Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Trade Guideline For Wednesday (Nasdaq NQ)

A large gap-up open on Tuesday implies it was most likely (but not necessary) wave 3 gap. If so, end of day selling was wave A of 4 (see chart below).

If the end of day selling was the beginning of wave 4, then it should not retrace down by more than 50% and it should not break below the the high of wave 1 swing high. If so, I will look for wave 5 to break above wave 3 swing high before reversing back down. One likely target for wave 5 is 2300, which happens to be prior Point-of-Control, (now resistance).

A clear break below 2210 before making a high high (wave 5) implies Monday and Tuesday's uptrend has reversed, and the bigger degree downtrend has resumed, with downside target of 2190, 2170 then 2145. On a hard downtrend, NQ is likely to break below prior swing low (2145)