Next week is going to be a low volume market actions as most market participants are out of the office for the year end olidays.
As such we can expect a very low volume market action, anything is possible, a slow choppy actions or a big swing actions.
While the equity market rally has stalled due to low investors participation with Christmas Holidays and the Year End holidays coming up, the precious metals market, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium continues to rocket up
Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium weekly chart
Santa Clause rally started on Thursday last week, and should continue on Monday, with the next key resistance to break at 25.800-25.900.
A break of that resistance is going to trigger a lot of forced short-covering. If so, the next higher resistance is at 226,400.
A gap-up open for NQ on Thursday but then it traded sideways the rest of the day
Intraday support is 25,200 and intraday resistance is at 25,350
The daily chart is bullish, and if it can trade above 25,350 we could se a burnish day on Friday with the next major resistance at 25,800
A large down day for NQ on Wednesday. As such, we could see either a sideways consolidation or another large down day again.
Resistance is 25,300 and support is 24,000
Santa Clause rally is still illusive, as AI companies, NDIDIA and Oracle drag NQ down with it.
A sideways morning price action that was followed by late day rally from oversold bounce on Tuesday. Without major negative news in the morning the rally should continue overnight and into the morning session. If so the enxt resistance is at 25,400 on the December contract.
NQ would need to break back below 25,000 to turn bearish again.
Is Santa Clause Rally just starting?
A sideways consolidation day on Monday following a large down day on Friday..On Tuesday we could see three scenarios that could happen.
If NQ stays above key support 25,000, we could see another sideways choppy trading action, or an oversold rally,
A break below 25,000 price level could cause a cascade of selling, with the next support at 24,000. It is possible to get to 24,000 in one or two days.
Santa Clause Rally is still holding this market up, but against strong selling pressure, will it hold? We shall see.
A large down-day for NQ on Friday which started with a large selling in the morning followed by a sideways pattern in the afternoon, setting up for another large selling on Monday. unless NQ can break back above 25,350
The next strong support is at 25,000.
FOMC decision announcement on Wednesday. As such we could see the stock market goes either way, up or down or stay sideways, as it all depends on what the Fed says about what they are going to do.
What we know is that the Yen carry trade is dragging the market down against the Fed liquidity injection and the bullish Santa Clause rally bullish session.. We just have to wait see.
A sideways narrow range pattern for NQ on Monday. Tuesday is likely to be the same as investors wait for the FOMC official announcement on Wednesday.
A factor that can influence the pattern is the Japanese yen carry trade. Heavy unwinding could easily overwhelmed positive action by the Fed and cause unexpected heavy selling, a black swan event..
A normal Friday sideways trading action last Friday. The FOMC will announce their decision on monetary policy on Wednesday and it is expect to cut short term interest rates by 25 basis point.
The Fed is also expect to announce a new Treasury purchase programs, (new money printing program) which should be bullish for precious metals and also for the stock markets.
Key resistance zone for NQ on Monday wilt be at 25,800-25,900. Bullish above it.Support is 25,500.
After trading for three conswcutive days below double-top resistance, NQ looks ready to break above 25,900 and rocket higher.
However, sice Friday tends to be a choppy sideways day, it is also possible NQ would need to wait until next week to breakout aboev 25,900 resistance
25,500 is key intraday support for NQ on Friday
FOMC meeting next week
A choppy day on Tuesday. The rally shuld continue but in a choppy pattern because the stock market is in a very overbought zone.
December is a bullish month, with the Santa Clause rally condition. As such the short are stating to cover causing a slow rally.
Key intraday support for NQ on Wednesday will be at 25,400, bullish above, bearish below it
With most major market participants back on Monday we could start to see the market moving bidirectionally, again, up or down, depending on where it trades in relation to its key inflection price level, hich is at 25,200
Bullish above 25,200, with 25,500 as key breakout level to the upside and bearish below 25,200, with 25,000 as key support.
Silver price is in breakout mode.
Wednesday clse was at key resistance of 25,400, which will be key price level for Friday trading session.
Friday will be a short day so anything is possible. NQ could trade sideways below 25,400, or breakout above it a trend higher.
The next higher resistance is 25,800-25,900.
After dropping down to support soon after the open on Tuesday the market rallied the rest of the day. With Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday anything is possible.
However, Trump would love to see the stock market rallying back up for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Key inflection price leve for NQ on Wednesday will be at 25,000, bullish above, with the next resistance at 25,400-25,500
Bearish below it.
The 2-day bounce from 24,000 strong support zone, NQ has hot its first resistance at 25,000. As such a pullback sideways day is likely on Tuesday as traders took profit ahead of the Thanksgiving holidays.
First intraday support for NQ on Tuesday will be at 24,600-24,700 zone. It should hold. Hoever, should it breaks we could see a sharp drop lower.
If NQ shoui;d continue above 25,000, the enxt strong resistance is at 25,400-25,500.
A sideways trading pattern for NQ on Friday as short-sellers took profit ahead of the weekend. Monday could be interesting because many investors are out of the office for the US Thanksgiving holidays on Thursday.
With the markey in deep oversold at support and many market participants out of the office, we can eithe trade sideways for th week or break below support and sell-off.
Key support for NQ is 24,000, bearish below it and bullish above it.with first resistance at 24,700, then 25,000.
A huge sell-off for the financial market on Thursday as problems with liquidity started to surface. As such we can expect potential crash on Friday if things get out of hand.
For NQ, key support is 24,000. A clear break below will target 22,000-22,400 as the next major support. A drop of 2,000 would not be very surprising
If NQ can stay above 24,000 there is a chance of a snapback rally as profit-taking shorts covers before the weekend,. If so resistances are 25,000 and 25,400
A sideways price pattern for NQ on Wednesday as possibly the manipulator attempted to push the market up but failed.
Overnight on Thursday nigh the manipulator is using Nvdia earning report to push the market up. NQ is up over 400 points in globex trading. If they can cause short-covering we could see NQ staying up and trade sideways, strong resistance is at 25,400
If they cannot hold it up, we can see NQ dropping back down to key support level, 24,700
A sideways trading pattern for NQ on Tuesday. NQ is stair-stepping down. NQ is bearish on the daily chart with then next support at 24,000.
Key resistance is 25,000,.key support at 24,000
The market is relative flat overnight. Without some major market moving news on Wednesday, we could see NQ trading sideways inside Tuesday trading range.
NQ is in oversold zone both on the daily chart and on the weekly chart. As such, it could quickly snap-back up to 100K which is a strong resistance.
Bitcoin 90K is a strong support and 100K is a strong resistance.
Monday was a bearish day in the market. The selling has continued into the overnight trading , with NQ dropping over 200 points lower from Monday's close.
Bitcoin and precious metals are all bearish overnight, setting up for a big gap-ddown open and liquidation decline.
On the daily and weekly chart NQ looks bearish and looks ready to tank down to the enxt strong support level, 24,000.
There's a liquidity problem in the financial market, if the Fwd and the US Treasury does not come in with a big liquidity injection, we could see a big sell-off day.
If the Fed and the Treasury intervene in the market, we could see a fast snap-back rally like the one on Friday
Key price level to watch on Tuesday will be at 24,700, bearish below, next support is 24,000, bullish above, with the next strong resistance at 25,400
A huge 400+ points gap-down for NQ on Friday, which must have panicked the Trump administration who must have engineered a non-stop buy programs that noon and a 663 points rally from the low of the day.
The market then traded sideways spotting a bull flag pattern, setting up a potential massive wave C rally on Monday, If so, NQ would have to break above strong resistance at 25,4400 and rally all the way up to 25,900.
Failure to break clear anove 25,400 is going to cause a sideways choppy patter, with key support at 24,900.
Trading below 24,900 is very bearish
Perhaps the released of Epstein file involving President Trup might have spooked confidence in the market, as the market was bullish in the evening, but as the market approach the open the mood turned sour.
NQ opened just slightly above support, 25,350, but then quickly dropped below and then sold off hard.
Friday could be interesting, a break below support, Thursday low could tank NQ hard, next support is at 24,600-24,700 area.
If NQ can stay above 25,000 we could see NQ rally back up to broken support now resistance at 25,350, then likely trade sideways from there.
Another day of choppy sideways pattern for NQ on Wednesday, the third consecutive day as NQ remained stuck inside a choppy trading range between 25,350 support and 25,900 resistance.
As long as NQ remains inside the range between 25,350-25,900, we should continue to see choppy sideways pattern.
With the US government shutdown now over we should see bullish price action. A breakout above 25,900 is necessary to trigger short-covering rally.
NQ traded sideways on Monday and Tuesday as most traders and investors were out of the office for the Memorial Day holidays It may be ready to trend again as market participants are mostly back in the office. If so, the market should breakout of the current trading range a trend again
Key price level for NQ on Wednesday will be at 25,900, a bullish breakout above it with the next resistance at double top, 26,400.
Support is at 25,350-25,400. Thousg not expected, a sustained break below would be bearisn and could cause a massive liquidation decline. Support levels are 25,400 and 25,750
A very large sideways trading range for NQ on Friday, with a large sell-off in the morning that was followed by a large rally in the afternoon.
With the financial market closed for Vetreans Day on Tuesday we could expect a choppy sideways trading pattern on Monday with inflection price zone around 25,400.
Resistance is at 25,800 and support at 25,000.
A large sell-off for the stock market on Thursday with NQ dropping below strong support at 25,400 and closing below 25,400, a bearish close.
On Friday we could get a technical oversold bounce and if it can break back above 25,400 w could see NQ rallying back up to 25,570 or higher.
Trading below Thursday low is bearish with the next support at 25,000.
A snap-back rally, a bounce from strong support on Wednesday stopped at resistance, prior swing low, and sold off hard at the end of the day, setting up a bearish close.
Key resistance for NQ on Thursday will be at around 25,870 - 25,890, bearish below it and bullish above it.
Strong support is still at around 25,400.
With a long weekend coming up we could see NQ remaining inside the 25,400 - 25,890 trading range into next week.
A very bearish day for the financial market on Tuesday with bitcoin,precious metals and stock selling off vry hard. NQ traded diwn to near ket support, 25,400, 20-ma on the daily chart and prior swing high, a formidable support.
However, overnight NQ has traded as long as 25,300, a violation of support. If this weakness continues into the open we could see massive selling.
Key inflection price level for NQ on Wednesday will be at 25,400, bullish above it, and very bearish below it.
The stock market was trading flat on Monday but has sold off hard after hours. NQ has trade down to as low as 400 points from Monday close. If this weakness continues into the open we could see a large sell-off on Tuesday.
Strong support for NQ is at 254,400. If this support does not hold we could see a massive sell-off . If it can hold, we could see sharp rally from it.
We shall see where it trades in the morning on Tuesday, with iflection price zone at 26,100, bullish above, bearish below it.
Sharp sell-off in crypto with bitcoin selling off very hard
Friday price action was a normal Friday price pattern, a choppy sideways price action.
Monday could be interesting if NQ can trade out of the current range, either continue in the direction of the breakout or reverse after breaking out.
Key inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be at around 26,060, with key breakout resistance at 26,200, and key breakdown price level support at 25,850,
Thursday was a pullback-down day for the stock market. Overnight NQ has rallied over 300-points. As long as nothing major that can change the market sentiment in the morning we should see the market rallying on Friday.
For NQ key inflection price level is at 26,100, bullish above, next resistance is at 26,400, and bearish below 26,100.
NQ traded sideways on Wednesday awaiting the Fed decision on monetary policy and Trump meeting with China's President Xi on trade deal.
Now that's over the market could continue its uptrend.
Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be at 26,050 zone. As long as NQ remains above 26,050 the current uptrend is still strong.
Trading below it implies continual consolidation.
A bullish dai in the equity market as investors expect the FED to cut inetrest rate by 0.25 basis point on Wednesday
The on Thursday Trump and Xi is going to announce some sort of trade agreement, a positive news could catapult the stock market up and up.
As for Wednesday the FOMC policy decision announcement is going to dominate the market
A large gap-up opening for the US equity market on Monday with NQ opening over 300 points above Friday's close.
With the Fed expecting to cut inetrest rate by 0.25 basis point on Wednesday and a trade deal announcement between Trump (US) and Xi (China) on Thursday we could see massive short-covering rally this week, with normal upside target at 26,600, and higher if NQ overshoot to the upside.
Key support for NQ is now at 25,400, bullish above it, and bearish below it.
The equity market traded sideways on Friday . For NQ it opened above prior swing high and then traded and closed above the previous high, 25,355, now became ket support.
NQ has rallied almost 300 points in overnight trading. If the bullishness remains into the Monday open we should see the shorts getting forced to cover, which could lead to short-covering rally with the next upside target at 26,000.
A narrow range choppy upday for NQ on Thursday. The rally has continued into the overnight globex session which is likely to continue into the day on Friday.
Key price level to watch is previous swing high at around 25,395.
A break above is bullish as it is likely to trigger a short-covering activities especially if it can break and stay above it.
Below 25,395 we could see choppy sideways action. Support is at 25,000
NQ sold-off hard in the morning and into early afternoon on Wednesday. Late day profit-taking rally,pust NQ to close above 25,000, key intraday inflection price level, setting up a continual rally in the morning if NQ can stay above 25,000 dduring overnight trading session.
The general mood of the market was bearish on Wednesday with Crypto and precious metals trading down with the stock market.
We shall see what happens on Thursday, 25,000 remains key intraday inflection price level, bullish above it, bearish below it.
A very narrow range day for NQ on Tuesday, stuck between resistance 25,390 and support 24,000.. As long as NQ remains below 25,390 we could see more narrow range day or a sharp drop back down to 24,000 support.
Key intraday inflection price level remains at 25,275, bullish above, bearish below.
What was more exciting on Tuesday wa the takedown of gold and silver, vulnerable to sharp selloff because it was way overbought.
How long and how large the current pullback will be is difficult to say.
Gold 20-ma support on the daily chart is at around 4,000, which provided support on Tuesday overnight globex trading session.
4,000 is now key support for gold.
NQ opened with a gap-up above 25,000 key resistance on Monday. As such it triggered a short-covering rally that too NQ back up to its resent high,25,390.
The market looks bearish in overnight trading, with Bitcoin and other cryptos sellign off hard.. If the weakness continues into the open we could see sharp sell-off in the equity market.
Key price level for NQ is 25,275, bullish above and bearisg below it, with for support at 25,000.
After five days of choppy consolidation NQ looks ready to trend back up again. To do so NQ must break and stay above 25,000 in order to force the shorts to cover and to attract buyers.
Failure to stay above 25,000 is likely to trigger another round of selling with 24,000 as key support.
NQ failed to stay above 25,000 after trading above it soon after the open on Thursday which is bearish setting up for a bearish Friday.
Overnight on Thursday night NQ has sold off hard. Without any major market-moving news in the morning on Friday NQ is set to sell-off. If so the enxt support is at 24,000.
24,000 support may not hold. A break could cascade NQ down to the next support level, 22,300. NQ may not get there on Friday but it is possible.
When everything has sold-off on Thursday night, only gold is bullish.
NQ rallied all day after re-testing the low from Friday sell-off. The rally stopped below key resistance at 25,000.
On Wednesday we could see re-testing of 25,000 resistance. And if it starts to trade above it, short-sellers will have to start to cover, thus triggering a short-covering rally.
Failure to re-break back above 25,000 is bearish, an indication its trying to re-test support. A break of support is likely to trigger a huge decline as the next strong support is at 22,000, that is a 2,000 point drop to support.
Monday was a technical bounce from key support back up to resistance zone, round 25,000.
For Tuesday 25,000 will be key price level, a break above could trigger short-covering rally, but failure to break is an indication NQ is going back down to retest support at around 24,000.
Key resistance is 25,000 and key support is 24,000, with first minor support at 24,700
The stock market crashed on Friday after Trump threatened China with a 100% tariff . It seems over the weekend Trump has capitulated and was forced to say nice things about China in order to avoind Black Monday tomorrow.
For NQ, Friday low as not far above prior swing high now key support, 24,000.. NQ would need to break back above its all-time swing high inorder to negate the current tchnical damage cause by Fridays selloff
Key resistance for NQ on Monday will be at 25,000, bullish above, bearish below it.
With so may traders and investors out of the market, those knocked out of their positions, we could see wild swing on Monday.
The US government will shut down at midnight , October 01 as the Democrat and the Republican disagree of budget, so there is no money to fund government activities.
Normally this type of issues does not affect the financial market by much. However, with the stock market in extreme overbought territory we could see the market selling off as a result.
The equity market has started to sell-off in overnight globex trading session. Without an agreement we could see selling to continue into the open on Wednesday.
For NQ, key price level to watch is 24,800, bullish above and ebarish below it.
Following three consecutive pullback down days, NQ had a positive close on Friday. Overnight NQ has rallied over 100 points which would trigger a bullish-bias day on Monday..
If the rally can continue into the open we it is an indication that the pullback has ended and the uptrend is resuming.
To do so NQ would need to stay above 25,700. Failure to stay above 24,700 is bearish.
Now that the September Fed decision is out of the way the market can continue to rally. However, with the market in extreme overbought condition on the daily time-frame there is always a possibility the market can experience sharp 1 to 3 days pullback before resuming the uptrend.
Until the market violate strong support the uptrend should continue as the financial financial market is well liquefied.
As expected the Fed cut short term interest rate by 25 basis point. Initially the market sold off but then the Fed dovish stance sent stock abck up again.
The stage is now set for the market to continue to rally with increasing momentum as the shorts are forced to cover.
For NQ key support on the daily chart is now at 24,000. The rally should continue above that, with the enxt upside target at 26,000
FOMC decision day on Wednesday.
What the Fed decides and their messages could affect the financial market in a major way if their message is not in line with expectation.
It is very likely the Fed may not want to rock the boat and play safe. A 25 basis point cut and a neutral statement. if so, the stock market is going to continue to rally.
A surprise could cause a sharp selling and a pullback in the stock market.
The FOMC will start their meeting on Tuesday and announce their decision on Wednesday. The market has priced in a 25 basis point cut, bullish for the stock market.
If the Fed should announce a 50 basis point cut instead of 25 basis point, the stock market is likely to explode higher.
The Fed is also expected to cut 2 more times before the end fof 2025 after the September meeting. The stage is now set for a parabolic rise in the stock market as short-sellers cover their short and reverse long for the year end rally,
The stock market continues to rally and it should continue especially with the Fed expected to cut Fed fund rate by at least 25 basis point if not more.
Looks like the stock market is now going into its fast uptrend, into a blow-off top before it collapses because of economic slowdown.
With President Trump's plan to replace hawkish Fed governors with dovish governors by February 2026, we could see market participants front-running those moves, and rally into blow-off top phase as short-sellers turn bullish and FOMO sentiments takes effect.
The Fed Chairman to be replaed by may 2025
A small rally for NQ on Thursday.
Ahead of the long Labour Day weekend, when the market will be closed on Monday, we could expect the market to chop sideways, unless of course the market get an unexpected market moving news.
NQ continued to trade sideways on Wednesday. It is still consolidating inside a bullish-bias zone. Thursday may be the day it breaks out and rally, we shall see.
Key level for NQ to trigger the next trend up is at 23,650 and then pushes higher. A better setup would be for NQ to oen with a big gap-up that would force the shorts to cover.
Key support is 23,450
A big rally for the stock market on Friday as the Fed Powell was very dovish, ready to aggressively cut short term rate in September, perhaps by 50 basis point.
If the rally can continue on Monday/next week, we could see capitulation by the shorts. If so we can get a parabolic rally that could last for several weeks.
For NQ, key price inflection level is at 23,500, bullish above it but less bullish below it.
A sideways price action for NQ on Thursday ahead of the Fed Jackson Hole meeting. The market may continue to trade sideways until next week when the Fed policy may be more clear after the Jackson Hole meeting.
A sharp sell-off for NQ om Wednesday morning down to key support, then found enough dip buyers at support, and rally into the close.
The Fed will have their annual meeting in Jackson Hole on the weekend. There will be some major announcement, including hinting on a large rate cut in September.
The stock market is in very overbought condition on the daily and weekly time-frame, and that could set-up a large pullback into the year end.
Key resistance will be at 23,400, bullish above, bearish below it.
A sideways price action for NQ on Thursday At the end of the day it looks like NQ is going down and may open with a gap-down and then run down to support before bouncing back up again, that is as long as it does not violate support.
Key support for NQ on Friday will be at 23,750 - 23,800, bullish above, bearish below it.
NQ continued to make higher high as liquidity remains in abundance frustrating the bears. The rally should continue with or without a major pullback
On the larger daily and wekly timeframe, key support is now at 23,450, bullish above it ans it continues to squeeze the short.
On the intraday basis, for Thursday, key support is at 23,750 - 23,800.
The recent 2-day pullback down to re-test breakout level was a 400 points missed, an indication that the pullback was very bullish.
The failure to come down all the way to retest the previous swing high of 22,400 is an indication many waiting to buy would missed the boat and those waiting to exit their wrong short trade were not able to get out of their trade.
As such the rally that followed was sharp and could last for a while as investors who missed the entry has to chase the trade higher and those holding short position continue to get squeezed.
The next upside target is 24,500 - 25,000
