NQ Guideline For Friday

NQ opened and then immediately rallied in the morning on Thursday, but is inability to clearly break and stayed above 4430 resistance attracted short-sellers that tanked NQ hard in the afternoon. Only a large end of day buy program triggered after the close of regular trading hours managed to pushed NQ back up above 4373 Wednesday's low after breaking below it.

 

NQ has broken below its 20-DMA five days ago, and had just broken below its 50-DMA on Thursday, setting up severe selling pressure unless it could break back above its 50-DMA and its 20-DMA.

 

Key support for NQ on Friday will be 4373.

-- Staying above 4373 should keep short-seller at bay but it has to break above 4400 and stay above 4400 to turn bullish, with strong resistance at 4430 - 4440 area.

-- A sustained break below 4373 is likely to trigger massive selling algo, next support will be 4300.

 

The U.S. Economy Officially Joins The Global Economic Slowdown – 1st Quarter GDP Comes In At 0.5%

The U.S. economy is slowing down. On Thursday, we learned that U.S. GDP grew at just a 0.5 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2016.  This was lower than analysts were anticipating, and it marks the third time in a row that the GDP number has declined compared to the previous quarter.  In other words, GDP growth has been declining for close to a year now.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

A major selloff in Apple shares dragged down NQ tanking the index hard in the morning. It took the Fed buyers until late afternoon with the FOMC announcement of NO rate hike before they were able to rescue the market. NQ close the day just below 4430 previously acting as support now resistance for Thursday.

 

Key inflection price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4430.

-- Selling should be subdued if NQ can stay above 4430, with the next resistance at 4470.

-- Sellers may be back if NQ could not break and stay above 4430, first support is 4400 then critical support is at 4375 area. A clear and sustained break below 4375 area could attract major selling programs.

 

As Tom McClellan pointed out today, the VXX indicator below is indicating the current market rally is at risk, may or may not have topped, and selloff could be soon and severe.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

NQ sold off most of the day on Tuesday until the very end of the day when the usual end of day profit-taking rally pushed NQ up from its day low.

 

With NQ tanking in overnight trading after a disappointing AAPL earning reports, unless the Fed would come in aggressively with their buy programs throughout the night and into the regular trading hours on Wednesday, we could see massive selloff in NQ on Wednesday as so many funds are currently long AAPL stock. With many unable to top up their margin call as the market opens on Wednesday look for the market to selloff. So far tonight Apple share is down over $8 and has wiped out over $40 billion in Market Cap.

 

Key inflection price level for NQ going into Tuesday trading will be 4430.

-- Bearish below 4430, next key support is 4400.

-- If NQ can rally back above 4430 by the time the market opens on Wednesday the selloff should be under control.

 

Economy In Decline: Apple Reports Massive Revenue Decline As iPhone Sales Plummet Dramatically

Corporate revenues in the United States have been falling for quite some time, but now some of the biggest companies in the entire nation are reporting extremely disappointing results.  On Tuesday, Apple shocked the financial world by reporting that revenue for the first quarter had fallen 7.4 billion dollars compared to the same quarter last year.  That is an astounding plunge, and it represents the very first year-over-year quarterly sales decline that Apple has experienced since 2003.  Analysts were anticipating some sort of drop, but nothing like this.  And of course last week we learned that Google and Microsoft also missed revenue and earnings projections for the first quarter of 2016.  The economic crisis that began during the second half of 2015 is really starting to take hold, and even our largest tech companies are now feeling the pain.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

A sideways narrow-range trading action in the market on Monday, with NQ closing at the day high. With the FOMC two days meeting starting on Tuesday look for buy programs to get really active in their attempt to push the market up, fighting against deflationary forces.

 

Recently, earning reports has been mostly below expectation with gloomy future earning guidance. Against that backdrop it would be difficult for the FOMC to find reasons to justify interest rate increase on Wednesday. If so, look for the Fed to engineered massive buy programs to make the market looks bullish.

 

Inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4470.

-- Bullish above 4470 with the next resistance at 4500.

-- Bearish below 4470, but buy programs is likely to keep the market from selling off, unless NQ can break below 4430, which is likely to trigger algo sell programs. 

NQ Guideline For Monday

The market opened and sold off hard in the morning on Friday. The end of the week profit-taking activities in the afternoon helped to stall the decline as NQ rallied into the close. Whether or not sellers will come back to sell the market on Monday will depend on if NQ can stay above Friday's swing low, now its key support level for Monday.

 

Inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be 4450.

-- Trading above 4450 is likely to subdue selling activities but strong resistance resides at 4500 where short-sellers could come in hard if NQ could not mount a clear and sustained break above 4500.

-- Trading below 4450 is bearish and could trigger another round of algos selling programs. Next support is 4400.

NQ Guideline For Friday

NQ traded sideways again all day into the close of the regular trading hours. However, disappointing earning reports from such companies as Microsoft and Google, just before the close, tanked the market down, NQ dropped over 50 points in the last 15 minutes of trading.

 

Whether or not Friday is going to be a bearish day would depends on where it trades in relation to its 20-DMA support on the daily chart, which for Friday will be at 4500.

 

- If NQ can stay above 4500 key support, it would either trades sideways or rally to resistance, first resistance at 4535.

-- Inability to stay above 4500 could trigger algos sell programs, first downside target is at 4440, then 4400.

 

Microsoft stock belly-flops on earnings miss, tax hit, and weak guidance

NQ Guideline For Thursday

Another narrow-range sideways price action for NQ on Wednesday as the Fed buy programs continues to battle the market forces of deflation.

 

The equity market would need large selloff to trap the short-seller before the uptrend can get a new burst of momentum. Until then, the uptrend is likely to continue to rally in a choppy narrow-range pattern.

 

On the short term timeframe inflection price level is at 4540. However, without much buying power left the market could continue to chop around.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

As usual, NQ opened with a gap-up on Tuesday, but then it sold off hard all morning, down to just above 4500 strong support before buy programs kicked in and profit-taking triggered a rally into the close.

 

NQ closed just below inflection price level, which is 4545, but has since trades down to near Tuesday in after hours trading. Where it trades when the market opens in the morning on Wednesday is going to decide whether NQ is going to rally or selloff.

 

-- Trading above 4545 is going to keep the short sellers at bay. However, trading below 4545 is going to attract short selling activities, with first support at 4500.

-- A break below 4500 is likely to trigger another round of short-selling, next support is 4475.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

Another choppy sideways trading pattern for NQ on Monday. A gap-down opening was aggressive bought but without new buyers, once the Fed buy programs fades away the market seems to drift sideways.

 

Without large pullback decline to trap the shorts, the current uptrend is likely to stay choppy and slow.

 

Inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday is 4545.

-- Bullish above 4545, an indication NQ is going to rally to higher high right away.

-- Trading below 4545 may trigger some sell programs, but large buy programs may be just waiting to be triggered at support.

 

Greenspan Admits The Fed's Plan Was Always To Push Stocks Higher

 

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted in an interview with Sara Eisen that quantitative easing did what it was supposed to do, which was to inflate stock prices and drive multiple expansion. 

NQ Guideline For Monday

NQ traded sideways in a very narrow-range on Friday. Without any new buyers the market is going to either trade sideways or sell-off.

On the 5-minute chart, inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be 4540.

-- Bullish above 4540 but the upside momentum is really slowing down that it needs massive buy programs to get NQ going up in a major way.

-- Bearish below 4540 but unless the market is really bearish look for buy programs to rally the market back up.

NQ Guideline For Friday

With the Fed as the only major buyer of the stock market, they were unable to push the market higher on Thursday, but managed to keep the stock market moving sideways, maintaining its bull trend on the daily chart.

 

On Friday, as long as there is no unexpected major market moving news that can cause a major selloff, the market should continue to go up, with the longer term upside target at 4700 for NQ.

 

The Fed would love to get the Dow and the S&P 500 to a higher-high above its 2015 swing high, just to trigger buying stampede, both due to panic short-covering and also triggering new euphoric buying binge by those still sitting on the sideline. Whether or not they will succeed in pushing the major indices into higher-high, only time will tell.

 

On the short term time frame, key inflection price level for NQ on Friday will be 4550.

-- Trading above 4550 is an indication NQ is likely to break out to the upside.

-- Breaking below 4550 implies a move lower, next support is 4525. A sustained break below 4525 could trigger algo sell programs, lower support is at 4500

 

Gold Inversely Correlated To The USD. With the USD expected to trend down for several years look for gold rally to continue.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

On Wednesday NQ opened with a gap to the upside, but it was clear that it was mainly the Fed algos buying the market as NQ just traded sideways all day long. Clearly, there was not much buyers participation in this current rally.

 

With the Fed continuing their secret emergency meeting this week, it should be clear to us that the Fed buy programs should continue to be active in the market in their fight against global deflationary forces.

On the daily chart, NQ is breaking out to the upside, under normal circumstance, it should continue to the upside, but with the market grossly manipulated, anything is possible.

 

Inflection price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4540.

-- Trading above 4540 implies NQ is still in a breakout mode.

-- Trading back below 4540 is an indication NQ is going into a consolidation mode, and as long as any decline does not get out of control, the uptrend should resume.

 

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

The equity market opened and tried to sell off right away on Tuesday, with NQ breaking below it 20-DMA on the daily chart, and that was the last thing the Fed would like to see. As expected, massive buy programs was then triggered to push the market up all day long, which continued into the close.

 

The Fed has secret emergency meeting every day this week, the topic of discussion that no one knows as the meetings are secret. Likely discussion is likely some derivative meltdown somewhere, possible concerning the Deutsche Bank situation, but that is just a guess.

 

In any case, they got NQ to close above its 20-DMA which should keep major sell algos at bay, making it much easier to manipulate prices back up again on Wednesday.

 

Key inflection price level for NQ on Wednesday will be at 4475 again.

-- As long as NQ can stay above 4475, short-sellers will be kept at bay, but NQ would need to clearly break above 4500 to trigger some short-covering.

-- NQ is bearish below 4475, first support is 4455.

 

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

Another down day for NQ on Monday, the third down day in a row for NQ. The uptrend momentum on the daily chart is slowing down, with NQ still trading above its 20-DMA support, now at 4440 area.

 

Breaking below its 20-DMA implies a potentially larger pullback down to its next logical downside target at its 50-DMA. However, another critical support that can stall its downside move is its 200-DMA, now hovering around 4390-4400.

 

Short term key inflection price level for NQ will be 4475.

-- Trading below 4475 would put more selling pressure on NQ, with first and critical support at 4440. A break below 4440 could trigger major algo sell programs, next support will be 4390-4400.

-- Staying above 4475 would relieve selling pressure but NQ would need to get back above 4500 to trigger some short-covering rally.

 

European Banks, particularly Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse, continues to crash

NQ Guideline For Monday

Another down day in the equity market on Friday, and it was the second down day in a row. With the Fed not willing to let the market sold off for the third day in a row, they will most likely engineered buy programs on Monday. How successful will they be against continuing deflationary pressure, only time will tell.

 

The Fed has also called for emergency meeting of the Fed governors on Monday likely to discuss strategies to negate the negative impact of upcoming GDP reports that would be way lower than estimates.

 

The daily timeframe is still in a solid uptrend with NQ still trading above several solid supports. It would take a major sell-off to change the bullish technical picture.

 

On the short term 5-minute timeframe, key inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be 4470.

-- NQ trading above 4470 is an indication that it is likely on its way to resume its uptrend, next resistance is 4500.

-- Staying below 4470 is bearish and likely to get sold, but strong support is at 4440. It would need a very bearish market mood to clearly violate 4440 support.

NQ Guideline For Friday

A down day in the market on Thursday with NQ down over 80 points from Wednesday's close. Recently the major stock indices have not been able to rally more than one day at a time as investors continues to go short against the Fed buy programs.

 

On Thursday NQ closed at key inflection price level, 4470, setting up another sell-off day or consolidation or rally.

-- Trading above 4470 indicates NQ is either going into a consolidation mode or a rally mode. Key resistance to break will be 4500. NQ needs to trade above 4500 to trigger some short-covering.

-- Remaining below 4470 is likely to trigger some short-selling, but NQ needs to break and stay below Thursday swing low to trigger major sell programs.

 

ECB Losing Control

In Naples, Italy, riots against Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resulted in clashes between police and demonstrators.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

With the Fed release of their minutes from their March meeting it is clearly understood they were likely to engineered large buy programs in order to rally the market, particularly when they know that so many investors are shorting the market.

 

Since major stock indices has not been able to rally more than one day at a time, it should not be a surprise if the market consolidate on Thursday, unless of course major buy programs can hit the market again.

 

Key support level going into Thursday trading will be 4515.

-- Staying above 4515 is an indication Wednesday rally is still in progress.

-- Breaking below 4515 is an indication NQ is going into a consolidation mode with the first support at 4495.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

Tuesday was the second pullback down days for major stock indices. If the Fed is to avoid major algos to go short, it is crucially important that the market should rally back up again on Wednesday, and in the process, keeps the daily uptrend intact.

 

Key  inflection price level for NQ on Wednesday will be 4470.

-- As long as NQ can stay above 4470, short-sellers will be subdued, but NQ would need to trade back above 4495 to trigger short-covering rally.

-- Trading back below 4470 is bearish, and may attract some short-selling.

 

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

After a strong Fed driven rally on Friday the market pullback down on Monday, a narrow range down day, with NQ dropping down to 4495 support. There was no follow-through buying on Monday.

 

Key price level for NQ on Monday will be 4495.

-- Trading below 4495 could drops NQ down to the next support level 4470. If 4475 support can hold then we can see buyers coming in to buy, if not, we may see some more liquidation drop to the next support of 4440.

-- Trading above 4495 implies current pullback has ended, an indication NQ rally is resuming to the next upside target of 4600.

 

Crude Oil is getting sold ahead of OPEC Doha meeting

NQ Guideline For Monday

A large opening gap-down must have spooked the Fed as they immediately engineered one of the biggest buy programs, ran over short-sellers and ensure the market close near the high of the day.

 

With major stock indices clearly in a very strong up mode, look for the uptrend to continue, but they are now approaching overbought territory on the daily chart. Overbought conditions either slows down the rally or causes a big pullback down move, either way it would be wise to starts unloading some long positions.

 

On the 5 minute timeframe, key support for Monday will be 4505.

-- Trading above 4505 is an indication NQ is still in a fast move up.

-- Breaking below 4505 is an indication NQ is pulling back down to lower support level, which is 4490