Trade Guideline for Friday (NQ)

The current short-term market direction is influenced by the debt ceiling game show currently being played by the US congress. We must understand that the show must go on to show their reluctance in raising the debt ceiling in order to merely delay the inevitable collapse of the US dollar hence the US empire itself. The debt ceiling will be raised and the US dollar collapse will happen, it is just a matter of time.

It is possible, although not necessary that the US dollar would rally temporarily if congress can cut some spending. For a longer-term direction of the market I would look to the direction of the US dollar itself once the debt ceiling is agreed upon, whatever it may be.

Carry trades in the US dollar is a major influence on the direction of the equity market in general. A rally in the US dollar (appreciating dollar) is bearish for the market because it would unwind the dollar carry trades, and a further depreciation of the US dollar (weakening dollar) is bullish for the market as it would further intensify the dollar carry trades..

Until the decision is made, the market will continue to stay inside the trading range that started in February, for NQ it is between 2200 to 2400 area. For Friday's market direction I will use 2365 as key support/resistance level for Friday,

• Bullish above that level, targeting a rally to 2385, then 2400
• Bearish below it, target a decline to below Thursday's low down to 2330 - 2340 area.