Thursday, June 26, 2014
Guideline for Friday
NQ sold off hard soon after the open on Thursday, then rallied in a slow and choppy pattern the rest of the day, much like Wednesday.
At the end of the day on Thursday, NQ looks ready to pullback down again, so unless NQ can break above Tuesday high and stay above Tuesday swing high, it is going back down to 3800.
A break below 3800 could trigger some momentum algo sell programs targeting a break below Thursday swing low.
Since Friday tends to be a choppy sideways pattern looks for tomorrow to be a choppy sideways pattern.
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Guideline For Thursday
NQ initially struggled to break above 3800 early in the morning on Wednesday, but once it had broken above 3800 the shorts started to cover and NQ rallied almost all the way back up to Tueday swing high.
Key price level to watch for on Thursday is Tuesday's swing high.
-- Failure to break above Tuesday's high or a false break above Tuesday high could attract some selling but first support will be at 3800. Next support below 3800 is 3775. A clear break below 3775 could attract momentum algo sell programs.
-- Although I don't expect another large upmove above Tuesday's swing high, a sustained break above it could trigger some sort of short-covering rally.
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
Guideline For Wednesday
NQ finally brokeout above 3800 in the early morning on Tuesday and then rocketed up into new high and into overbought territory on the 60-min chart and the daily chart. Without any new buyer it sold off hard in the afternoon, dropping back down below3800 price level, with the close near the low of the day, a bearish close.
Key price level for Wednesday will be 3800.
--Failure to break-back above 3800 is an indication of weakness, potentially setting up a multiday decline. The first key level to break is 3775. A break below 3775 should attract momentum algo sell programs that could tank it hard, down to the next support, 3725-3730.
-- Breaking back above 3800 could setup a re-test of Tuesday's swing high..
Monday, June 23, 2014
Guideline For Tuesday
Another very narrow-range sideways pattern for NQ on Monday, still unable to break above 3800. The market is now in overbought condition on the daily chart, and running out of fresh new buyers, so it is vulnerable to a quick pullback down.
Key price level for NQ on Tuesday is again 3785.
-- As long as NQ stays above 3785 it may continue to trade in a choppy sideways pattern or up.
-- Trading below 3785 may attract some selling but it would have to clearly break below 3775 to attract some momentum algo sell programs designed to run over trailing stoploss for those holding long positions.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Guideline For Monday
Nasdaq NQ is clearly struggling to break above 3800 price level. With no more shorts to cover and no more new buyers to help push the market higher, as the only buyer left is just the Federal Reserve, the market usually gets sold off each time it makes a higher high.
Going forward, the pattern of breaking out to higher-high followed by a selloff may continue unless NQ can clearly break above 3800 and then stay above 3800.
Key support for Monday is 3785.
-- If NQ stays above 3785 in the morning we should see a higher-high above Friday's swing high before pulling back down.
-- Trading below 3785 may attract some algo sell programs but it would probably have to clearly break below 3775 to trigger serious algo sell programs. If so support that has the potential to bounce NQ back up is at 3550-3555 area. However, should 3750-55 breaks the next strong support is at 3730
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Guideline For Friday
NQ immediately pullback down soon after the open on Thursday, briefly breached 3780-85 support, down to 3775 support before rallying back up to close in the middle of the day range.
With gold surging over $50 per oz on Thursday, it is likely the equity market may have topped and may soon be ready to begin a bear market decline.
Key support for NQ on Friday is 3775.
-- Staying above 3775 is an indication NQ is likely to stay choppy.
-- A break below 3775 is likely to trigger a liquidation decline but Friday tends to be choppy so any selloff may attract Fed buyers that can push the market upwards.
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Guidelien For Thursday
The market rallied fast and furious after the FOMC announcement likely due to massive Fed buy program, pushing NQ clearly above key resistance 3785.
If more shorts needs to cover we should get another large follow-up rally on Thursday (tomorrow). However if all the shors had covered on Wednesday we would see a sideways or pullback-down day tomorrow Thursday.
Key support on NQ for Thursday is 3780-85.
-- As long as NQ remains above 3780-85 support it should rally or trade sideays. Next upside target is 3815-3820
-- Although highly unlikely, a clear break-back below 3780 could cause a massive sell-off.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
Guideline For Wednesday
Another choppy sideways pattern on Tuesday with NQ still trading inside a narrow trading range between 3755-3785 for the fourth day in a row. It may soon breakout of the range likely after the FOMC announcement on Wednesday afternoon, or on Thursday.
-- If the break is to the upside the next upside target is 3810-20.
-- If the break is to the downside the next support is 3830-35
Monday, June 16, 2014
Guideline For Tuesday
With FOMC decision anouncement not until Wednesday afternoon the market may continue to be choppy, and stuck inside a trading range, which for NQ is between 3750 lower range support and 3785 upper range resistance.
Although not expected, a clear and sustained break out of the 3750 - 3785 range implies NQ is moving to another trading range, 3785 - 3805 higher range zone and 3750 - 3730 lower range zone.
Although not expected, a clear and sustained break out of the 3750 - 3785 range implies NQ is moving to another trading range, 3785 - 3805 higher range zone and 3750 - 3730 lower range zone.
Sunday, June 15, 2014
Guideline For Monday
A choppy sideways trading pattern for NQ on Friday, traded just below prior trading range low 3780-3785 area, prior support now resistance.
3780-3785 area will be key price zone to watch for on Monday, for clues as to the direction of the next move.
-- A clear break above 3785 could trigger a fast sgort-covering rally to 3800 area.
-- If NQ cannot break above 3785, sellers could come back in to sell the market, target down is a break belowJune 12 swing low. Strong support is still at 3740 area.
The next FOMC meeting is this week
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