NQ Guideline For Friday

NQ declined down to its 50-day moving average support on the daily chart before it started to bounce and the rallied the rest of the day with a close at key resistance on the shorter term intraday time frame.

 

On the 60-minute timeframe chart NQ, from its June 21st high, NQ is showing a clear 5-wave decline pattern with its wave 5 completed on Thursday morning before bouncing.

 

As long as Thursday low remains intact we should see more rally on Friday back towards 7160 resistance area, likely in an a-b-c wave pattern.

NQ Guideline for Thursday

Trump trade war rhetoric tanked the stock market on Wednesday, with the Dow now clearly below its key 200-day moving average it is vulnerable to intense selling if it continue to trade lower.

On Wednesday, NQ traded up towards resistance soon after the open, then sold off hard traded down to support, a very large down day for NQ.

 

With Wednesday's low just above its 50-day moving average support, a bounce is likely on Thursday. However, should NQ failed to bounce off its 50-dma, and instead, break below it right away, the drop could be fast and large as the next major support is not until 6885 

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday the stock market consolidated its large Monday sell-off. With the Dow remaining below its key 200-day moving average support, a crazy tweet from Trump could easily start another round of selling which will then drag all the indices lower.

 

NQ resistance remains at 7160 and support at 7000

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

Spooked by President Trump trade war rhetoric, the stock market opened with a huge gap-down on Monday, then sold off very hard all day although they were able to trigger a huge rally at the end of the day.

The Dow again broke below its key 200-day moving average on Monday, its third test and its third break. Although buyers were able to push it up at the end of the day, it looks very ready for a massive sell-off. On a clear break below the 200-dma, the selloff can easily trigger a very bearish "death cross" technical condition.

 

For NQ on Tuesday, support is at 7000, and resistance is at 6160, a 160 points trading range

-- As long as NQ remains above 7000 selling may have been exhausted, until 7160 resistance.

-- A break below 7000 is likely to trigger another round of selling, and the next major support is 6650.

 

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

Trade war between China and the United States continues to weigh heavy on the stock market particularly affecting the large cap stock that do business with China, such as Boeing, Caterpillar, etc, which sold off hard on Tuesday.

Trade war should intensify going forward and it is very deflationary. Already the Dow is on the verge of breaking below its key 50-day moving average. A break below will be very bearish and could drag the other market down with it.

 

With everyone long the market, believing Central banks will continue to support the market, and without any other buyers except central banks, a break below key technical support could crash the stock market very quickly.

 

For NQ on Wednesday, key inflection price level is 7230, bullish above, bearish below.  

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

Again, massive buy program came to the rescue of a potential sell-off on Monday as a large opening gap-down was immediate bought aggressively.

 

Deflationary selling is starting to gain an upper hand against the buyers. Trade war initiated by the trump administration against the whole world  is starting to get more intense, and investors are starting to take action, unloading their grossly over-valued stock positions ahead of a potential global collapse resulting from trade war.

On the short term time frame, for NQ, key support on Tuesday will be 7230 and key resistance is 7280.

-- Continue sideways actions if NQ remains inside the range, 7230 - 7280.

-- A sustained breakout could trigger a strong move out of the range.

NQ Guideline For Friday

The stock market rally again on Friday on dovish message from ECB and aggressive central banks buying.

Aggressive buying should continue for a while longer in order to paint positive sentiment but deflationary forces is starting to gain momentum, now negatively affecting emerging market as a result of sharp dollar rally.

 

On the short term timeframe, as long as NQ remains above its 20-dma on the daily chart, buy programs should continue to overwhelm selling, should continue to push the stock market upward.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

The stock market sold off after the Fed decision was announced on Wednesday, not a bullish sign. Now that the Fed decision is out of the way the next announcement to watch for is the ECB announcement on Thursday.

With everyone bullish on the stock market, and with everyone long the stock market, any hint of ending their QE by the ECB could end the current equity market rally, and begin the decline. With everyone long the market, lack of buyers could cause a fast decline.

 

Key support for NQ on Thursday is 7230.

-- Bearish below 7230, lower support is 7200

-- Bullish above 7230.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

Ahead of the FOMC policy decision announcement on Wednesday the stock market simply traded sideways as sellers continue to sell into buy programs.

Buy programs should continue to be very aggressive on Wednesday. Whether or not the stock market will continue to rally on Wednesday depends on how much selling is triggered after the FOMC announcement.

 

Key support for NQ on Wednesday will be 7200.

 

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

Ahead of the FOMC decision on Wednesday and the then ECB decision on Thursday the stock market rallied on Monday.

Buy programs is going to be aggressive as we get closer to the FOMC and the ECB decision in order to create a bullish sentiment particularly as the Fed is certain to raise interest rate again, and then the ECB is expected to announce the timing of the end of their QE programs, both actions are very deflationary.

 

NQ short term support on Tuesday (September contract) is  7190, bullish above, bearish below

NQ Guidelien For Friday

on Thursday, NQ failed to continue its Wednesday's break above the key March swing high, and instead, pullback down quite hard on Thursday, whether it was due to profit-taking or due to heavy deflationary selling it is difficult to say, but without massive buying by the Fed, a break could turn into a false break.

 

If so, we could see heavy selling should NQ break-back below key support price level, now sitting at 7000 price level on the June contract.

 

For Friday key price level for NQ is 7170.

- -Bullish above

-- Bearish below, next support is 7000

NQ Guideline For Thursday

After pulling back down to support in the morning buy programs was again triggered to keep the uptrend alive, particularly ahead of the G7 meeting this weekend in Canada.

With NQ making a new high at the end of the day on Wednesday buy programs is likely to get active overnight to trigger a gap-up opening to force short sellers to cover their short positions, rocketing the market higher.

 

Key support for NQ on Thursday is 7190

--Rally continues above 7190.

-- Larger pullback expected on a break below 7190