NQ Guideline For Thursday

Wednesday was the second pullback-up consolidation day following a large trending down day on Monday.

 

The market trends to resume its trend, currently downtrend on the daily chart, on the third or forth day after a large trending day, and Thursday is the third day, thus there is a good possibility that the downtrend could resume on Thursday.

 

Key intraday price level to watch for on Thursday will be 7000.

-- Trading below 7000 is bearish, with the next support at 6860.  A clear break below 6860 could trigger a large and fast decline.

-- Trading above 7000 is bullish, with key resistance at 7100-7125 price zone.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

Following heavy selling and a very large down day on Monday the market consolidated sideways on Tuesday. Previous consolidation following a huge down days has lasted one day and three days, thus there is a possibility that Wednesday could be a huge down day.

 

With trailing stop-losses for those who bought the current decline congregating just below Tuesday low, the key price level to watch for will be Tuesday swing low.

 

Key price level to watch on Wednesday will be 6680 support and 6820 resistance.

-- A break above 6820 could trigger a quick move up to 6900 resistance where selling will come abck in that could overwhelm buying.

-- Breaking below 6680 is likely to trigger another round of selling that could cause a capitulation decline..

 

Facebook reported disappointing earning on Tuesday and could influence the market in a negative way on Wednesday

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

As expected and outlined in the last blog which was for Monday's trading session, the stock market sold off very hard on Monday.

 

There was a very large end of day rally on Monday as the market dropped down to some major daily support zone, helped by panic Fed-PPT who triggered massive buy programs to prevent the decline from getting out of control.

 

The previous time the market had a huge rally off the day low was two weeks ago which resulted in a large 3-day rally before continuing the downtrend. 

 

Would we see the same pattern playing out again, we just have to be aware of the possibility. If so the next strong resistance would be again at 7100.

 

Key intraday price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 6780 area, as of Monday's closing price is acting as resistance.

-- Failure to clearly break above 6780 is going to attract another round of selling. If so, we can see another sell-off day.

-- A break above 6780 could trigger some short-covering, If so the next resistance is 6900.

 

The bear market is still in progress at this time

NQ Guideline For Monday

The stock market consolidated, trading sideways on Friday, the second consolidation day following a very large trending down day on Wednesday last week.

 

If the selloff is to continue without a pullback, it should trend down again on Monday, and if so we should see a very large selloff day. The next downside target is 6500-6550 zone.

 

Key short term intraday inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be 6890.

-- Trading above 6890 should encourage some intraday buying and should rally NQ back up to retest Friday swing high. Should it breaks above Friday high and trigger some short-covering, it could rally back up to 7100 resistance.

-- Trading below 6890 could attract intraday selling programs, with key support at Friday's low. Should NQ clearly breaks below Friday low and run-over stop-losses we could see another liquidation decline.

NQ Guideline For Friday

Following a sharp sell-off on Wednesday, the stock market traded sideways in a consolidation fashion on Thursdays.

 

Disappointing earning from stocks such as Amazon and Facebook, to name a few, after the market close on Thursday tanked the market hard in overnight trading. NQ has already traded down over 200 points from the close.

 

Without massive intervention by the Fed-PPT on Friday could result in a stock market crash as there is no buyers when everyone was already long the market.

Key price level for NQ on Friday is Wednesday swing low of about 6800.

-- If the PPT can keep NQ above 6800 on Friday it should stabilized the market keeping it from crashing.

-- However, a sustained break (not a falsebreak) below 6800 has the potential to crash the market as the longs are forced to either top up their margin or get liquidated by the brokers.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

The stock market sold off very hard on Wednesday, particularly the technology stocks, with NQ dropping down over 300 points.

 

Usually following a large down day we get an oversold bounce, a sideways non-trending consolidation type of day.

 

However, a clear and sustained break below Wednesday swing low could trigger another large down day again, a crash.

 

For Thursday, support is Wednesday low and resistance is at 6960.

-- Failure to break above 6960 is going to attract another round of selling.

-- Breaking back above 6960 should trigger some short-covering rally, next resistance is at 7100 again.

-- Breaking below Wednesday low could cause another waterfall decline, but watch out for a false break below Wednesday low that could cause a fast reversal.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

With the mid-term election only a few weeks away and the fact that President Trump could not afford to see the Republican lose control of the house and or the senate, he is going to do whatever it takes to keep the stock market up.

 

Thus on Tuesday, after losing the 7100 price level key support when the NQ opened with a huge gap-down and ready to crash through the October low the Fed-PPT has to intervene aggressively, as we see how NQ rally over 200 points from the day low, and rallied the Dow and S&P 500 stocks as well.



It is a battle between the global forces of deflation versus the Trump buy programs. Trump promised to cut middle income tax rate by 10% did not help the market. Deflation will win, but in the short run there is always a chance Trump buy programs may win the battle.

For NQ on Wednesday, key price level to watch for will be 7200-7210 price zone.
-- If they are able to push NQ up above 7210 it could trigger some short covering that can cause a sharp rally. The next strong resistance is at 7350.
-- Failure to break-back above 7200-7210 resistance area could attract another round of selling. If so, key support is again the October low.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday the Fed-PPT managed to caused a huge gap-up opening for NQ to just below key 200-ma resistance on the 5-minute chart, but buy programs failed to break above the 200-ma as sellers came in to sell the resistance.

 

NQ then tanked down to key support which is at 7100, just below 200-dma daily, a support level that the PPT has been defending for the previous two trading sessions.

 

7100 will continue to be key price level to watch, as a break below could cause a cascade of selling as stop-losses get run-over.

 

Key equilibrium price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 7150.

-- IF NQ can stay above 7150 at the open on Tuesday we could see some rally, with resistances at 7200 and 7240, price levels where sellers could come back in to sell. A clear break above 7240 could trigger short covering rally, with the next higher resistance at 7350

. -- Trading below 7150 in the morning will be bearish, with well defended support at 7100. Should 7100 breaks, it could trigger a cascade of selling as stop-losses get run-over. Failure to break will cause another bounce.

NQ Guideline For Monday

After opening with a gap-up and run up to resistance on Friday NQ then continue its decline closing at the day low, a down day for NQ on Friday. NQ continues to be in sell mode on the daily chart..

 

Key price level for NQ for Monday will be 7100 support and 7160 resistance, (7100-7180 trading range). A sustained break out of the 7100-7160 trading range is likely to trigger fast trending move in the direction of the break.

-- A break above 7160 could trigger some short-covering rally, with higher resistance at 7200, then 7240. With trailing stop-losses for the shorts now above 7240, a clear break could rocket NQ higher, with strong resistance at 7350. 

-- Should NQ clearly breaks below 7100 it could cause a waterfall decline as trailing stop-losses for the longs now congregating below 7100 get run-over.

 

Potential trading range breakout (7100-7160)

 

NQ Guideline For Friday

A large down day for NQ on Thursday, breaking below several support level, including breaking below the 200-dma daily, but then managed to close above key 200-dma daily.

 

Key inflection price level for NQ on Friday will be the 200-dma daily, at 7125 as of Thursday close.

-- Trading back below 7125 is bearish but it would need to break below 7040 to trigger an avalanche of selling with critical support at 6910 as stop-losses for buyers are now congregating below 7140

-- Trading above 7125 should reduce selling pressure, NQ may rally or trade sideways, particularly since Friday tends to be a choppy sideways type of day.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

As usual, following a large rally on Tuesday NQ traded sideways in a consolidation apttern on Wednesday, setting up a potential breakout day.

 

Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be 7200 support and 7350 resistance.

-- A breakout to the upside above 7350 is likely to run over stop-losses for the sellers, triggering short-covering rally. If so, it should rocket up to resistances. Strong resistance resides around 7445 to 7459, prior swing low and 20-dma daily and 50-dma daily.

-- A breakout below 7200 is going to run over trailing stop-losses for the buyers, could tank NQ down to 200-dma daily. Should the 200-dma breaks, it would result in a crash.

 

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

Stock market crash has now been avoided, at least for now. The Fed/PPT was able to cause the market to open with a gap-up above the 200-dma daily and above prior day high, triggering a breakout day.

 

Then buy programs continued all day, running over stop-losses, with massive buy programs triggered near the close rocketed NQ up about 100 points in a very short period of time. NQ closed at around prior swing low from July 30th which is around 7350, now still acting as resistance,

 

There may be some selling from prior low resistance sellers, first at around 7350 area and then at 7445 area but should the Fed triggers another round of buy programs, 7350 and 7445 should break, as the next strong resistance zone is not until NQ has rallied to its 20-dma and 50-dma daily at around 7459-7500 area.

 

Key support now is below Tuesday swing low, 7150, as trailing stop-losses now congregates below 7150.

-- Thus NQ could just continue to rally as long as it does not break back below 7150 on Wednesday.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

NQ traded sideways inside prior day range all day on Monday, with a bearish close, and it was an "inside" day.

 

An inside day is an excellent setup for a breakout day as stop-losses tends to congregate above and below the trading range. A sustained break out of the range should produce a fast and large trending move in the direction of the break 

 

All major stock market indices, including NQ, S&P 500, Dow, remains in crash mode as of Monday closing, and Tuesday could be the day the sell-off resumes, .

 

The breakout is likely to the downside as both Nasdaq 100 futures contract (NQ) and S&P 500 Futures contract ES closed below their respective 200-dma daily, a very bearish setup. Dow close right at its 200-dma daily, thus if Dow break below its 200-dma daily the sell-off should be fast and large.

For NQ, key trading range to break is 7040 - 7200.

-- 7040 is critical support for NQ on Tuesday as stop-loss congregates below it. A break below 7040 will start to run-over the stop-losses, triggering an avalanche of selling.

-- If the PPT is able to cause a rally above 7200, and run-over trailing stop-losses, we could see a fast and large rally. with resistances at 7300 and 7445 (prior low now resistance)

NQ Guideline For Monday

A sideways consolidation type of day for NQ on Friday, setting up a fast move UP or DOWN if NQ breaks out of Friday's trading range, and a fast reversal on a false breakout.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be 7115.

-- Key resistance is Friday high at 7195. A sustained break above 7195 is likely to trigger a short-covering rally, higher resistance are at 7300, 7350, 7445 all prior swing low now resistances.

-- Key support is at Friday low 7040. With trailing stop-losses for buyers who bought Thursday low now congregating below 7040, a sustained break below 7040 on Monday is likely to trigger massive selling programs, which if it breaks below Thursday low 6910 could cause a crash, with double bottom supports at 6500 and then 6400

NQ Guideline For Friday

NQ rallied in the morning, then sell-off then rallied again into the close, creating a doji day on the daily chart.

 

On Friday, NQ either crash or consolidate sideways similar to Tuesday price action, as it will depends on where the Dow trades in relation to its key 200-dma daily. Dow breaking its 200-dma could crash the market. Dow bouncing off 200-dma could cause rally or consolidation.

 

Key resistance for NQ on Friday will be 7112 the 200-dma daily now acting as resistance. May cause some short-covering above it, but strong selling pressure below it.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

On Wednesday NQ opened below its prior day low, a breakout day, which implies a trending down day with very small chance of a reversal.

 

S&P 500 futures opened below its key 50-day moving average, triggering massive algorithm sell programs. Dow futures the YM opened below its 20-dma daily, triggering 20-dma algos sell programs. A perfect storm, with all the three major indices all selling, triggering massive down day in all the 3 major indices.

 

On Wednesday, while NQ closed decisively below its 200-dma daily, S&P 500 closed just slightly above its 200-dma daily and Dow futures YM close quite a bit above its 200-dma daily, setting up a very interesting day on Thursday.

 

With NQ clearly below its key 200-dma and S&P 500 slightly shove its 200-dma daily, Thursday price action would greatly depends on where the S&P 500 trades at in relation to its 200-dma daily.

-- If there is enough buyers at the 200-dma daily to hold-off an avalanche of selling, we could see the market bounce.

-- A break below the 200-dma daily in the S&P would spell disaster for the market as selling would overwhelm buying. 

As for NQ intraday price action on Thursday, key resistance to break will be its 50-ma on the 5-minute chart.

-- Trading below its 50-ma  on the 5-minute charts implies continual fast selloff, with NO support NQ could just continue to crash.

-- Breaking back above 50-ma implies an A-B-C wave rally, targeting 200-ma on the 5-min chart.

 

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday NQ tried to rally above 7445 prior swing low, now resistance, but failed thus triggered some selling that push NQ back down to morning low.

 

It was a sideways consolidation type of pattern for NQ on Tuesday, setting up a rally day or a sell-off day on Wednesday.

 

Key price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 7445 resistance

-- A clear break above 7445 could trigger short-covering rally up to 50-dma daily resistance now at 7525.

-- Failure to break above 7445 could attract another round of selling, with key support at 7260, prior swing high that caused a sharp bounce on Monday.

-- A break below 7260 could cause another round of liquidation selling as stop-loss get run-over, next support is at 200-dma daily, now at 7100.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday NQ opened with a gap-down, then closed the gap before dropping back down to below prior day low. NQ rallied in the afternoon and close at the open, creating a doji candle on the daily chart.

 

With the bond market open on Tuesday the direction of the stock market will depends on the bond market. A rising yield is bearish for the stock market and a declining bond yield is bullish for the stock market.

 

Key price level for NQ on Tuesday will be Monday's swing high, as trailing stop-loss for the shorts now congregates just above Monday's high of 7440.

-- A break above Mondays swing high could trigger short-covering. If so resistance is at 7530 the 50-dma daily and 7570 the 20-dma daily.

-- Trading below Monday high implies another large down day or consolidation day. Downside target remains at 200-dma daily, 7100. Potential support is at 7260 prior swing high from March 2018

NQ Guideline For Monday

On Thursday last week NQ broke decisively below key 50-dma support on the daily chart, triggering algorithm sell programs, tanking NQ down, but end of day profit-taking managed to rally NQ back to the 50-dma daily at the close, making the 50-dma daily as key line-in-the-sand for NQ on Friday.

 

Then on Friday, NQ opened at the key 50-dma  but was not able to break above it, thus triggering another round of algorithm sell programs, tanking NQ further down to below Thursday swing low.

 

Again the end of day and end of week profit-taking activities managed to cause NQ to rally into the close but it closed way below the 50-dma daily, now acting as strong resistance.

 

For Monday, key intraday price level will be 7400. NQ closed above 7400 on Friday

-- If NQ remains above 7400 at the open on Monday and can stay above 7400 soon after the open NQ could rally up to 7520, which will be a strong resistance as 7520 is the current price level of the 50-dma on the daily chart.

-- If NQ trades back below 7400 on Monday it could trigger another rounds of selling, but with most trailing stop-loss now below Friday swing low of 7350, NQ would need to break below 7350 low to trigger another round of liquidation selling, if so the next potential support is at 7200-7250.

 

Downside target remain at 200-dma daily, at 7100

NQ Guideline For Friday

On Thursday NQ opened below prior day low which triggered breakout selling algos which then start to run over trailing stops for the longs, which caused it to tank easily breaking below its 20-dma on the daily chart, then crashing below its 50-dma on the daily chart. Thursday was a large down day for NQ.

 

NQ managed to rally at the end of the day and managed to closed just below its 50-dma on the daily chart, which was broken, making the 50-dma which sat at 7525 at the close on Thursday a key resistance level on Friday.

 

For Friday NQ resistance is at 7525 and support at 7457 which is Thursday swing low.

-- Failure to break-back above 7525 is bearish, but key support is at 7457, Thursday low. NQ needs to clearly break below 7457 to trigger another round of liquidation selling. If so, potential supports are at 7430 then 7370.

The Fed and or the PPT is sure to intervene aggressively on Friday to prevent stock market crash. Will they succeed will depends on where NQ trades in relation to its key level, 7457 support, 7525 resistance.

 

A breakout of the range could cause a fast move out of the 7457-7525 trading range

NQ Guideline For Thursday

NQ again traded sideways in the morning on Wednesday with a typical pattern of morning rally that get dump in the afternoon as insider continue to download their stocks ahead of the upcoming bear market. This is indeed a typical topping pattern.

For NQ,  the late August-early September swing high of 7725 continues to be a formidable resistance with double-top selling stopping every attempt to break through that level to the upside. NQ would need to break to the upside soon before selling totally overwhelm buying and tanking NQ down.

 

Key inflection price level for NQ on Thursday will be at 7675, the 200-period moving average on the 5-minute chart. Strong resistance is around 7725, and strong support is around 7580

-- NQ is bullish above 7675, especially if overnight market manipulator is able to cause an opening gap-up to above 7675.

-- NQ is bearish below 7675, with critical support at 7653. A break below 7653 could tank NQ down to 7580 support.

Current NQ trading range on the daily chart is 7580-7725

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday, NQ morning rally failed to reach the 7725 double-top resistance as double-top sellers became even more aggressive, selling way below 7725, pushing NQ back down to retest the early morning low before end of day profit-taking caused a small bounce near the close.

 

Key line-in-the-sand for NQ on Wednesday will be 7675, with intraday support at 7635 and resistance is again at 7725.

-- With the daily algo buyers not involved until NQ dropped down to near 7565, look for 7635 as key intraday support, a break below likely to trigger heavy selling, lower support is at 7565, the 20-dma on the daily chart

-- If the overnight market manipulators are able to cause NQ to trade back above 7675 at the open, look for intraday buyers to try to rally NQ back up to retest the double-top 7725 resistance.

 

Insiders continue to dump their shares at record pace on every rally, often called pump-n-dump, a typical characteristics of market topping price action

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

A big opening gap-up above prior day high triggered short-covering rally, but heavy selling by the double-top algo sellers coming in around 7725 stopped the rally, sending NQ back down to key intraday support of FT Pivot and the 200-period moving average on the 5-minute chart which on Monday was at 7655.

 

There was a small profit-taking bounce for NQ at the end of the day, which pushed NQ back up to slightly above the 200-ma  on the 5-min chart, which at the end of the day sat at 7670

 

On Tuesday, the 200-ma  on the 5-min chart has gone a bit higher to 7670, which will serve as key line-in-the-sand for NQ on Tuesday.

-- If the opening is above 7670, with the daily algos already long, NQ has to rely on the intraday buyers to push the market up to retest the 7725. A retest of 7725 is going to trigger another round of double-top selling

-- If however, NQ opened and trade below 7670 on Tuesday, intraday 5-minute algos selling could tank NQ down to the next lower support at 7618. Then if the market do get very bearish, NQ could then continue to drop down to daily support, the 20-dma

 

The 20-dma support on the daily chart does not come into play until NQ has dropped down to near 7565.