Friday was a narrow range choppy up day. With the equity market in deep overbought on all timeframes, without a large pullback the slow melt-up should continue.
Key support going forward is 18,600, bullish above it
A huge gap-up open for NQ on Thursday due to NVDIA earnings reports.
However, it was sold immediately because of several factors. One was that the Fed is planning to raise the Fed fund rate, not cutting it. The second reason is that the market was way overbought on all time frames. As such vulnerable to sharp drop as we can see on Thursday.
On Friday, ahead of the long weekend in the USA we could see NQ trading sideways. Key balance price zone is at 18,800. NQ may bounce back to it then bounce away from it.
Resistance is at 19,000 and support is at 18,550.
NQ traded sideways on Wednesday with a small selling after the released of hawkish Fed minutes from the last meeting, indicating a likely rate hike instead of a rate cut.
However, irrational exuberance after NVDIA earning report has pushed NQ almost 200-point higher in overnight globex trading, which may or may not continue after the open on Thursday.
If the shorts decides to cover and reverse long on Thursday that would imply a trending-UP day, we could see NQ rallying at least to 19,000 price level. The upside target before a large pullback is still at 19,400-19,500. Whether or not NQ will get there on Thursday is hard to say.
With the rest of the market not participating in the overnight rally, wwith Bitcoin and Gold both down overnight, we could see a gap-up reversal.
Key price level to watch after the open will be the opening price, bullish above it, bearish below it.
A very choppy narrow range trading pattern for NQ on Tuesday. Without any major pullback down move, the choppy narrow range pattern should continue.
Key intraday support for NQ on Wednesday will be at 18,930.
A narrow-range trading pattern for NQ on Monday. With NQ overbought and at doub-top on the daily chart, and the short-term pattern not showing any setup for a big move we could see another sideways choppy pattern for NQ on Tuesday.
One key exception is if the shorts get forced to cover above 18,700. If so we could see a strong trending move up. The probability of this happening is about 20%. The higher probability is for NQ to pull-back down (trade lower) before breaking out to the upside.
Key level to watch for breakout is 18,700. Trading below that is bearish.
Bitcoin and gold are both very bullish.
A sideways price action for NQ on Friday. With Friday being the second pullback day we could see NQ try to rally on Monday, the third day after a trend day is usually a continuation day.
The pattern on the daily chart is good for seting up a trend day on Monday, but on the shorter timeframe, the 60-minute chart, it is saying NQ should pull-back down further.
The key price level to watch for on Monday is 18,700.
Trading above 18,7010 is likely to trigger another round of buying programs. However, failure to do so implies more consolidation.
Key support isa 18,600. A sustained break below 18,600 could trigger heavy selling.with lower support levels at 18,400 and then 18,100
So far this evening, Sunday night, the market is indicating a neutral market and sideways pattern for Monday. The situation could easily change by the time the market opens on Monday.
A choppy sideways consolidation trading pattern for NQ on Thursday, typical pattern following a trending day.
On Friday NQ should continue to trade sideways, with key support at 18,600 and key resistance at 18,700
Lower than expected CPI number on Wednesday confirmed thaty rate cut is coming sooner than expected that triggered buy programs forcing shorts to cover resulting in a nice large trending up day on Wednesday.
With NQ high of the day at double-top, a sustained break on Thursday could trigger another wave of buy programs and short-covering that could push NQ to another new higher high.
Key intraday level for NQ on Thursday is at 18,700, bullish above, bearish below it indicating sideways consolidation pattern.
A small up-trending market for NQ on Tuesday ahead of the CPI release on Wednesday. The number could get the market going again, up or down.
Key price level for NQ on Wednesday will be at 18,400, bullish above, bearish below it with key support at 18,260
CPI report release date and time: Wednesday, May 15 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. The CPI is forecast to rise 0.4% in April after increasing by 0.4% in March. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% in April after rising 0.4% in March. The CPI year over year is forecast to rise to 3.4% in April from 3.5% in March.
NQ continue to trade sideways in a very narrow range as the market await inflation number on Wednesday. As such, NQ could continue to chop around until Wednesday.
Key support on Tuesday is at 18,260.
Another day of very choppy narrow range trading day for NQ on Friday. NQ looks ready to drop down unless it can stay above key support 18,100.
Current trading range is between 18,100 support and 18,260 resistance.
On the intraday basis, inflection price level for NQ on Monday is at 18,250, bullish above, bearish below it.
Another narrow-range sideways consolidation day for NQ on Thursday, and it was also the third day of sideways consolidation, setting up for a breakout trending-up day for NQ on Friday.
The key price level; to watch will be at 18,250, If NQ could trade above 18,250 and the shorts may get forced to cover their position ahead of the weekend, we could see all day trending up trading pattern, with upside price target ranging from 18,400 to 18,500 as normal target.
Failure to trade above 18,250 is bearish, with NQ trading back down to 18,000-18,100 support zone.
Another narrow range sideways pattern for NQ on Wednesday. Without a larger pullback down move we are likely to continue to see more narrow range choppy price action.days.
On Thursday support is at 18,100 and resistance is at 18,200.
Another very narrow-range trading action for NQ on Tuesday. Without a decent pullback NQ is likely to continue to rally in a very narrow range fashion.
For Wednesday intraday support is at 18,100 and resistance is 18,265.
Inflection price level is at 18,200, bullish above, bearish below it.
A very narrow-range uptrend day for NQ on Monday as NQ is now in overbought zone on the 5-minute chart.
Key price level to watch for on Tuesday is at 18,200 as resistance, bullish above it with the next resistance at 18,400.
Trading below it is an indication NQ is going into a consolidation mode, first support is at 18,100, key support is 18,000.
A huge gap-up open for NQ on Friday following a very dovish Fed announcement on Wednesday and the returns of the stock buy-backs programs.
Will the market continue to rally on Monday or pullback down, will depends on where it trades in relation to its intraday support-resistance zone, 18,000, bullish above, with the next resistance at 18,100 then 18,200
Bearish below 18,000 with lower supports at 17,900 and 17,800.
A sideways trading action for NQ on Thursday, down in the morning then rallied the rest of the day.
NQ has traded over 100-points higher overnight. If it can stay at the same level by the time the regular trading session opens NQ would have a huge gap-up open.
Key inflection price level for NQ on Friday will be at 17,565, bullish above it with first resistance at 17,800 then 18,000.
Bearish below it, with first support at 17,400.
Wild swing in the market after the FOMC policy statement was announced. We can clearly see that key support is now at 17,400 and key resistance at 17,800, that's 400 points trading range.
On Thursday trading above 17,400 implies choppy sideways or a rally back to 17,800 for NQ. If NQ can break and stay above 17,800 we can see a fast move up to 18,000-18,100.
It is a crazy market, the FOMC was giving a mix signal on Wednesday, so anything is possible. Trading below 17,400 would be a clear indication NQ is going down to 16,700.
