Guideline For Friday

On Thursday NQ opened near Wedensday's close but then quickly tanked down to support. Major buy programs quickly rallied it back to resistance before dropping back down to re-test 3540 support established early in the morning, a very choppy down-day on Thursday..

NQ closed right in the middle of the trading range established on Thursday, and looks ready to bounce all the way back to resistance 3580 resistance.

Unless NQ crash below Thursday low, I will be looking for a sideways consolidation day or a rally day, first target up is 3580 resistance. Without a clear break above 3580 look for NQ to drop back down to support which is 3540.

A clear break above 3580 could take NQ back up to 3595 or 3610. A clear break below Thursday low could tank NQ to lower supports, 3530, 3510, 3500.

The pattern for ES is similar to NQ, with support at 1832 and resistance at 1850

Guideline For Thursday

Both NQ and ES opened with a large gap-up, but were unable to break through resistance, NQ then driopped down to support, Pivot, 50-MA  and gap-close. ES eventually broke below Pivot support in the afternoon, and after a brief pullback, resumed the decline down to Monday's swing low.

After a small bounce, resumed the decline breaking below support, after re-testing broken support from below resume the declien in the afternoo broken below Monday swing low at the close, setting up for a potential liquidation day on Thursday.

Both the ES and NQ is setup for another liquidation drop on Thursday with or without a pullback. Next downside support for NQ is 3530, for ES the next support is 1825.

NQ has to clearly break above 3595 resistance to negate the above analysis and trigger another sideways ABC consolidation. Next upside resistance is 3620

For ES it needs to clearly break-back above 1580 to trigger another sideways consolidation day. Next upside resistance is 1856

As the US escalates the conflict with Russia in Ukraine, it is forcing Russia and many other countries to abandon the US dollar.

 

Guideine For Wednesday

NQ and ES rallied up to resistance then dropped down to support before bouncing back up to the middle of the trading range just slightly above key price inflection level for Wednesday, 3620 for NQ and 1856 for ES.

-- Bullish above 3620 for NQ with 1:1 upside targets up are 3650 for smaller wave and 3670 for larger wave,resistance are 3650, 3660 and 3680.

-- For ES bullish above 1856, 1:1 upside target are 1868 for smaller wave and 1872 for larger wave, resistances are 1866 and 1874.

-- Bearish below 3620 for NQ, next support is at 3695 and 3675.

-- For ES, supports below 1856 are 1847 and 1842

Guideline For Tuesday

A very large down day for the market on Monday particularly for NQ as it dropped down to support in the morning, but then rallied back up to resistance, closing right in the middle of the day range.

Unless NQ can break and stay below Monday's swing low, Tuesday could be a choppy sideways or a rally day. A clear break below Monday's swing low could attract more momentum sell algos, causing another large down day.

Key price level for NQ on Tuesday is 3620 resistance, and for ES it will be 1856 resistance.

-- If NQ cannot clearly break above 3620 it could attract selling, first support is 3595, then if that breaks, next support is Monday's low. A break above 3620 should continue to ingite short-covering rally with strong resistance at 3650 and 3660

-- For ES, failure to clearly break above 1856 will attract selling, support is at 1847, then Mondayls swing low. A break abobe 1856 could trigger more short-covering rally.

Guideline For Monday

A very bearish day on Friday with the close near the day low. The pattern was a clear 1-2-3 wave down from the high to the day low, on the 5-minute chart, for both ES and NQ, a clearer and cleaner 1-2-3 down for NQ.

-- If the 2nd downleg has ended, we should then get a 1-2-3 rally in the morning on Monday. If so, the first resistance is at 3660. A clear break above 3660 implies a move up to the next resistance at 3680

--ES resistance is 1866

-- If, however, the 2nd downleg is still in progress, then the market should continue to drop to lower price level in the morning on Monday, next support are 3620 and 3600. 

--For ES key support is 1856. A break could take ES down to the next support level, 1846

Whether or not we should get a rally up will entirely depend on how bearish the market gets. 

-- Not expecting a big rally if internals gets too bearish, and 

-- Looking for a rally if market internals are not in extreme bear camp.

Crisis in Ukraine should continue to influence the market on Monday

Guideline For Friday

Both NQ and ES broke above first resistance price level on Thursday, and, after a successful test- proceeded to rally up to the next resistance, and then closed near the upper trading range, 3680 - 3700 for NQ and  1856 - 1866 for ES.

For Friday NQ trading range will be 3680 - 2700, and 1856 - 1866 for ES. A clear and sustained break out of the range implies a movement to the next resistance or support.

-- For NQ, the upper range is 3700, a clear break above 3700 resistance target a move up to 3720. For ES, the upper range resistance is 1866, a clear break target 1875.

-- A break below lower range support target the next lower support, 3650 for NQ and 1846 for ES.

Guideline For Thursday

The market traded sideways until the released of the FOMC minutes at 2 pm in the afternoon. When the Fed tapered by another $10 billion per month as planned the market tank hard but managed to bounced on profit-taking into the close.

With major stock indices all broken below their respective Tuesday's swing low the trend down may be resuming. If so, we should see a down-day on Thursday. A clear and sustained break below Wednesday's swing low should take the market down to the next support zone.

The market would need to break-back above Tuesday's swing high to negate the resumption of the downtrend.

Key price level to watch for on Thursday is 3680 for NQ and 1856 for ES.

-- Bearish bias below key price NQ and ES, targeting a break below Wednesday's swing low. NQ supports are 3650 then 3620. ES supports are1846 and 1832.

With the Fed trying desperately to prevent dollar meltdown, gold and other major currencies got whacked and the US$ got the lift.

 

 

Guideline For Wednesday

The Fed decision on policy will be released in the afternoon on Wednesday, and it is widely expected that they will announced another $10 billion reduction in asset purchases on a monthly basis, and anything less that that would be considered bullish by the market, and the market can explode to the upside, particularly with the Fed buy programs running in overdrive.

The only thing that can change the bullish bias for Wednesday is the Ukraine situation. Should the US impose real sanction against Russia, the selling could overwhelm the Fed buyers, and the market tank.

Support on Wednesday is 3680 for NQ and 1856 for ES

-- Bullish above, with NQ resistance at 3700, 3720, a clear and sustained break above 3720 could trigger short-covering rally, targeting a break above March 06 swing high. For ES, next resistance is 1885.

-- Bearish below 1680 for NQ with supports at 3680, then 3650, for ES support is at 1856.

Guideline For Tuesday

United States has now officially imposed economic sanction against Russia as their next move. Russia is now taken out of the international money transfers system, the S.W.I.F.T..

Russia is sure to retaliate with their own sanction against the US and its allies in the west, their first target is to require payments for their oil and gas export in non-US$ currency, effectively taking the US$ out of the international reserve status, and certain to accelerate the demise/collapse of the US$.

Russia and Russian-based companies may stop making payments on their debt to the western banks, triggering the implosion of derivative contracts that is certain to cause a cascade of bank collapse in the US, Europe and globally.

United States and its allies will then retaliate with their own additional sanction which also make the already bad situation worse. We may be witnessing the beginning of financial Armageddon not only for the west by also for the whole global financial system.

Financial war could become military war very quickly and that it can easily turned nuclear - a no-win scenario.

In the short run, for Tuesday, key price level to watch for in NQ is 3650,  and 1846 for ES.

Monday was the first of normally 2 to 3 pullback-up days in the current downtrend, if so, price should not break below Monday swing low, so a break below Monday's low is very bearish indeed, an indication that the current downtrend is very powerful, implies that pullback has ended and the resumption of the current downtrend on the daily chart.

-- Bullish above 3650 for NQ the next NQ resistance is 3680. For ES resistances are 1856 and 1864. As long a Monday's swing low is not violated the momentum is upwards.

-- Very bearish indication if Monday's swing low is violated, next target is a test of Friday's low. A clear and sustained break below Friday low is certain to trigger a massive momentum SELL algo that can tanked the market down very hard and quickly. NQ supports are 3600 and 3580, for ES they are 1822 and 1805

Guideline For Monday

A narrow-range sideways action on Friday following a very large down-day on Thursday. This should be followed by a large down-day on Monday or a pullback-up day on Monday, depending on where it trades in relation to its key support zone..

Crimean had voted overwhelmingly in favour of leaving Ukraine and joining Russia, and this should bent Obama's nose out of shape, causing him to react in a very emotional way and it cannot be good.

  

If Obama carries out his threat of economic sanction against Russia it would have a very negative impact on the market - resulting in a credit contraction that can bankrupt many major banks both in the US and Europe. 

Russia and China has started to dump US dollar bonds - and soon may be joint by other countries who do not wish to be holding the bag of worthless US$. How fast or how slow things unravel is anyone's guess.

Key level for Monday on NQ is 3620 support, for ES it will be 1832 support.

-- Above support may trigger some short-covering, NQ resistance is 3650, for ES is 1846-1849

-- Next support for NQ is 3600, for ES are 1830 and 1825. depending on the selling momentum, these supports could easily get broken.