Trade Guideline For Tuesday

Equity market continued to trade sideways on Friday ahead of the G20 meeting on the weekend in Moscow. Now that the meeting is behind us, we shall see if the market can move out of its current trading range.

For NQ support is at 2760, resistance is at 2780.
-- Bullish above 2780
-- Bearish below 2760

As expected there was no consensus on what to do regarding currency wars. There is NO mention of Japan or Japanese policy of rapid yen devaluation, as it is the US Federal Reserve engineered policy in order to fund the ever-growing US budget deficit. For now funds can aggressively short the yen (borrow yen) and long the US dollar (by buying US treasury), and not worry about the downside risk, at least not worry for a while if the the Fed has its way. 

But as with any market manipulation, it can only go on for so long, sooner or later the trade will be reversed, and reversal can decimate (collapse) the USD in a hurry. But for now, long dollar and short yen is a sure winning trade.

As you can see below, the USD has rallied more than 15% against the Yen over the last three month.

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — The Group of 20 has spoken, and it has effectively proclaimed that it’s more afraid of stalling economic growth than overheated rhetoric about the threat of a so-called currency war.

In the statement issued Saturday, G-20 finance ministers and central bankers effectively told Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to go ahead and pursue policies that will result in a weaker currency — provided that he doesn’t actually talk about the level of the yen

Trade Guideline For friday

Nasdaq continues to trade sideways remaining inside a narrow trading range (2760 support and 2780 resistance) ahead of this weekend G20 meeting in Moscow. It should remains inside the range until investors can get more clarity as to the direction of the state of the current currency wars situation. 

Investors are watching for any comments from the Group of 20 leading nations on Japan’s recent aggressive monetary easing amid growing tension over currency rates. Currencies are expected to be discussed at the G20 meeting, after Russia’s finance minister said G20 nations should take a stronger stance against currency manipulation.

Trade Guideline For Thursday

Another sideways consolidation day on Wednesday, the fourth consecutive days. It may be waiting for the G20 meeting this weekend before the market makes a sustained breakout/breakdown move. Until then, it may be more of the same for Thursday.

NQ Resistance For Thursday is 2780

NQ Support For Thursday is 2760.

Currency wars discussions to dominate G20 meeting this weekend.

Trade Guideline For Wednesday

Tuesday was the third consecutive day of narrow-range sideways consolidation days. It should continue to do so until it gets a catalyst to trigger a breakout/breakdown move.

Support for Wednesday is 2755-2760

Resistance is 2775-2780

On a separate note, Japan's economic minister wants Nikkei Stock market to surge 17% 10 13,000 by March. It would requires a massive money-printing / counterfeiting by the BOJ to get to that target.

Trade Guideline For Tuesday

Nasdaq continue to trade sideways on Monday, staying inside a narrow trading range, between 2760-2765 support zone and 2780 resistance.

For Tuesday, more of the same, unless NQ can clearly breaks out of the current trading range.

Currency Wars dominates the G20 meeting

Trade Guideline for Friday

Another sideways consolidation day on Thursday, again closing near the open, essentially another "doji" day on the daily chart.

Key level For Friday is 2735. 
-- Above 2735 implies it is likely going back up to 2760-2765 resistance.
-- Below 2735 implies a likely re-test of support, strong support at 2715 area.

EURO Daily Chart

Trade Guideline For Thursday (NQ)

Nasdaq traded sideways on Wednesday, a "doji" day as seen on the daily chart, with closing price right at key level (2740) for Thursday.

-- Bullish above 2740, with first resistance at 2760-2765.

-- Bearish below 2740, with first support zone at  2720.

It would need a an extreme market internals to break out of the first support and resistance zone.

Currency wars is intensifying. Here below is the daily chart of the Japanese yen. Those who did not exited their long yen position in time is now toast.

The Eurozone countries is now preparing to push their Euro currency down. Their action should push the US$ upward and push the US stock market downward.

Trade Guideline For Wednesday

Market volatility has started to rise, indicating that the market is topping. On Tuesday NQ rallied back up to strong resistance, and again stalled at resistance. 

It will need a sustained break above 2760-2765 to trigger a short-covering rally, and failure to do so implies another day of sideways consolidation or a trending down decline to Tuesday's low.

Resistance is 2760-2765,

Supports are 2740, 2720, 2700-2705.

Argentina Freezes Prices to Break Inflation Spiral

Argentina announced a two-month price freeze on supermarket products Monday in an effort to stop spiraling inflation.

The price freeze applies to every product in all of the nation's largest supermarkets — a group including Walmart, Carrefour, Coto, Jumbo, Disco and other large chains. The companies' trade group, representing 70 percent of the Argentine supermarket sector, reached the accord with Commerce Secretary Guillermo Moreno, the government's news agency Telam reported.

Trade Guideline For Tuesday

Equity mutual funds recorded the second-highest inflows on record in the first week of the year. ... About $22 billion flowed into equity funds around the world. Bloomberg, Jan. 11

Clearly a red flag, as most investors are bullish at market top and bearish at market bottom.

Well, investors were also bullish on Oct. 9, 2007, just before the Dow's all-time closing high. Just days earlier (the third week of September 2007), equity fund inflows hit an all-time record of $23 billion. Look at the chart.

On Monday, Nasdaq opened with a gap-down and trend down all day closing at the low of the day, clearly with a very bearish momentum at the close, further cementing a bearish Head & Shoulder pattern on the NQ daily chart. Monday sell-off could be the start of a new bear market, still at a very early stage, as one day sell-off does not make a trend.

For Tuesday, we could either see a consolidation pullback-up day or another liquidation decline day. 

-- Consolidation / pullback up target is 2730 - 2740.

-- Next downside target is 2700-2705 and 2690. On a strong sell-off, the next support is 2660

Although it may be too early to forecast, on a longer-term basis, the downside target of the Head & Shoulder pattern on the daily chart for NQ is 2150, a 600-point drop. 

-- Bear market downside target, once the sell-off commences, is down to 1900 at a minimum (assuming we don't get a panic crash).

Bearish (inverse) ETF, Nasdaq 100 = PSQ, Ultrashort Nasdaq 100  QID. 

For S&P 500, Bearish ETF is SH, and Ultrashort S&P500 = SDS 

Trade Guideline For Monday

NQ is bumping against strong resistance zone around 2760-2765. Unless it can mount a sustained break above 2765 it is going into a pullback mode down on Monday, either in a sideways consolidation or a trending down move, with supports at 2745, 2735, 2725.

Falling yen set to spark renewed currency wars. History shows currency disputes can escalate from rhetorical spats into disastrously counter-productive economic conflict.

“Currency wars” have hit the headlines anew in recent weeks, given Japan’s attempts to force down the yen. Freshly installed prime minister, Shinzo Abe, determined to stimulate a moribund economy, has ordered Japan’s ultra-conservative central bank to be more expansionary.