Sunday, July 27, 2014

Guideline For Monday

NQ broke below 3960 support on Friday, after re-tstign broken support, it then trend down to the next support before rallying back up.

Price inflection level for Monday is 3955, with 3970 resistance and 3940 support.
-- Bearish below 3955 with support at 3940 then 3930
-- Bullish bias above 3955 with resistance at 3970 then 3990, and then 4000 which remains a key psychological resistance level.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Guideline For Friday

NQ opened with a gap-up on Thursday and then immediately pullback down before rallying back up to test the morning high. It traded sideways all day in a narrow trading range and into the close.

NQ traded down in after hours trading, just above 3960 support, and depending on where it opens in the morning, it is either another up day or a pullback down day.
-- On Friday, trading above 3960 implies NQ is likely to rally back up, target is still 4000-4025.
-- Breaking below 3960 is likely to trigger momentum algo that could quickly tank NQ down to 3940, and if that does not hold the next support is 3910-3915.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Guideline For Thursday

On Wednesday NQ opened with a gap-up and then after trending up for period of time, it then spent the rest of the day trading sideways in a narrow trading range. Wednesday's trading pattern was identical to Tuesday's pattern.

It is likely to continue with the next resistance at 4000 for NQ. It is a whole numebr resistance where some algo may be taking profit and reverse, which implies some sorts of a larger pullback down. My upside target remains at between 4025-4050 before we get large pullback, provided NQ can stay above key support which is 3920 for Thursday.

Support for Thursday is 3960.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday, NQ opened with a gap-up above prior swing high, but without many shorts left to cover, consolidated sideways above the high in a narrow trading range.

For Tuesday as long as it can stay above 3935-3940 NQ should continue to be bullish. The next target up is still 4000 for NQ.

Trading below 3935 could trigger algo sell programs that can quickly tank it down to 3910-3920.



Monday, July 21, 2014

Guideline For Tuesday

After opening with a gap-down and then quickly closed the gap, NQ pullback down to support on Monday morning before rallying back up to just below Friday swing high. It was a narrow-range sideways consolidation day.

Key inflection price level on NQ for Tuesday is 3923, support is at 3910 and resistance is 3940.
-- Above 3923 NQ is in a bullish mode with resistance at 3940. NQ needs to clearly break above 3940 to trigger a trending upday with the next larger degree target at 4000.
-- NQ is bearish below 3923 but price would need to break 3910 support to attract large momentun ago sell programs

Guideline For Monday

Nasdaq NQ opened with a gap-up, and after a period of choppy pullback it rallied to near prior high on July 16th.

NQ had a clear 5-wave rally from the end of day low on Thursday July 17th, so the rally may need to go into a larger pullback before rallying back up. Whether or not NQ would have to make a higher high above prior July 16th high before pulling back down only time will tell.

Key inflection price level for Monday is 3925.
-- Trading above 3925 is an indication NQ is going to make a higherh-high first before going into a larger pullback down.
-- Trading below 3925 implies a larger pullback is in progress, with key support at 3910-3915. If support hold, look for NQ to rally back up again. 
-- If 3910-3915 support does not reverse price back up, look for NQ to trigger momentum algo sell programs that can tank NQ quickly down to 3880 support, then to below Thursday swing low if 3880 does not hold..

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Guidelien For Friday

On Thursday NQ opened with a gap-down below 3915 key inflection price zone. The gap-down opening triggered a combination of arbitrage buy programs and also algo buy programs, pushing price up to close the gap and a test of FT pivot (resistance) from below.

When NQ failed to rally above a convergence of resistance including gap-close, FT Pivot, 20-MA and 50-MA on the 5-minute chart, it attracted an overwhelming number of traders to sell aggressively, causing a cascade of momentum sell algos, tanking the market hard.

NQ finally fund  support around 3850-3860 support zone where the end of day profit-taking crowd cause a 20-point rally into the close.

The momentum going into the close was negative, setting up another large liquidation decline on Friday, unless NQ can get back above 3885 on Friday.

Below 3885 is an indication the decline is not over, the next support is 3800, strong support, but with the conflict in Ukraine continuing to intensify, support may not hold, so watch market internals for additional clues.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Guideline For Thursday

NQ opened with a gap-up above July 03 swing high but failed to trigger a short-covering rally. Instead NQ traded sideways above 3915 the whole day on Wednesday settign up a potential trending move up or down on Thursday, the direction will depends on where it trades in relation to key inflection price level at 3915.

If NQ re-break back below 3915 it could attract algos sell programs than has the potential to really tank the market hard, potential support are 3890 and 3850-3860. If the market internals get really berish, strong support lies at 3800.

Trading above 3915 implies more consolidation or a rally day, target is 2950-3960.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Guideline For Wednesday

NQ opened and sold off hard as soon as Janet Yellen started her testimony to the Senate banking committee. 

The Fed must have been caught unprepared with buy programs as NQ tanked hard, temporarily breaking below prior swing high support before the Fed buy programs were able to control the selloff and rallied the market back up.

NQ closed just below July 4th and 7th swing high, 3915-3918, which would serve as our key price zone for Wednesday.
-- NQ needs to breakback above 3915-3918 area to cause another round of short-covering / Fed buying rally.
-- Failure to clearly break above 3915-3918 would attract another round of algo selling that could drop NQ down to below Tuesday low and down to 3865 area support. 

Monday, July 14, 2014

Guideline For Tuesday

A gap-up and trend up morning for NQ on Monday, completing its 2nd upleg on the 60-minute chart, wave 3 or C up from July 10 swing low.

If Monday upleg is infact wave 3 up on the 60-minute chart, then wave 5 up should resume right away on Tuesday and should price stay above July 3rd swing high, around 3913 NQ.

Breaking back below July 3rd swing high on Tuesday is an indication NQ is going into a larger ABC pullback down mode. 

Breaking below Monday swing low could attract numerous momentum algo sell programs, targeting a fast liquidation drop down to the next support, a gap-close support created on Monday 3898, or down to prior swing high at 3890 now support.