NQ Guideline for Thuirsday

With Thursday as the last trading day of the year, there will be the last minute squaring of the books by traders and investors so anything is possible.

 

Support for NQ on Thursday will be 4630 then 4600.

Resistance is 4680 then 4700.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

The usual overnight buy programs designed to cause a gap-up open in order to trigger short-covering rally did just that on Tuesday. NQ opened with a gap-up above key resistance that ignited short-covering rally that lasted all day long.

 

Unless some unexpected negative market moving news hit the market on Wednesday the uptrend should continue, with a morning pullback or without a morning pullback.

 

With most traders out of the office until the beginning of the new year market manipulators should not have much problem pushing the market higher.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

With the end of the year and into January seasonal bias to the bullish side, Monday morning selloff in the market was reversed, NQ rallied the rest of the day and then close at the day high which was above the early morning high and right at FT Pivot resistance, and above key inflection price level of 4600 for Tuesday.

 

As long as NQ can stay above 4600 it should remain bullish but it has to clearly break above 4630 to ignite another round of short-covering, failure to break clearly above 4630 could attract short sellers that could send NQ back down to 4575 support. However, NQ needs to break below 4575 to trigger another round of selling.

 

Key resistance for NQ on Tuesday is 4630.

-- Failure to break clearly above 4630 could send NQ back down to 4575 support.

-- Breaking above and staying above 4630 is an indication the current upswing on the daily chart is still in progress. If so, short-covering can easily push NQ back up towards resistances 4680 and then 4700.

NQ Guideline for Thursday

With most traders already out of the office for the Christmas and New year holidays the market traded sideways on Monday in a narrow trading range.

Unless some unexpected market-moving events or news hit the market on Thursday look for the narrow range sideways trading action to continue until the new year.

Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4600 - now acting as support.

-- Tradign above 4600 on Thursday implies neutral to bullish market bias.

-- Trading below 4600 could trigger some sell programs that can push price down to the next support at 4575.

NQ Guideline for Wednesday

Another up day for NQ on Tuesday, the second up day in a row. If the downtrend is still in progress NQ should trend down on Wednesday, with or without first going up.

Key price level to watch for will be Tuesday swing low.

-- Staying above Tuesday swing low would be bullish but key resistance remains at 4590-4600. 

-- A clear break below Tuesday low is likely to trigger renew selling and resumption of a downtrend.

The price of crude oil should remain key to trend direction.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday the market consolidated its two large down-days, traded sideways all day with a close near at the day high.

If the market is not in free-fall we should get another up-day on Tuesday before resuming its downtrend on Wednesday. Failure to get a rally day on Tuesday is an indication the market is going to tank hard.

Key price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4550.

-- Trading above 4550 is bullish for Tuesday. If so, the next upside target is the resistance zone around 4590-4600.

-- Trading below 4550 is bearish, but NQ would need to clearly break below 4400 to trigger another round of liquidation decline.

TED Spread (bank counter-party risk) surges to 4-year high

NQ Guideline For Monday

For NQ, Friday was the second large down-days, with the low of the day not too far above its crucial 200 day moving average, a critical price zone for many funds and algos. A clear and sustained break is likely to trigger longer-term algo sell programs that based their trigger level on the daily chart.

A break is likely to cause a large trending down day for NQ. With both the S&P 500 and the Dow broken below their respective 200-dma, the chances NQ should break its 200-dma is very high. If so, supports  are 4300 then 4200.  

On the smaller time-frame, key price level for NQ on Monday will be 4500 support and 4550 resistance. A clear and sustained break above resistance or below support could trigger a fast move.

-- Trading above 4550 could trigger fast short-covering rally to the next resistance zone 4590-4600

-- trading below 4500 could trigger more also sell programs, likely downside target is below December 14 swing low.

NQ Guideline For Friday

Massive buy programs going into the FOMC decision and after the FOMC decision was announced failed to trigger multi-days rally as the market was sold off on Thursday.Unless massive buy programs hit the market on Friday the sell-off should continue on Friday.

For NQ key price level to watch for will be 4570 and the price of crude oil.
-- A clear break below 4570, along with a selloff in crude oil, is likely to trigger massive sell programs that should tank NQ down to 4500.
-- Staying above 4570 should keep sellers in check, if crude oil rally look for NQ to rally as well.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

To be expected on Wednesday, a rate increase by the Fed that was followed by massive buy programs by the fed to make sure that their decision seems bullish for the market. 

The Fed buy programs should continue for a while longer to ensure that majority is convinced the raising interest rate is a good thing. Whether or not their trick will succeed only time will tell, but credit contraction is intensifying and should continue to intensify going forward and may overwhelm the Fed.

With that in mind key price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4630.

-- If the uptrend is still alive then any pullback should not clearly below 4630. If so, the uptrend should continue.

-- A break below 4630 is bearish and implies Wednesday rally is short-lived. First support is 4600, then 4580.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

NQ opened with a gap-up on Tuesday and then traded sideways all day. With a very manipulated market, anything is possible, looks for the Fed to continue to buy the market going into and after the release of the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday.

Key price level for NQ on Wednesday will be 4580.

-- NQ should remain bullish above 4580.

-- Trading below 4580 is bearish.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

NQ traded down very hard in the morning on Monday, and every attempt to push the market up failed until after the European market has close. 

Then, non-stop buy programs managed to push the market all the way up to 4580 resistance near the close. With the Fed 2-days meeting scheduled to start on Tuesday look for the buy programs to continue going forward. Whether or not it would be sufficent to hold the market up would depends very much on the price of the Crude oil.

A rally in crude oil should help push the market up while a continual selloff in the crude oil could easily overrun the buy programs.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4550, bullish above, bearish below.

 

NQ Guideline For Monday

A large opening gap-down and trend down day for NQ on Friday. With the market now in oversold conditions on the daily chart, the market may consolidate and trade sideways or rally on Monday. However, failure to consolidate is an indication the market is in extreme selling momentum mode.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Monday will be 4550.

-- Trading above 4550 is bullish, first resistance is 4580 then 4600.

-- Trading below 4550 is bearish but it needs to trade below 4530 to trigger another rounds of intense algo selling, with next support at 4500.

Price of crude oil will remains key to market direction.

NQ Guideline For Friday

NQ consolidated sideways on Thursday remaining inside prior day trading range. With the the daily chart in a bearish mode NQ would need to clearly break and stay above 4670 to change the bias to from bearish to bullish.

Key price level for NQ on Friday will again be 4630.

-- Bearish below but it needs to break below 4600 to trigger selling algos and tank the market down. Staying above 4600 implies another sideways consolidation type of day

-- NQ will be in a  neutral mode above 4630, but a break above 4670 is likely to trigger short-covering rally.

The price of crude oil price remains a major influence on the equity market.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

NQ traded in tandem with the crude oil market on Wednesday, sold-off hard in the morning and then traded sideways in the afternoon. The correlation between the crude oil market and the stock market should continue. 

Key inflection price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4630.

-- If NQ can stay above 4630, short-covering rally could push price back up to the next resistance level 4670 provided the crude oil market is not in a sell-off mode.

-- Trading below 4630 is bearish, however, it would need to break below 4600 to trigger another rounds of selling, with the next potential support at 4550.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

With the crude oil price set to tank hard on Tuesday which would have taken the equity market down with it, panic Fed may have gone crazy with buy programs, buying the crude oil market and the equity market in its attempt to prevent a total market crash ahead of next week FOMC meeting.

 

Their efforts might have temporarily stopped the crash in its track, but longer-term, unless the crude oil market can stabilize and rally back up into the $40 - $50 range, the wall street banks are going to collapse, taking the economy and the stock market with it.

For Wednesday, unless NQ can break back below 4670 along with crashing crude oil price, look for NQ to trade sideways or rally if NQ can break and stay above 4700.

Key support remains at 4670, and key resistance remains at 4700.

NQ Guidelien For Tuesday

NQ sold off hard in the morning but stayed above key support level 4670, then traded sideways the rest of the day, setting up a rally day for Tuesday. To do so, NQ has to stay above 4670 and break above 4700.

Falling crude oil price is negative for the stock market. With the price of crude oil breaking below key support of $40 per barrel on Monday, on its way down to $30, the stage is set for the stock market to collapse, but the timing of the collapse is more difficult to predict simply because the market is heavily manipulated by the central banks.

Again key price level for NQ on Tuesday is 4670. Remaining above 4670 implies either a sideways to bullish market.

NQ Guideline For Monday

With most traders and investors betting against the Euro, short-euro and Euro denominated assets and long-US$ and dollar denominated assets going into the ECB policy decision announcement last Thursday, betting that the ECB will increase their QE monthly amount because the ECB Draghi has been saying so, were disappointed and crushed when Draghi failed to live up to his promise.

Euro rallied and dollar tank crushing a lot of people's bank account, triggering global market selloff. The Fed and the ECB partially rescued them on Friday with their massive and relentless buy programs that lasted the whole Friday. Whether or not that was enough to get the bull market going again we just have to wait and see going forward. But unless they can stop the trend reversal in the US$ and Euro, the stage is set for a major unwinding of the Euro/Dollar carry trade that will crush the markets.

Key price level for NQ on Monday will be 4660.

-- Bullish above

-- Bearish below

Very important market to watch will be the crude oil market with $40 price level as key price level to watch for. Trading below $40 per barrel will be bearish for the stock market

NQ Guideline For Friday

A massive selloff day in the equity market on Thursday following a disappointing decision by the ECB. The market participants has factored in a massive increase in the QE amount but the ECB did not deliver.

 

Unless the ECB would change soon, the selloff should continue, and can get out of hand very quickly as most traders and investors are long and highly leveraged.

Key inflection price level for Friday will be 4630.

-- Trading above 4630 could trigger short-covering, with resistances coming in at 4660 then 4680

-- Trading below 4630 is bearish, but only a clear and sustained break below 4580 could trigger another round of liquidation decline. Staying above 4580 implies a sideways choppy trading session.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

The equity market sold off hard in the afternoon on Wednesday after the Fed Janet Yellin spoke to the media and also ahead of the ECB policy decision announcement on Thursday.

NQ rallied a bit into the close on profit-taking. If it is just profit-taking the decline should resumes on Thursday and break key support price level of 4680, lwer supports are 4655 then 4600.

Should NQ be able to rally and stay above 4700 look for NQ to rally back up to retest the recent high, but first resistance above 4700 is 4725.

NQ Guideline for Wednesday

After a choppy morning session NQ rallied in the afternoon and closed at the high of the day. With the European Central Bank expected to announce more QE on Thursday, the market should continue to rally as central banks continue to buy equities.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Wednesday will be 4700.

-- NQ uptrend continues as long as it stays above 4700.

-- Trading below 4700 implies NQ is going into a pullback down mode with key support at 4685, and as long as 4685 is not clearly violated on any decline look for NQ to rally back up after pullback ends.