Monday, December 30, 2013

Guideline for Tuesday

With most traders out of the office this week, Tuesday's price action could be the same as Monday's action, a sideways choppy actions.

Key inflection (support/resistance) price level for Tuesday is 3565.
-- Bullish bias above
-- Bearish bias below

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Guideline For Monday

NQ traded down on Friday, broken down through 3570 support, but then rallied back up to re-test broken support - now resistance at the 4:15 close

For Monday the morning trend will depend on where it trades in relation to its support/resistance price level 3570.
-- It could opened with a gap-down and run down to the next support 3535, or, it could opens below 3570 and then trend down to support 3535 in the morning. Strong support lies at 3520.
-- Or NQ could open above 3570, then run up to test Friday's swing high.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Guideline For Friday

The Fed's buying algorithm should continue into the new year, albeit, in a slow and choppy fashion simply because most investors are already long the market. Fed's buying should continue into the new year just to make sure that Janet Yellin looks good when she officially take over the Chairmanship from Ben Bernanke in January 2014.

However, major indices are now in overbought condition on the daily chart, and may or may not pullback until the new year, so unless the market breaks major support the uptrend should continue.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Guideline For Tuesday

NQ opened with a gap-up and trend-up all day on Monday. The market is now in overbought territory on the daily chart and may attract some profit-taking selling, 

But with the holidays ahead of us, the Fed buying algorithm will be in full speed to ensure that the market continues to go up. If so, the trend may just continue to go up without much pullback, albeit in slow motion.

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Guideline For Monday

NQ continued to rally on Friday as the shorts continued to get squeezed. The equity market should continue  to rally into Christmas and the New year as the Fed buy programs should be going into high gear making sure that the market would look good for the Christmas and the New Year holidays.
NQ (overnight trading) is currently trading much higher than Friday's high, and may opens with a gap-up. If so, Friday's swing high will be the first support, then Friday's close will be second support.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Guideline For Friday - NQ

Keep in mind that Friday tends to be a bullish day. In addition, the Fed buyers will want to hold the market up going into the weekend and into the new year, and they are going to spend whatever amount of money it takes to keep the market up, so unless the market breaks down below certain key support level, the trend is up.

Short-term key support level is 3475.
-- Staying above 3475 keeps NQ in a bullish mode. If so I will be looking for an up day or a sideways consolidation pattern on Friday.
-- A clear and sustained break below 3475 is bearish, looking for it to drop down to supports, first support at 3455 then 3430.

The Fed's current trade is to Sell Gold - Buy Equities - The smart thing to do is to continue to follow the Fed. At some point, however, any manipulated market will revert to its mean - the trades will get reversed, and then we must reverse our trades accordingly.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Guideline For Thursday

As mentioned in yesterday's blog, the Fed buyers were ready to buy the market, but no one in the right mind could ever imagine the monstrous size of the Fed buy programs that were engineered immediately after the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, designed to panic the short-sellers and send them back into hiding.

The Fed's actions, more blatant and more desperate, clearly demonstrates that the end game, either a deflationary collapse or a hyper-inflationary collapse, and the end of the Federal Reserve, is coming near, their action becoming more and more desperate. On one hand, they announced tapering of their QE, but on the other hand, they spends billions and billions of dollars buying up the markets.

Whether or not the Fed buying binge on Wednesday would continue on Thursday and beyond, and more importantly, whether or not they can attract  new buyers into the market that could help propel the market into higher highs on Thursday and into the near future, we just have to wait. As with any manipulated market, all we can do is to trade price actions

For Thursday, key price level to watch for is 3475.
-- Pullbacks that can stay above 3475 will attract buyers, target higher high above Wednesday swing high.
-- A clear and sustained break below 3475 will turn buyers into sellers, targeting Wednesday's swing low.


Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Guideline For Wednesday

The Fed will be releasing their FOMC decision in the afternoon on Wednesday. The market may continue to be choppy until their release and then the market should move one way or the other soon after.

The market has factored in a No-Tapering decision.
-- Any hint of tapering could cause a sell-off, and no tapering could also cause a sell-off, but the Fed buyers will be ready with their buy programs.
-- The market may rally if the fed hint a potential increase in their bond purchase in the future.

Key inflection price level to watch for on Wednesday is still 3475.

Monday, December 16, 2013

Guideline For Tuesday - NQ March 2014

A large gap-up opening for NQ on Monday was successful in triggering a fast short-covering rally, but once the Fed buying and short-covering frenzy ended the market dropped back down to 3475 support , eventually broke below support  in the afternoon.

NQ closed below 3475 support, and if NQ does not re-break back above 3475 on Tuesday it may trigger another round of selling. 
Whether it will trend down on Tuesday ahead of the FOMC meeting it is very difficult to say, only time will tell, but the Fed is surely be actively buying the market ahead of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.

Key inflection price level on Tuesday in NQ is 3475.
-- Resistance is 3500
-- Supports are 3455 and 3435. 

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Guideline For Monday

Thursday and Friday were two narrow-range sideways consolidation day following a large range down-day on Wednesday - they were "paused" days, that should be followed by either a large-range down day or a large-range short-covering reversal up-day.

The direction of the move will depends on where NQ will trade in relation to the last 2 consolidation days.

1) Clear and sustained break below Friday low is an indication that we may get a large-range down day on Monday. This is assuming it can break the first support which is around 3425 area. Strong support lies at 3400, and it would need a very bearish internals to break 3400 support.

2) A clear and sustained break above 3480 could trigger a short-covering rally, with next resistance at 3500

3) Staying inside  the 3450 - 3480 trading range would implies another day of choppy sideways market.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Guideline For Friday

NQ stayed below 3480 key resistance and traded sideways between 3480 resistance and 3455 support. The trading range 3455 - 3480 will become very important on Friday.

First we must remember that Friday is usually a bullish day as short-sellers tends to close their position by going long. However, with such strong selling pressure NQ would need to clearly break and stay above 3480 resistance to trigger a strong short-covering rally.

Staying in between 3455 and 3480 implies more consolidation. 3455 is a very strong support for NQ. However, should it clearly break and stay below 3455 it should attract a lot of selling, next support is 3420 then 3400.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Guideline For Thursday - mainly NQ

Wednesday was a profit-taking day for the bulls worried about the Fed's QE taper talk and the implementation of the Volker Rule. The sell-off continued all day without much pause.
Whether or not the Fed buyers would come in strong on Thursday it is very difficult to forecast because we are not dealing with free market, all we can do is watch price levels. 

Key price level for Thursday is 3480.
-- Below 3480 is an indication NQ is going to either consolidate sideways or continue to selloff. Next support is 3455 area.
-- A clear and sustained break above 3480 has the potential to trigger a short-covering rally, next resistance is 3500

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Guideline For Trading NQ - on Wednesday

Another very narrow range sideways action on Tuesday. The market  needs some pullback-down move to generate larger trading range, simply because all the shorts that wants to cover are all out of the market, and most of the buyers that wants to buy has bought. 

That left mostly the Fed buyers pushing the market up day in day out, and without any major new participants, the up move is going to be small and slow.

NQ closed at its key price level on Tuesday, and after two day of consolidation NQ may be ready to make a bigger move - upwards, but only if it can find lots of new buyers. And as long as it can stay above 3515 NQ is either going to continue to trade sideways or rally up to the next upside target - 3535.

Trading below 3515 is an indication NQ is going for a larger pullback down, next support 3500.

Monday, December 9, 2013

Guideline For Tuesday - NQ

With the Fed determined to push the market up into the new year, NQ should continue to move higher -- with the market usual opening with a gap-up and then trade sideways for the rest of the day.
The pattern should continue, so the current trade is to go long near the close and exit at the opening gap-up open, until of course it stopped working

NQ key support level for Tuesday is 3510.
-- Above 3510 implies the market should continue to make higher-high before pulling back down. 
-- Below 3510 is an indication that NQ is pulling back down to lower support level, 3500.

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Guideline For Monday

A gap-up open for NQ on Friday. With Janet Yellin taking over as Fed Chairperson in January the Fed is going to continue to spend massive amount of capital buying the market to make it looks like the market likes her. 

Whether or not the market will continue to rally into the end of the year only time will tell, but the Fed actual monthly QE amount is currently much more than 85 billion, it is in fact about 200 billion a month and is likely going to increase as we nears Janet Yellin's inauguration.

More money creation implies more rallies and faster upward momentum in the stock market and many other tangible assets as the dollar continues to collapse - not collapsing against the other currencies but against real assets - except precious metals as the Fed trade is Buy Stocks - Sell Precious metals. The trade is going to continue until the whole system collapses.

Here is how the stock market looks like during a currency collapse.... up up up up faster and faster

In the short-term, NQ key price level for Monday is 3505.
-- Above implies NQ is still going up to its next target, 3550 area.
-- Below 3505 implies consolidation before going back up again. Target down is 3490-3495. 

*** -- Only a clear and sustained break below 3490 implies wave 5 up - on the 60-minute chart, which started from the November 17 swing low, has ended. If so, we look for ABC correction wave down that will retraced the entire move up from the November 17 low to the current high.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Guideline For friday - NQ

Another  sideways consolidation on Thursday trading between 3470 support and 3490 resistance for NQ, and looking more and more like a distribution pattern. 

There seems to be a lot of buying algorithm as NQ dropped down to 3470 on Thursday. As long as NQ does not clearly break below 3470 it should continue to trade sideways or upwards. 

Breaking down clearly below 3470 however, will change the buying algo into selling algo, with the next major support not until 3425 

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Guideline For Wednesday- NQ

Another sideways consolidation day for NQ on Tuesday. At the end of the day it looks ready to rally back up to re-test Monday's swing high. To do so, it has to clearly break above 3485 resistance 

Failure to break and stay above 3485 implies more consolidation or downtrend. To trend down, NQ would need to clearly break below 3455-3460 support zone.

Next strong support is not until 3420-3425, although there is some support at 3435.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Guideline For Tuesday - NQ

NQ traded sideways on Monday, with a close just at inflection price level level 3485, support is at 3475 and resistance is at 3490. It can of course continue to consolidate unless it can clearly break out of the 3475 - 3490 trading range.

A break that fails would implies a reversal targeting a break through the opposite support/resistance.

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Guideline For Monday

With the new Fed chairperson taking over in the new year it is in the Fed's best interest to continue to push the market up to make sure that Janet Yellin looks well liked by the market.

Whether or not the Fed buy programs will continue to rally the market into Christmas and the new year only time will tell, but they will definitely try their best. For now, the Fed is causing panic buying as the short-sellers starts to capitulate and covers.

Whether or not the current rally is the beginning of the hyperinflation it is difficult to determine but the US stock market does looks like Zimbabwe stock market index at the beginning of their hyperinflationary collapse. 

The Fed CANNOT taper their QE, instead, the Fed has to increase the amount of their QE


Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Guideline For Wednesday - NQ

With the US thanksgiving holiday just a few days away the market may just continue to rally with or without any pullback.

Key support for Wednesday is 3435. 
-- As long as pullback does not clearly violate 3435 support, the uptrend should continue, with the next upside target at 3475.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Guideline For Tuesday - NQ

A very narrow range choppy day on Monday for NQ, a pause day after two days of non-stop uptrend. Whether it will lead to another uptrend day on Tuesday or a pullback down day, will depends on where NQ trades in relation to its key support/resistance level.

Key support/resistance price level for Tuesday is 3430.
-- Above 3430 is an indication NQ is going for another uptrending short-covering day, with the next upside target at 3450.
-- Below 3430 implies a pullback down day, with support at 3415 and 3400.


Sunday, November 24, 2013

Guideline For Monday

As expected, Friday was a bullish day, with NQ opening with a gap-up and then trend up all day, closing neat the high of the day.

With expectation of increasing QE sooner rather than later, the market should continue to be very bullish moving forward.

Whether or not we would get morning pullback before rocketing back up, only time will tell and it will depends on where NQ trades in relation to its inflection price level.

For Monday, inflection price level is 3415 area.
-- Trading above 3415 implies NQ is trending up to its next target levels, 3425, then 3450.
-- Below 3415 is an indication that NQ is going into a pullback consolidation mode before resuming the next uptrend. Support on any pullback is 3400. 

We must not get fooled by the Fed Taper talk shenanigan. Fed's taper talk is intended to delay the inevitable collapse of the US dollar. 

With more and more countries abandoning/dumping the US dollar/bond, the Fed as the only buyer in town, has to step in a buy them back. Bigger and bigger QE is on the way until the US dollar collapses, because tapering QE or simply not increasing QE will results in the following nightmare scenarios no one wants to see happens. 
1. Skyrocketing interest rates
2. Collapsing stock market
3. Collapsing real estate market.
4. Skyrocketing debt service payments.
5. Massive US dollar appreciation that will destroy the US economy.
6. Deflationary depression

Perpetual and ever increasing QE is extreme bullish for the stock market. Just look at the Zimbabwe's recent experience.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Guideline For Friday

A gap-up and trend up day for NQ on Thursday, the high bumping against resistance, and the closing price was just below the day high - bullish momentum going into the close.

Keep in mind that Friday is usually a bullish day, and as long as NQ does not clearly break below key support, it should continue to rally up to the next resistance -- a gap-up open or an early morning pullback to support and then rally into the close.

Inflection Price Level For NQ on Friday = 3395, key support = 3385.
-- Above 3395 is an indication NQ will try to rally up to the next resistance, if it can break above 3405 or gap-up open above 3405. Next resistance and target is 3420. It would need a very bullish market internals to break above 3420.
-- Breaking below 3395 is in indication that NQ is going to consolidate prior to rallying up to the next resistance 33420, assuming that it can break through resistance at 3405.

Janet Yellin - the extreme money printer - as the next Fed Chairperson

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Guideline for Thursday - NQ

At 2:00 PM the Fed's minutes were released and indicated that the Fed would start to taper at one of its next few meetings even if the job market hasn't improved enough. many investors decided to take profit - caused the market to tanked into the close.
Whether or not profit-taking would continue tomorrow, only time will tall, but as short-term traders, we should be looking at price actions and price levels.

For Thursday, key price level will be 3370.
-- Trading clearly above 3370 is an indication that NQ may be going into a pullback - rally mode, with resistance at 3382.50 area, then 3400.
-- NQ is vulnerable to more selling pressure below 3370. Next support down is 3345. If the market gets very bearish, next support down is 3320.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Trade Guideline For Wednesday - NQ

Tuesday was a second pullback down day for the US indices, as can be seen on the daily chart. If the current uptrend on the daily chart is still alive, the market should rally on Wednesday.

Key price level for NQ on Wednesday is 3375.
--, NQ is bullish above 3375, with first resistance at 3400. A clear and sustained break above 3400 could trigger a fast short-covering rally.
-- NQ is bearish below 3375, next support is 3365, and then 3345, 3335.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Guideline For Tuesday - NQ

After making a higher-high soon after the open on Monday, NQ then pullback down to support 3405 area. NQ then traded sideways until late afternoon before breaking down below support.

Breaking below support trigger some algo selling running over trailing stoploss causing NQ to tank hard. For Tuesday NQ is either going to make a lower-low right away in the morning, or, rally then tank to lower low. 

Key price level for Tuesday morning is 3387.50.
-- NQ to rally up to resistance 3400 - 3405.
-- Below 3387.50 implies NQ is going to make a lower low before pulling back up . Next support  is 3365.

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Guideline For Monday - NQ

NQ made another higher-high on Monday. The markets, Nasdaq, S&P, Dow, are now entering a blow-off phase of the uptrend, once completed should lead to a sharp collapse. 

Where and from what level it will collapse is very difficult to forecast as trend can go on much longer most people think.

But for now, as long as the market does not violates key technical support, the uptrend should continue. The short-term support for the current uptrend in NQ is 3400 with the next upside target at 3450.

Inflection price level for Monday is 3415.
-- Above 3415 the next target up is 3450.
-- NQ is going into consolidation mode below 3415, support is 3400-3405.

The bulls are currently in charge

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Guideline For Trading NQ on Friday

As expected, with Janet Yellin appearing before the  senate, and with the Fed buy programs,  NQ continued to rally and made another higher high on Thursday. 
Friday is usually a bullish day but it is possible that the market consolidates in the morning. And as long as consolidation does not clearly violate key support, it should rally back up to make another higher high.

Key support for Friday is 3390

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Guideline For NQ on Thursday

The market rocketed up on Wednesday ahead of Janet Yellin's appearance before the senate on Thursday, most certainly the courtesy of gigantic Fed's buying programs.
For Thursday, with Yellin in front of the senate, it is very hard to think that the Fed will not continue to buy the market in order to make things looks rosy.

Key support for the current uptrend to continue on Thursday is 3380.
-- Above 3380 NQ should continue to rally.
-- In the unlikely event that NQ clearly break below 3380, other supports below are 3365, 3350.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Guideline For Wednesday - NQ

Another narrow-range sideways pattern for NQ on Tuesday. For Wednesday support is still at 3350 and resistance at 3365.

Trading range = 3350-3365
-- A sustained break out of the range could cause a trending move in the direction of the break.
-- As always, be on the lookout for a false-breakout of the range. Note that a false-breakout will result in a reversal to test the opposite range support/resistance.

Monday, November 11, 2013

Guideline for Tuesday - NQ

With most traders out of the office for the holiday Monday, trading was light, with a very narrow trading range. 
With most traders back at their trading desk on Tuesday, the market could make a trending move, the direction will depends on where it traders in relation to support/resistance price level.

Resistance = 3365, Support - 3350.
-- Potential short-covering above 3365, resistances are 3380, 3395.
-- Bearish below 3350, with supports at 3335, 3315.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Guideline For Friday

Friday is usually a bullish day as short-sellers covers their position for the weekend. For this weekend, with a very large and broad sell-off on Thursday, it is difficult to say whether or not traders will be inclined to cover their short ahead of the weekend.
Key price level to watch on Friday in NQ is 3335.
-- A clear and sustained break above 3335 could trigger short-covering rally, with resistance at 3360.
-- Inability to clearly break above 3335 could attract more selling pressure, with the next support at 2290-2300, but if the market internals get very bearish, the next support - strong support - is 2250. 

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Thursday's Guideline For NQ

On Wednesday, after opening with a large gap-up then immediately tanking down to support in the morning, NQ traded sideways all day closing right at key support, 3375, also key level for Thursday's trading.

NQ looks set for the next declining leg on Thursday. If so, it should open and stay below 3375 on Thursday morning. Supports are 3360 and then 3350, 3340.
--Trading above 3375 is an indication NQ is going to rally up to test the recent high, resistance zone is still at 3390-3395. 

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Guideline For Wednesday - NQ

NQ has been stuck between 3355-3360 support and 3390-3395 resistance for the last two weeks. The market is fairly overbought at the current level on the daily chart, so there is not many buyers left to buy that can cause the market to rocket back up in a trending mode unless short-sellers are forced to cover, without which, NQ may continue to stay inside the range. 

It would require a clear and sustained break out of the range, above 3395 and below 3355, to cause a trending move in the direction of the break.

Inflection price level for Wednesday is 3375, with resistance at 3390-3395, and support at 3355-3360. 

Monday, November 4, 2013

Guideline For Tuesday - NQ

On Monday, NQ opened with a gap-up inside prior day range. It quickly tanked to closed the gap that was then followed by a bounce back up to re-test broken support-turned resistance 3380.

As expected, with a balanced opening, NQ stayed inside prior day range all day, closing just above key inflection price level, 3375 for Tuesday, with resistance at 3380 and support at 3360, trading range 3360 - 3380.

A clear break out of the range could cause NQ to go to the next support/resistance level.

Next resistance above 3380 = 3390
Next support below 3360 = 3350.

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Guideline For Monday

For NQ, Key Inflection Price Level For Monday is 3370
-- Resistance at 3380
-- Support at 3360

NQ looks set to go down, but in order to do so it would need to clearly break below support 3360 and 3350 to attract more selling.

On the other hand, a clear break above 3380 could trigger a short-covering rally.

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Guideline For Friday

At the end of the day on Thursday all major equity futures including NQ, ES and YM were all sitting at key support area, either a break and trend down on Friday or rally back up again to re-test the recent high.

Because Friday is normally a bullish day, and as long as key support is not violated, I will be looking for either a sideways consolidation pattern for Friday or a rally back up to test the recent high.

Key support for NQ is 3365, and 1751 for ES and 15,490 for YM. 
-- A clear and sustained break below support can cause a liquidation drop, with NQ next support at 3350 and 3335.
-- Above 3365 NQ should rally up to resistance at 3385 then 3395.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Guideline For Thursday

On Wednesday the market sold off hard after the release of the FOMC minutes, but as usual the Fed came in very aggressively buying the futures market after the regular market is closed.

The sell-off may have been real, and that the market is going into a down-trending mode for a while starting Wednesday, with or without a test. Although it is still very early to make the call particularly in a very strong up-trending market, the sell-off looks real. 

Key price level to watch for going on Thursday and going forward is 3382.50 in NQ and 1760 in ES. 
-- Above 3382.50 implies NQ uptrend on the daily chart is still intact. If so, we look for NQ to make another higher high.
-- Below 3382.50 is  an indication that NQ is going into a pullback down mode on the daily chart. Next support is 3350, then 3320

Monday, October 28, 2013

Guideline For Tuesday - NQ

A narrow-range inside day for NQ on Monday. For Tuesday, as long as it can stay above support the uptrend should continue. 

For Tuesday morning NQ support will be at 3070.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Guideline For Monday - NQ

After making a new higher high above Tuesday's swing high NQ quickly reversed back down to the balance point. It then traded sideways into the close. 

Key inflection level for Monday is 3377 area.
-- Above 3377 is an indication NQ is continuing back up to make another higher-high above Friday's swing high.
-- Below 3377 implies there is another down leg following Friday's afternoon sideways action. If so support is again at 3350. 

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Guideline For Friday

Nasdaq (NQ) rallied above key resistance 3350 during the morning run, and then stay above 3350all day setting up a rally to Tuesday's swing high.

Key price level is for Friday is now 3377.50.
-- More rally above 3377.50 should continue to trigger short-covering rally, with resistance at 3390-3400.
-- Below 3372.50 implies NQ is going into a pullback down mode, with support now at 3350.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Guideline For Thursday

For the second say in a row the market trend down in the morning and then spent the rest of the day trading sideways, forming another bear flag. If so, look for another downtrend on Thursday.

Key Price level For Thursday is 3335.
-- A clear break below 3335 implies the sideways pattern is a bear flag, with 3300 as the next downside target. 
-- Above 3335 is an indication NQ is still in consolidation mode, resistance is at 3350.
-- A clear break above 3350 negates bear flag pattern. If so, the upside target is Tuesday's swing high.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Guideline For Wednesday

After making a higher high in the morning and then tanked, NQ spent the rest of the day trading sideways, forming a bear flag. If so it should lead to another down-leg on Wednesday.

Key level to watch for on Wednesday is 3358.
-- Below 3358 is bearish, and an indication the bear flag is going to lead to another downleg, with the next support at 3335, then 3300.
-- Bullish above 3358, and implies a potential higher high is coming, with NQ resistance at 3390 - 3400.

Monday, October 21, 2013

Guideline For Tuesday

Monday was a consolidation day, with the market taking a breather, staying inside a narrow trading range following a large up-week last week. 

Both NQ and ES are now at resistance on the daily chart, and a larger pullback down is likely to come soon. However, because the current uptrend is still very strong, as long as support is not violated, a consolidation day is a setup for the next trending move once pullback ends.

Inflection price level for Tuesday is 3350, support is at 3335
-- Above 3350 implies the uptrend is still in progress, next upside target is higher-high above Monday's high.
-- Below 3350 is an indication that Monday's pullback is still in progress, support is 3335. a clear break below 3335 implies NQ is going into a large pullback down with the next target at 3280 area.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Monday Guideline - NQ

NQ is in a blow-off mode to the upside, with the shorts stampeding to get out their short position and those funds still on the sideline, worried to be left behind, were also stampeding to get into the equity market, resulting in a relentless up-trending market.

It should continue to go up for a while, with or without a pullback, before the momentum slows down. Where and when this buying frenzy will end is very difficult to say, but once everyone is on board, the market then collapses in a fast way.

For Monday as long as support holds, it should continue to go up and make a higher high.

Key inflection price level for Monday in NQ is 3335.
-- Above 3335 implies NQ is still in a fast mode up.
-- Below 3335 is an indication NQ is in a pullback down mode, with support at 3325 before going back up. A clear and sustained break below 3325 implies NQ is going into a larger down-move.

Currently the bulls are in firm control

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Friday Guideline - NQ

The market continued to go higher on Thursday as the shorts continued to cover following the agreement on the debt ceiling issue. The shorts should continue to cover on Friday as the bulls are currently in charge, so NQ should continue to go higher, with or without a pullback, as long as it does not violate key level.
Key Level For NQ on Friday is 3290.
-- Above 3290 is an indication that the current uptrend is still in progress and the next target up is 3350.
-- Below 3290 implies NQ is in a pullback mode down, support at 3275

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Guideline For Thursday

NQ rallied early in the morning in anticipation of the agreement on the debt ceiling deal, then spent the rest of the day consolidating sideways. Once consolidation / pullback ends, and as long as it did not violate key support, it should resume its uptrend.

Key inflection level for Thursday is 3265.
-- Above 3265 is an indication of strength, look for NQ to trend up to above Wednesday's swing high.
-- Below 3265 implies the pullback is still in progress, and the next support zone is 3250-3255. A clear break below 3250 implies NQ is going into a larger pullback down, next support is 3230.

Debt ceiling deal has been reach.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Guideline For Wednesday

On Wednesday, after making a higher high above Monday's swing NQ pullback down and consolidated for the rest of the day, setting up either a morning uptrend or a downtrend, depending on where it opens and trades in the morning in relation to it key inflection level.

Key inflection zone for Wednesday is 3247.
-- Above 3247 is an indication that NQ is going back up, resistance is now at 3270 area.
-- Bearish below 3247 with supports at 3200 and 3185

No agreement yet on the debt ceiling debacle



Monday, October 14, 2013

Tuesday Guideline

Another trending-up day on Monday with NQ making a higher high above prior swing high. For Tuesday it is likely that algo traders may want to gap the opening price up clearly above 3251 prior high to cause a short-covering spike, but anything can happen between tonight and the open.

Key price level to watch for on Tuesday is 3251 area.
-- Above 3251 can cause a short-covering spike or rally with the next resistance at 3260 area but it can easily break above that resistance if a break above 3251 can trigger short-covering rally.
-- Breaking back below 3251, which will become support in the event that price opens or breaks above 3251 in the morning, is bearish and cause cause a fast liquidation decline, with support at 3220 and 3200

With Obama determined to push the US into defaulting on the debt so he can destroy the republican party, we are not expecting any deal soon, but anything can happen, so always be on the lookout for the unexpected.


Gold - Head & Shoulder Pattern = Bearish

Gold is currently in a head & Shoulder pattern on the daily chart, and, as long as the pattern is intact, the downside target for gold is 1180 area.

The Head & Shoulder pattern will be negated on a sustained break above 1375 area.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Guideline For Monday - NQ

Last week's Wednesday's trend reversal, on the appointment of ultra-money printer Janet Yelling as the new Fed Chairman, continued into Friday.

It may be ready to go into a pullback-down mode on Monday, but where it opens will determine whether we will get the pullback in the morning or in the afternoon.

Key level For Monday = 3225
-- Above 3225 implies NQ is still going up before pulling back down. Next target up is a break above prior swing high 3250
-- Below 3225 is an indication NQ is going to a pullback-down move before going up again. Key support on any pullback is 3200

Traders will be watching October 17 debt default deadline.
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Thursday, October 10, 2013

Guideline For Friday

A large gap-up open on Thursday, wave 3 up opening, triggered short-covering rally that lasted all day, with a small profit-taking decline into the close. Friday is usually a bullish day, typically with some selling in the morning and then rally into the afternoon as traders will cover their shorts ahead of the weekend. 

Whether or not all the short-covering has been exhausted by Thursday's massive rally, only time will tell, and will depends on where it opens and trades in the early morning

Key level for Friday is 3200 for NQ.
-- Opening and trading above 3200 on Friday morning should continue to trigger short-covering rally.
-- Below 3200, however, implies NQ is going into a consolidation mode.

Debt ceiling debate is going to continue influence market action.