Another short-covering up-day for NQ on Monday, the second consecutive up day. NQ should rally for one more day with the next resistance at 15,000-15,150.
The rally should continue as long as NQ can stay above 14,500 on any pullback decline.
Intraday inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday will be at 14,700, bullish above, bearish below with key downside support at 14,500 downside
As we went into Friday trading session NQ and all other major indices were in deep oversold zone on the daily chart thus an oversold bounces was to be expected.
As such, we witness a large short-covering rally for NQ and other major indices on Friday as traders took profit on their short position ahead of the weekend.
When the market opens on Monday we either see a continuation of the rally that started on Friday, or a retest of the recent lows.
Key price inflection zone will be at 14,500 on NQ, bullish above, with the next strong resistance coming in at 15,000 to 15,200 which could take one to two days to get reach it.
If NQ cannot breaks and or sustained a break above 14,500, sellers wil come back with a vengence, with first downside target at the recent lows, support zone is between 13,700-14,000
NQ has been trading inside a range between strong support at 13,700 to now strong resistance at 14,200-14,500. Until it breaks out of the range, NQ will continue to trade sideways.
Key intraday inflection price level for NQ on Friday will be at 14,150, bullish above, bearish below it.
Now that the January FOMC meeting is out of the way the stock market can trend again. Initial reaction to the DO-NOTHING Fed was positive, but then sellers came back in and sell the market hard.
Critical support for NQ on Thursday will be the January 24th NQ regular session swing low at 13,700.
NQ looks ready to crash through critical support of 13,700 on Thursday. However, should it hold as support we could see some profit-taking buying activities that could push the market back up again.
For now, the trend on the daily chart is down. The trend looks ready to resume down on Thursday.
Wednesday is the FOMC policy announcement day. What they say will be very important in deciding the direction the markets will take.
A less hawkish, and especially if they are not planning to taper, will cause the stock market to rockets upward for the next several months. Key resistance is at 15,000
We just have to wait.
Massive selling in the stock and crypto markets on Monday with NQ dropping down to previous swing high from January and April 2021 swing high which is now key support.
With the stock market in very overbought conditions and the Fed intervening aggressively to buy the market to push ahead of their meeting, NQ rallied over 500 points from the day low.
In overnight globex trading hours NQ has now dropped down about 300 points from the close of the day on Monday. If the Fed does not announce a change in their agressive tapering stance in the morning on Tuesday, and if the Fed is not ready with massive buy programs before the market open and continue into the regular trading hour, we could see another heavy selling.
My guess is the Fed will be prepared to pump trillions of dollars to support the market before the FOMC releases their announcement on Wednesday. But only time will tell.
On the intraday basis, key price level to watch on Tuesday will be at 14,500. If they could continue to push NQ above 14,500 we could see more short-covering, with the next upside target at 15,000, the 200-day moving average on the daily chart, now key resistance..
Key support is still around 13,800 prior swing high from February-April 2021, now key support.
Another very bearish day for NQ on Friday. The decline after the early morning rally was choppy because many traders were just using the decline to take profits on their short position at the end of the week.
NQ was dropping down to near a double-bottom support on the daily chart, a price level where many traders would start to buy the drop. After a consecutive 7-down days, NQ was also down to an oversold level on the daily chart.
When the market opens on Monday several factors will influence the trend for the market on Monday. The FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and then announce their decision on Wednesday afternoon and many traders may want to wait for the decision to make their major moves.
If on the other hand, the Fed continue to bluff their way and not make any concrete plan to taper, then the stock market should rocket up, and gold should rocket up, and crypto should rocket up.
For Monday intraday inflection level will be at 14,580 zone, bullish above and bearish below it.
Friday low was at double-bottom with October 2020 low, and NQ was in oversold zone on the daily chart, likely to cause a 1 to 3 days bounce.
NQ trend down on Wednesday but started out with a sideways price action until the buyers get overwhelmrd by selling.
On the daily chart, NQ is in overbought zone on Wednesday with the low sitting at 200-moving average on the daily chart. NQ can easily crash through it on Thursday or bounce before crashing through it.
Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be at 15,000, bullish or just sideways action above it with the first resistance at 15,220. NQ would have to be very bearish to break and trade below 15,000
A very bearish down day for NQ on Tuesday with NQ closing near the low of the day. Overnight NQ is already trading down over 100 points from the close.
If there is nothing to drastically change market dynamics at the open on Wednesday we could see NQ tanking down soon after the open as margin selling is triggered. If so key support is at the 200-moving average on the daily chart, now at 15,000. Although it is a strong support, we could see NQ breaking below it even if it is just a temporary break.
Key intraday price inflection level will be at 15,260, bullish above it with upside target at 15,500 as the shorts may be forced to cover.
After three days of pullback rally that failed to reach resistance, which is an indication of too much selling activities, NQ dropped down hard on Thursday as the dominant downtrend resumed.
With Friday which tends to be choppy, it is possible for NQ to just trade sideways on Friday before tanking again next week. But with such an overwhelming selling activities NQ could still trend down on Friday and continue tanking next week.
Against the backdrop of very high inflation the Fed may be forced to actually commence tapering instead of just jawboning and pretend to want to tap[er. If so, the crash is inevitable.
The next very important support level for NQ is 15.500. A clear and sustained break below that has the potential to crash NQ down to its next key support, the 200-day moving average on the daily chart, 14,950. That should also should break with por without a bounce. 13,80 - 13,14,000 is a much stronger support for a bounce.
Following two consecutive large up days NQ consolidated sideways on Wednesdays, still far below resistance at 16,150, even with a huge gap-up open and the subsequent short-covering activities that followed.
16,150-16,200 is a very formidable resistance zone for NQ, and if selling started below it reaches resistance its an indication the rally is weak and that heavy selling will hit the market if NQ is not able to break above 16,200.
NQ consolidated just slightly above and slightly below 15,900, which would bekey inflection price level on Thursday, bullish bias above it and bearish bias below it.
Inflation number for December 2021 released on Wednesday was hot at 7% which may force the Fed to start tapering which they have been talking about for months but has not started to do, with current M2 money supply still growing at 26% per year which is consistent with a producing 7% - 9% inflation rate
If the Fed does not start tapering soon, and with money supply still increasing at 26% per annum we would continue to see high inflation, and likely high stock prices.
On Tuesday NQ consolidated above support in the morning then quickly rocketed upward towards resistance and then spent most of the trading session trading sideways above 15,900 resistance where it either break through above it and triggered more short-covering, or reversed abck down from it.
Key resistance for NQ on Wednesday will be 15,900 resistance, A break is likely to trigger more rally, with the next resistance at 16,150, and failure to break could push NQ back down to support at 15,670.
December 2021 CPI reports will be released at 8.30 AM EST with could drastically change the market dynamics when the cash market opens at 9.30 AM EST.
A reversal day for NQ on Monday, with a huge gap-down and trend down in the morning then reversed at noon to close at the high of the day.
Whether or not it is just a one day reversal, we will have to wait, and will depends on where NQ trades soon after the open on Tuesday in relation to its key line-in-the-sand level.
For Tuesday NQ Line-in-the-Sand will be at 15,500, bullish above with the next target at 16,150-16,200, bearish below it, next support is at 14,900
After just one day of consolidation following a large two consecutive down days, NQ trend back down again on Friday, testing key support level, 15,500, at the low of the day
15,500 Will be key support going into Monday trading session, a beak or a bounce for it. NQ intraday trend direction for Monday will depends on where it trades in relation to key support level, 15,500.
With so many algos buying just above 15,500 tripple bottom support and prior swing high now support, a clear and sustained break could turn buyers into seller, thus can cause a massive/large down days with the next strong support being the 200-day moving average on the daily chart, now at around 14,900.
Key intraday inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be at 15,680, bullish above with next resistance at 15,780, bearish below with next support at 15,500
Following two consecutive large down days selling in NQ seems to be taking a pause on Thursday, with buyers and profit takers buying at between 15,500-15,600 price zone.
15,500-15,600 is a strong support, prior swing high having been retested two times and hold. As such, if it does not break tomorrow Friday, we could see a 2 to 4 days of sideways consolidation with upper resistance at 16,100 before breaking back down, that is, as long as 16,100 resistance level is not clearly violated on any rally..
Thus, if NQ does not crash below 15,600 on Friday, look for the downtrend to resume next week on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday the latest.
A very bearish day in the equity market on Wednesday with NQ dropping about 500 points from prior day close. The bearish trend should continue, perhaps with a pause when it dropped down to 15,500 strong support zone, or with NO pause. The next target below 15,500 is 14,800.
The FOMC minutes released on Wednesday contained two key information that has not been price in by market participants.. Everyone knows that the Fed is going to end its QE by March or April 2022. But what has not been priced in by the market are:
1. The Fed will starts reducing their balance sheet by April 2022, and
2. The Fed will raise its short term interest rates by April 2022.
If the Fed does not change this plan the stock market, the crypto market and the bond market will continue to crash and crash and crash.
On Thursday look for NQ to either trade sideways or crash again with the next support at 14,700.
Monday was a very bullish day with NQ finally trading back above key price level,.16,450 and closed above that level on Monday, setting up a huge rally on Tuesday.
However, on Tuesday sellers came in right from the opening bell and continue to unload their position until late afternoon when someone engineered a huge rally.
NQ is now in a bearish position as of the close on Tuesday. The pattern continue to be selling by insiders followed by buying by the public. This pattern is sure to be repeated until NQ breaks below key support and buyers gets trampled.
On Wednesday key support level is 16,150. As long as 16,150 is not clearly violated we could see a sideways or rally pastern for NQ on Wednesday.
Breaking below 16,150 is very bearish , with the next support is not until 15,500
NQ was choppy in the morning on Monday as the bulls and bears fight for dominance. At the end of the day the bulls won as NQ closed above key line-in-the-sand of 16,450.
Going forward, 16,450 will be key support level, with key level to break in order top trigger short-covering is 16,600. A sustained break above i16,450 ill be very bullish and could trigger all day short-covering rally..
Breaking back below 16,450 is bearish
Another down day for NQ on Friday, the last trading day of 2021. NQ dropped below key support level, 16,400 with Friday being the fourth down day in a row, a bearish sign going forward.
NQ would need to break back above 16,450 and then break above 16,600 to change the bias from bearish to bullish. Until NQ has trades back above 16,600, where trailing stop-loss are now congregating, look for NQ to be bearish.
The next support zone where we could expect a bounce is 16,000.
On an intraday basis, key inflection price level is at 16,370, with first resistance at 16,450
