NQ Daily Trend Guide

Nasdaq NQ bump into 2920 resistance zone on Thursday and Friday, pulling back down to support on both days. That makes 2920 as key resistance on Monday, as failure to clearly break above resistance  implies NQ may go into a pullback-down mode on Monday.

Support on Monday are 2900, 2890, 2875, 2860 

Trade Guideline For Thursday.

NQ opened with a big gap-up above resistance 2875, but failed to trigger any large short-covering rally, as NQ simply traded in a very narrow-range above broken resistance-turned support all day. 

Key level to watch for is 2875 broken resistance now support.

-- Above 2875 implies continual consolidation or rally up to the next resistance level 2910-2910.

-- A clear and sustained break below 2875 may attract selling and could tank NQ down to support levels, 2860 or down to lower level 2844.

Capitulation decline in Gold, look for snap-back rally soon.

Trade Guideline For Wednesday

After rallying strongly from the day low on Monday, the market consolidated and traded sideways on Tuesday, setting up a potential trending move on Wednesday if it breaks out of the range.

The direction of the move will depends on where it trades on Wednesday, with the closing price right in the middle of range, NQ could go either way, with key resistance at 2875, key support at 2845.

With stop-losses congregating just above 2875, a sustained break above 2875 resistance could trigger a short-covering rally, next resistance is 2905-2910. 

However, failure to clearly break above 2875 could attract selling which could drops prices down to re-test Tuesday's swing low. A break below 2845 could trigger liquidation decline.

Gold still in a strong downtrend also traded sideways on Tuesday, setting up a big drop on Wednesday, supports are 1240 and 1180

Trade Guideline for Tuesday

The market rallied sharply in the afternoon, but pulling back down at the end of the day, retracing 50% of the afternoon rally for NQ. 

The pattern on the 5-minute chart is set to open with a gap-up and trend up on Tuesday. However, the daily trend is still in a strong down mode, which may negate the 5-minute bullish chart pattern.

Key resistance for Tuesday is 2870-2875 area, support is 2830-2835.

-- A clear and sustained break above 2875 could trigger a fast short-covering rally with target at 2905-2910.

-- Below 2875 implies NQ is going back down to support 2830-2835. Below 2830 implies the daily downtrend is still in progress, and a break below Monday low could trigger another round of liquidation drop.

Bond market is still in sharp selloff

Trade Guideline For Monday

NQ dropped down to support on the daily chart on Friday, 2850, before reversing back up and closed in the middle of the range. Friday was the third consecutive down days, so unless the trend down is extremely strong NQ should stay above 2850 support, and pullback up to resistance, 2905-2910 area before going back down again to continue the downtrend.

Although not expected, a clear and sustained break above 2910 could trigger a short-covering rally, back up to re-test 3000 resistance zone.

On the other hand, a clear and sustained break below Friday low implies the current decline is a very powerful one. If so, NQ is heading straight down to lower support before pulling back up, the next downside target is 2800 support.

Gold continued to stay in sell mode, with a large gap-down and sold-off hard into 1290 support on Thursday, stayed above 1290 support on Friday. 

How much bounce should we see from 1290 support only time will tell. Key resistance is now 1350 area. Failure to bounce sharply above 1290 would attract aggressive selling which can take gold price down to lower support levels, 1240 and 1180

Trade Guideline For Thursday

The Fed hinted that they will reduce QE at the end of the year and may stop QE by next year. On that note the market sold-off hard into the close. 

Unless opinion of market participants  change overnight, and the Fed came into the market and aggressively buy stocks, the annual summer market sell-off may have just begun on Wednesday.

Key Level tp watch for on Thursday is 2985 for Nasdaq NQ and 1642 for ES (S&P 500 Futures)

-- Below 2985 + 1642 the stock market sell-off should continue

-- Above  key level implies the bull market is still alive, targeting a re-test of may swing high.

Gold sold-off hard into the close, breaking below prior swing low. Gold price needs to recover and trade back above 1360 to stabilize gold price. Failure to do so has the potential to trigger a massive algorithm sell orders that can crash gold price down very quickly, the next downside target is $1,240, but it could easily overshoot down as panic selling sets in.

Trade Guideline For Wednesday

Nasdaq continued to trend higher on Tuesday ahead of FOMC statement on Wednesday. Traders and investors will be looking for a major change in the FOMC statement

Without any significant change in FOMC statement the market may go into the usual summer selling mode that would last until September or October. Whether or not it will start on Wednesday only time will tell, but key level to watch for on Wednesday is 2965 support area

-- .Above 2970, the uptend is still in progress, targeting a move up to re-test May swing high

-- A clear and sustained break below 2965 implies NQ is reversing back down. 

Trading Guideline For Tuesday

NQ opened with a gap-up and then rallied up to resistance in the morning before reversing back down towards the gap-close, missed closing the gap due to end of day profit-taking rally into the close.

For Tuesday support is 2950 and resistance is 2985. 

Trading inside the range implies potential sideways consolidation ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting as traders wait for Wednesday's FOMC minutes before making a major decision.

Without a substantial change in the FOMC minutes the stock market may selloff for the rest of the summer as traders who are long the market take profit.

A clear and sustained break out of the 2950-2985 trading range could cause a trending move in the direction of the breakout as stoploss gets hit.

Next Resistance is 3000, 3020

Next Support is 2935, 2910

Trade Guideline For Monday (September Contract)

On Friday NQ opened at Thursday's close and rallied to re-test Thursday's high before reversing back down and trend down all day. 

Key level on Monday morning is 2940

-- Downtrend should continue below 2940, with support at 2925, 2900 - 2905.

-- Above 2940 implies Friday's downtrend may have ended, but it has to clearly break above 2947.50 to trigger  short-covering rally, with resistance coming in at 2965, then 2980, 3000

Trade Guideline For Friday

On Thursday NQ opened and promptly reversed back up above 2930 key level, triggered short-covering rally that lasted all day, closing near the day high.

Key Level for Friday is 2950. 
-- Without a clear and sustained break below 2950, the uptrend that started on Thursday is still intact. A continual push higher should continue to trigger more short-covering rally, with resistance at 2970 then 2985.  A clear break above 2985 should trigger a massive short-covering rally or spike.
-- Below 2950 implies the trend has ended and that it is either going into a pullback consolidation mode down or a reversal back down. Supports are 2930 and 2910.

Bradley Model Turning Forecast for 2013