NQ Guideline For Monday

A gap-down and trend down day for NQ on Thursday. Looking at NQ pattern on the 60-minute chart, from Tuesday December 29th day high to Thursday swing low, it was a clear 5-wave decline.

 

Although it has not gone into oversold condition on the 60-minute chart, if wave 5 down has ended NQ should rally on Monday.

 

Key support for NQ on Monday will be 4580.

-- Trading above 4580 is an indication NQ is either in a rally mode or a sideways consolidation mode. NQ would need to clearly break above4630 to trigger short-covering rally. If so, the next resistance is 4660.

-- Trading below 4580 is likely to trigger a another round of algo sell programs. If so the next potential support is at 4500.

NQ Guideline for Thuirsday

With Thursday as the last trading day of the year, there will be the last minute squaring of the books by traders and investors so anything is possible.

 

Support for NQ on Thursday will be 4630 then 4600.

Resistance is 4680 then 4700.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

The usual overnight buy programs designed to cause a gap-up open in order to trigger short-covering rally did just that on Tuesday. NQ opened with a gap-up above key resistance that ignited short-covering rally that lasted all day long.

 

Unless some unexpected negative market moving news hit the market on Wednesday the uptrend should continue, with a morning pullback or without a morning pullback.

 

With most traders out of the office until the beginning of the new year market manipulators should not have much problem pushing the market higher.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

With the end of the year and into January seasonal bias to the bullish side, Monday morning selloff in the market was reversed, NQ rallied the rest of the day and then close at the day high which was above the early morning high and right at FT Pivot resistance, and above key inflection price level of 4600 for Tuesday.

 

As long as NQ can stay above 4600 it should remain bullish but it has to clearly break above 4630 to ignite another round of short-covering, failure to break clearly above 4630 could attract short sellers that could send NQ back down to 4575 support. However, NQ needs to break below 4575 to trigger another round of selling.

 

Key resistance for NQ on Tuesday is 4630.

-- Failure to break clearly above 4630 could send NQ back down to 4575 support.

-- Breaking above and staying above 4630 is an indication the current upswing on the daily chart is still in progress. If so, short-covering can easily push NQ back up towards resistances 4680 and then 4700.

NQ Guideline for Thursday

With most traders already out of the office for the Christmas and New year holidays the market traded sideways on Monday in a narrow trading range.

Unless some unexpected market-moving events or news hit the market on Thursday look for the narrow range sideways trading action to continue until the new year.

Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4600 - now acting as support.

-- Tradign above 4600 on Thursday implies neutral to bullish market bias.

-- Trading below 4600 could trigger some sell programs that can push price down to the next support at 4575.

NQ Guideline for Wednesday

Another up day for NQ on Tuesday, the second up day in a row. If the downtrend is still in progress NQ should trend down on Wednesday, with or without first going up.

Key price level to watch for will be Tuesday swing low.

-- Staying above Tuesday swing low would be bullish but key resistance remains at 4590-4600. 

-- A clear break below Tuesday low is likely to trigger renew selling and resumption of a downtrend.

The price of crude oil should remain key to trend direction.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday the market consolidated its two large down-days, traded sideways all day with a close near at the day high.

If the market is not in free-fall we should get another up-day on Tuesday before resuming its downtrend on Wednesday. Failure to get a rally day on Tuesday is an indication the market is going to tank hard.

Key price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4550.

-- Trading above 4550 is bullish for Tuesday. If so, the next upside target is the resistance zone around 4590-4600.

-- Trading below 4550 is bearish, but NQ would need to clearly break below 4400 to trigger another round of liquidation decline.

TED Spread (bank counter-party risk) surges to 4-year high

NQ Guideline For Monday

For NQ, Friday was the second large down-days, with the low of the day not too far above its crucial 200 day moving average, a critical price zone for many funds and algos. A clear and sustained break is likely to trigger longer-term algo sell programs that based their trigger level on the daily chart.

A break is likely to cause a large trending down day for NQ. With both the S&P 500 and the Dow broken below their respective 200-dma, the chances NQ should break its 200-dma is very high. If so, supports  are 4300 then 4200.  

On the smaller time-frame, key price level for NQ on Monday will be 4500 support and 4550 resistance. A clear and sustained break above resistance or below support could trigger a fast move.

-- Trading above 4550 could trigger fast short-covering rally to the next resistance zone 4590-4600

-- trading below 4500 could trigger more also sell programs, likely downside target is below December 14 swing low.

NQ Guideline For Friday

Massive buy programs going into the FOMC decision and after the FOMC decision was announced failed to trigger multi-days rally as the market was sold off on Thursday.Unless massive buy programs hit the market on Friday the sell-off should continue on Friday.

For NQ key price level to watch for will be 4570 and the price of crude oil.
-- A clear break below 4570, along with a selloff in crude oil, is likely to trigger massive sell programs that should tank NQ down to 4500.
-- Staying above 4570 should keep sellers in check, if crude oil rally look for NQ to rally as well.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

To be expected on Wednesday, a rate increase by the Fed that was followed by massive buy programs by the fed to make sure that their decision seems bullish for the market. 

The Fed buy programs should continue for a while longer to ensure that majority is convinced the raising interest rate is a good thing. Whether or not their trick will succeed only time will tell, but credit contraction is intensifying and should continue to intensify going forward and may overwhelm the Fed.

With that in mind key price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4630.

-- If the uptrend is still alive then any pullback should not clearly below 4630. If so, the uptrend should continue.

-- A break below 4630 is bearish and implies Wednesday rally is short-lived. First support is 4600, then 4580.