Thursday, August 28, 2014

Guideline For Friday

Another choppy narow range low voluem day on Thursday. On Frday ahead of the loong labout day weekend the market tends to be choppy and narrow range as most traders are off for the long weekend.

Absent any unexpected even the choppy narrow range pattern should continue on Friday. Inflection price level for Friday is 4070.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Guideline For Thursday

NQ again traded sideways in a very narrow trading range on Wednesday on very low volume. 

Absent any buyers except the Fed HFT trading machine designed to keep pushing the markets higher, and absent any short-seller until the Fed gets out of the way, the current pattern of very choppy and narrow range day is going to continue, unless the conditions change.

Key inflection price level for Thursday is 4070 in NQ.
-- Next upside is 4100
-- First support is 4060

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Guideline For Wednesday

Another slow choppy very narrow-range low volume up day for NQ on Tuesday because without a decent pullback down there is no new buyers to buy and no short-sellers to cover to cause a strong upmove, as the only buyer in town is the Fed HFT machine programmed to keep the market up into the long labour day weekend.

Absent any big sellers the market may continue to chop higher into the weekend.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Wednesday is 4070.
-- Bullish bias above 4070 with the next target up is a break above Monday's swing high, next whole number resistance is 4100.
-- Below 3970 it may drop down to the next support zone 4060 the 4050.

Monday, August 25, 2014

Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday, NQ opened with a gap-up to another higher-high on the daily chart, then after a choppy early morning rally, profit-taking set-in droppign NQ down to support before bouncing back up to re-test the opening price from below.

NQ market looks tired and may be ready for another pullback-down day before rallying for the long lanour day weekend.

Key inflection price level for Tuesday is 4060.
-- Staying above 4060 is an indication NQ is going to make another higher-high above Monday's swing high before pulling abck down.
-- Trading below 4060 implies NQ is going into a larger pullback-down mode, next support is 4045-4050.

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Guideline For Monday

A sideways consolidation day for NQ on Friday. With the S&P 500 Futures (ES) just breaking out above its prior swing high (July high 1985 area) during this coming week, ES either rocket up if short-covering is triggered which should drag all the other major indices with it, or it pullback down dragging all the other indices down with it, which is it going to be we have to wait for this coming week. Key price inflection level on the daily chart for the ES is 1985 -- bullish above it, bearish below it.

NQ key price level for Monday is 4050.
-- Looking for more rally above it, a choppy rally or a strong rally if short-covering can get triggered in the ES market.
-- Trading below 4050 may trigger a long overdue pullback, with first target down of 4020-4030 area support. As long as 4020-4030 support hold, we should see another higher-high.

Cycle top on the daily chart is expected to occur during the week of September 1 for a larger daily pullback, expected to be a multi-months pullback ahead of the annual year end santa clause rally.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Guideline For Friday

Another choppy very narrow range day for NQ on Thursday. Without any new buyers and without any more shorts left to cover, the only buyer left is the Fed HFT trading machine hard at work to make sure the market does not sell-off while the Fed meets in Jackson Hole.

Last week Friday the market had a very large sell-off in the morning followed by afternoon rally that continued all week this week.

We could see the same pattern repeated tomorrow Friday, sell-off in the morning followed by a rally.

Key inflection price for Friday is 4040
-- Continued choppy small range rally above 4040.
-- Sell-off below 4040, first support is 4020, then 4000.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Guideline For Thursday

NQ made another higher-high on Wednesday but traded sideways in a very narrow trading range, and looked ready for a larger pullback down. However, due to the currently extreme bullish market condition any pullback may get bought very quickly unless it is accompanied by bearish market internals.

Key price level for NQ on Thursday is 4035.
-- Staying above 4035 implies NQ is still in rally mode, next target is still 4050-4060
-- Breaking below 4035 could run-over some trailing stioplosses that could quicky tank it down to the next support 4020. It would take some extreme bearish internal to clearly break below 4020. If so the next support is 3990

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Guideline For Wednesday

Another very narrow-range short-covering up-day again on Tuesday. Without any buyers left except for the Fed themselves, and without any shorts left to cover, the markets continued to rally very slowly. 

Without any pullbacks the pattern of slow and choppy narrow-range rally type of day should continue, next upside target for NQ is still 4050-4060, a major target zone that could attract some profit-taking selling.

NQ key support for Wednesday is 4015-4020.

Monday, August 18, 2014

Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday, NQ opened with a large gap-up, forcing shorts to cover, triggering a brief small rally in the morning. Without any new fresh buyers NQ spent most of the day trading sideways in a very narrow range.

On the daily chart, Monday was the 7th up-day in a row for NQ from its August 8th low, so it may be ready for a 1 to 2 days pullback. With most shorts out of the market, without a pullback day it may just chop its way higher unless there are fresh buyers coming into the market.

On the 60-minute chart we have a 5-wave rally for NQ from its Augusr 8th low, so an ABC-wave pattern pulback is overdue and could come at anytime. As long as there is no severe pullback, NQ should continue to rally, next big target for NQ on the daily chart is 4050

Key support for NQ on Tuesday is 3990-3995.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Guideline For Monday

On Friday, NQ opened with a big gap-up and then after a brief rally above breakout level (3990), was agressively sold, tanking NQ down to support. 

Agressive buying by the Fed managed to push NQ back up to the opening price level by the close, setting up either a short-covering rally to above Friday's high or pulling back down to Friday's low..

Key price level for NQ on Monday will be 3990, prior swing high on the daily chart.
-- If NQ can stay above 3990 it could trigger another round of short-covering rally.
-- Failure to break-back and staying above 3990 could trigger another round of selling, with first support at 3970, then 3945. Strong support is at 3918 area.