

Nasdaq opened gap-down on Thursday and then consolidated all day into the close. It looks ready to resume its downtrend on Friday, likely in the morning if it can stay below 2780 resistance.

Key Level For Friday is 2780 (Resistance).
-- Below 2780 implies it is ready to resume its downtrend. Downside target is a break below Thursday low and then a break below 2755 swing low.
-- Above 2780 implies NQ is going back up to 2810 resistance.

UPDATE: Germany Warns That Banks In Cyprus May Remain Closed Permanently
Post image for UPDATE: Germany Warns That Banks In Cyprus May Remain Closed Permanently

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Trade Guideline For Thursday

Nasdaq traded sideways inside a trading range, 2780 support and 2810 resistance on Wednesday, down in the morning and rally in the afternoon, then collapsed back to support after the close on Oracle's  earning miss. As expected, the released of FOMC minutes was a non-event.

Key Level For Thursday is 2780.
-- If there is a follow-up to after market selling on Oracle's earning miss, NQ should break below 2780 support down to the next support 2755, then 2730--2740
-- Above 2780 implies the daily uptrend is still alive, a re-test and even of 2810 resistance is likely.

Now New Zealand Plans Cyprus-Style Bank Accounts Confiscations

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Trade Guideline For Wednesday (NQ)

NQ spent the whole afternoon inside a lower trading rage between 2755-2780 On Tuesday, closing in the middle of the day range. 

Key level For Wednesday is 2780.
-- Above 2780 is bullish, and could trigger short-covering with rally potential, with first resistance at 2810.
-- Selling pressure will resume below 2780, with first support at 2755. A sustained break below 2755 could trigger another round of selling algorithm, with next support at 2730--2740

Events in Cyprus should continue to influence the financial market on Wednesday.

Monday, March 18, 2013

Trade Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday the Plunge Protection Team was hard at work supporting the stock market with everything they have in order to avoid the contagion effect of Cyprus banking collapse.

Buying programs were triggered even before the market open, with NQ closing its 30-point gap by about noon, and then traded sideways into the close.

For Tuesday, key level to watch is 2795, Point-Of-Control. 

Events in Cyprus/Europe could change the market dynamic at any moment, but in general, above 2795 implies a re-test of the prior resistance 2810, while below 2795 implies a resumption of the selloff that started in Asia and Europe on Sunday night.

All major US stock market indices are in mature wave 5 rally, could end at any moment, and reverses down..

Supports are 2780, then 2760, 2740

Cyprus bank Run In progress






Cyprus Bank Heist By The ECB And The IMF - A Dangerous Precedent

ECB and IMF planned confiscation of bank deposits in Cyprus to bail out insolvent Cyprus banks is a very dangerous precedent not only because most of the money in Cyprus banks belong to the Russian Ex KGB members but also because it could undermine the depositors and investors confidence in the global banking system.

Cyprus is no doubt a "test-case", and if they are successful, the model will be adopted in every collapsing European Countries and the US. Make no mistake, Europe and the US will confiscate depositors fund when the next collapse roll in to their shore.

Quoting from Jim Sinclair's interview with Eric King of KWN, "All Hell Is Breaking Loose After Cyprus Catastrophe. The following is a full transcript of the interview that I think is very useful in understanding the event that is happening right now. 

Today legendary trader Jim Sinclair told King World News that all hell is breaking loose after the Cyprus catastrophe.  Sinclair, who’s father was business partners with another legendary trader, Jesse Livermore, had this to say in this extraordinary and exclusive KWN interview:

Eric King:  “Jim, your comments over the weekend on King World News regarding the Cyprus disaster have electrified the world.  But it also seems to have frightened a great many people.”

Sinclair:  “Well, it should have frightened many of the players involved, and served as a wake-up call.  There was a great miscalculation made with regards to Cyprus, and the situation has quickly turned into a catastrophe.  There was no real understanding of the entities that were behind the Russian corporations which have money in Cyprus, and the effect of what is in reality the confiscation of Russian ex-KGB money.  

The people at the IMF, which have spearheaded this disaster, never expected the ‘Cyprus Solution’ to blow up in their face the way it has....

“This has quickly turned into a PR nightmare because it is not a ‘tax,’ but instead a ‘confiscation.’  They have stolen KGB money in order to meet the liabilities of the banks.  Up to this point, bank depositors have been held whole in this most serious Western, and by consequence international financial meltdown.  

Up to now the psychology has been that if you have money in the bank you really don’t have to worry too much. This represents a complete change in the strategy that has existed up to the present time, which has been crucial in holding together the financial world after the meltdown of the over-the-counter derivative has done so much damage.”

Eric King:  “The aftermath of this debacle and some of the chess moves that are going on here, your thoughts?”

Sinclair:  “Taking Russian money is very foolish.  You have to understand the culture of the people you are dealing with.  The government leaders in Cyprus have no ability to protect themselves from the retribution of the former Russian KGB agents, including Putin himself.

The government leaders in Cyprus are trying to back-pedal right now in order to save their lives.  Let me say it again, they are trying to save their own lives.  Remember, ‘revenge is best served cold.’  This means the revenge never comes at the moment of the miscreant act.  But it will come in time.

To take money from the leading economic entities in Russia, is to take money from the former KGB officers, and taking money from them is extremely dangerous.  I think the reality has quickly set in for the leaders of Cyprus that they have aided in the confiscation of the most serious and dangerous money you could possibly touch.  It has these leaders more afraid for their lives than their bank accounts.

I would also add that this was the biggest mistake made by the IMF and the ECB in their history.  Every time you do business with a Russian company, you do business with a bank in Cyprus.  Money goes in, it goes out, but it all funnels through Cyprus.  

Coming down on Cyprus as a test case for the new ‘Bail-In’ rather than ‘Bailout,’ the utilization of the depositors money to pay for the losses, could very well derail the entire efforts so far to maintain the appearance of solvency in the West.  

Trillions upon trillions of dollars have been put into the system in order to maintain this appearance of solvency, and so this Cyprus miscalculation is extremely serious.  This was a ‘test case’ and the IMF firmly believed the ‘Cyprus Solution’ wouldn’t mean anything.  

The real catastrophe here was the misidentification of the capital present in the banks, which, in fact, turns out to be KGB money they are confiscating.  And as I said earlier, taking money from them is extremely dangerous.”

Eric King:  “As you predicted over the weekend, gold has pierced the $1,600 level on the upside, and it looks as though the physical buyers, the central banks and others, have begun to raise their bids and pressure the shorts.”

Sinclair:  “The thesis upon which the hedge funds have gone short of gold has now been destroyed.  This is the birth of a transition of the gold market to a cash market.  The paper markets will now be moving towards becoming cash markets.  It is the birth of an entire new era of trading in what, up until now, has been a paper dominated market for gold when it comes to setting price.  

Ultimately, this will mean the end of the manipulation of the gold market because it will become 100% cash.  Paper, in gold, is about to exit as a business as the physical market retakes its rightful position once again, and the physical market makes the market price in gold.

This will be the beginning of a minimum $1,900 advance in gold.  This will represent more than a doubling of the current price of gold as all hell breaks loose, and this Cyprus catastrophe has a ripple effect around the world.”

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Trade Guideline For Monday

Nasdaq is still stuck inside a trading range, 2780 support and 2810 resistance. It will take a major market moving event to move it out of the current range.

Cyprus bank run and Cyprus financial collapse happening at this very moment, particularly if its contagion effect is not contained, has the potential to trigger worldwide credit collapse similar to but much greater than the 2008 collapse, has the potential to move global market to the downside, market meltdown.

Asian markets are now in selloff mode in reaction to the Cyprus banking collapse. If it continues on into Europe, it may also triggers selloff in the US market on Monday as well. We shall see in the morning. 

Cyprus Bank Run

Currently, all major US equity market indices are now clearly in wave 5 up as seen on daily charts below, with the current wave series starting at the November 2012 swing low, and it should end soon, days and weeks, not months. How and when it ends,only time will tell, but we will see it when it ends.

NQ Daily Chart
ES Daily Chart
YM Daily Chart