NQ Guideline For Friday

A sharp sell-off in the crude oil market which triggered a sharp a sharp sell-off in the equity market threatening to crash through support which would have cause a crash attracted massive Fed buy programs designed to panic short-sellers into covering. The buy programs lasted all day.

NQ dropped down to 2100 key support, the 4th test of support on the daily chart, before reversing back up, breaking above 4160 key resistance, now key support for Friday.

The next resistance for NQ is 4200. Whether or not it needs a pullback to 4160 before breaking above 4200 we just have to wait for the open, but as logn as any pullback-down does not clearly violates 4160 support NQ shoudl continue to rally, next resistance above 4200 is 4250.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

The 4 key phrases from today's FOMC Statement on Wednesday were:

• "Strong Jobs Gains" instead of "Solid Job Gains",
• "Considerable time" sentence dropped entirely
• "Solid Pace" instead of "Moderate Pace" For Economy
• Add "Inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term" as new language

A hawkish policy statement, sent stocks, crude, and bond yields down on the news.
 
Unless the Fed somehow would come out with new statements that would nullify or contradict the above, or the Fed would come out with unlimited buy programs, which we cannot rule out, the sell-offf may have just begun. We shall see in the next few day if Wednesday's sell-off can get confirmation.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4160.
-- Bearish below 4160, next supports are 4100 and then 4080. A clear and sustained break below 4080 could tank NQ quickly down to 4000.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

A wild swings in the market on Tuesday, a big opening gap-down and run-down followed by a wide-range sideways consolidation.It is the nature of a very manipulated market.

The FOMC will announce their policy decision in the afternoon on Wednesday. NQ has already rallied sharply in after hours trading, and if it stays at the same level at the open on Wednesday, it will be a very large opening gap-up.

 

Key inflection price level for NQ on Wednesday is 4200.

-- Bullish above 4200, with resistances at 4250, 4280, 4300, 4320, 4340

-- Bearish below 4200, supports are 4160 and 4080

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

NQ traded sideways on Monday ahead of the FOMC 2-day meeting (Tuesday and Wednesday). Whether the market can trend before the Wednesday's FOMC policy decision announcement, only time will tell, but under normal condition, the stock market usually trade sideways, but today's market is far from normal, today's market is highly manipulated, so anything can happen.

Key price inflection level on Tuesday will be 4260.

-- Bullish bias above, and the first resistance and also key resistance is 4280. Without any strong bullish market internals 4280 could serve as a strong resistance level. Only a sustained break above 4280 could trigger some short-covering rally, next resistance is 4300.

-- Bearish below 4260, next support is 4245. If that does not hold, the lower support is 4220.

NQ Guideline For Monday

After three consecutive days of strong rally, NQ traded sideways on Friday, a consolidation day, setting up another trending up day on Monday or setting up a larger pullback decline on Monday. It will depends very much on the price of the crude oil and where it trades in relation to its technical support/resistance levels.

A sell-off in the price of crude oil below $45 is very bearish for the equity market and has the potential of triggering a sell-off in the equity market than can break through supports. 

Staying above $45 has a stabilizing effect on the equity market. If so, we can see another leg up in NQ, perhaps after a sharp morning decline.

Key support for NQ on Monday will be 4235-4245

-- Staying above 4235-4245 is an indication that the current fast uptrend is still in progress and the next resistance is 4325 and then 4350.

-- Breaking below 4235 implies NQ is going into a larger pullback-down mode, with the next support at 4220 and then 4200

NQ Guideline For friday

Following a bigger than expected QE amount announcement by the ECB on Thursday, the stock market opened with a large gap-up, but was immediately followed by a sharp sell-off for the stock market soon after the open, down to key support 4160 for NQ. 

Central banks came into the market with massive buy programs that lasted all day and sent NQ up over 100 points from the early morning low.

The next resistance for NQ is 4280. Failure to get a sustained break above 4280 could result in a pullback-down movement for NQ, with supports at 4235 and 4220.

As long as any NQ decline can stay above 4220 the uptrend should continue, next resistance is 4280.

Breaking below 4220 is an indication NQ is going into a larger pullback mode.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

After opening with a gap-down on Wednesday, massive algo buy programs likely triggered by central banks the Fed, rocketed NQ back up above 4160 key inflection price level, all the way to 4200 resistance before pulling back down to re-test broken resistance 4160 area.

NQ then rallied back up closing not far from the day high, setting up a bullish configuration for Thursday. However, decision by the ECB regarding their QE program can quickly and completely change the dynamics.

Key price level for Thursday will again be 4160. ECB decision on their QE will be one of the major factor influencing trend direction on Thursday.

-- Key resistance is 4100, a clear and sustained break above 4200 target next resistance 4280

-- Key support is 4160, lower supports are 4120 and then 4100

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

After a sharp morning decline NQ rallied the rest of the day on Tuesday closing near the day high. NQ has now broken above key inflection price level of 4160 on the 60-minute chart. 

As long as it can stay above 4160 on Wednesday, short-covering rally should continue, next resistance is 4200 and then 4220.

Breaking back below 4160 could attract sellers that can take NQ back down to 4100 support. Key market to watch for on Wednesday is the crude oil market.

Market is waiting for the ECB decision on their QE to be announced on Thursday. The question is, will there be real action on QE or will it be just talk from Mario Draghi,  the market is waiting.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Friday, a pause in the collapse of crude oil price helped buoyed the stock market, and although NQ triple-bottom on the daily chart was briefly breached, it did not attract any follow-through sell-off as the price of crude oil stabilized. If fact, NQ rallied back up after a brief early morning breach..

Going forward, as long as crude oil continues to consolidate the stock market should continue to rally, but as soon as the sell-off in crude oil resumes, the stock market sell-off should resume as well.

Another key event to watch for this week is the much anticipated ECB QE announcement. A no-QE announcement could trigger massive sell-off in the stock market. A QE of 500b euro has been factored into the stock market price. Anything less than the 500b could also trigger global stock market sell-off.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4160.

-- A sustained break above 4160 has the potential to trigger short-covering rally

-- Failure to break above 4160 implies a sideways consolidation or a sell-off. Supports are 4100 and 4080.

Stock, Crude Oil, Copper

With Oil and Copper in crash mode now, an indication of deflationary collapse, the world stock market is set up to do likewise very soon. If ever there was a time for bear ETFs and Put options, this must be it

The Oil and Copper crash has started, rosy looking COTs or not. They should now continue to plunge as deflationary fears intensify, then it's battle stations for the Fed and other world Central Banks, resulting in – you guessed it – the birth of QE4.

The next short-term downside target for Crude Oil is $35, and for copper it is near the 2008 lows at $1.25. Fair market value for crude oil is $20 per barrel but overshooting to the downside can take oil price down to the $10 zone.

World stock markets should crash imminently. If so, go to cash or better still bear ETFs and Put Options. On the announcement of QE4 we should see a violent reversal to the upside, that will be when we exit our short and go long.

What is likely to happen, after the market has been dropping a lot, and for a while, lasting  anywhere between 4 to 6 months, is that the Fed comes riding to the rescue as the valiant white knight with QE4. Watch out for that as it will be the signal to reverse position to long again.

The next stock market rally will be the last leg of this current bull market, and it could rally very fast.

NQ Guideline For Friday

Will Friday be a "Black Friday" when the stock market "Crash"?, or will it be a sideways consolidation day?, or a short-covering rally day? For the answer, we will just have to wait and see, it will depends very much on what happen in the crude oil market. 

A sell-off in the crude oil market has a severe contractionary effect on the overall credit, thus has the potential to drag the stock market down with it. All major indices are at key support zone, a clear break below support could trigger algorithm sell programs designed to run-over trailing stop-losses, with the decline that can get out of control, essentially a "Crash".

On Thursday, NQ traded down to triple bottom support (4080) on the daily chart, support held. On Friday, a clear break below 4080 could trigger a major selloff, without a break we could see either a sideways consolidation or a short-covering rally day.

A clear break below 4080 triple-bottom support could trigger massive algo sell programs that has the potential to quickly crash NQ down, supports are 4040, 4000, 3940.

Resistances above 4080 are 4120 and then 4160

NQ Guideline For Thursday

A sideways wide-range consolidation day for NQ on Wednesday, rallied in the morning then dropped down to 4100 support before rallying back up - and closed near the day high just below key resistance. The stock market rally was definitely helped by a large rally in the crude oil market. 

Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4160 area. Crude oil price will continue to be key driver of equity market price direction.

-- NQ needs to clearly break above 4160 to trigger another round of short-covering. Whether or not the Fed will engineer buy programs overnight tonight to cause a huge gap-up open in the morning on Thursday, only time will tell, and we shall see just before the open, resistances above 4160 are 4180, 4200, 4220..

-- Bearish below 4160. If accompanied by collapsing crude oil price, could lead to a break down below 4100 and 4080 supports.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

In their attempt to negate the negative effect of collapsing crude oil price on Monday night, the Fed engineered massive buy programs on Monday night that continued into Tuesday morning designed to trigger a massive short-covering rally as soon as the market opened, which it did.

But after the buy programs ended, reality kicked in, as the stock market collapsed under the weight of collapsing crude oil price. NQ managed to rally into the close, closing at key price inflection level for Wednesday.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Wednesday will be 4160, with crude oil price as the main driver of stock market prices.

--  Above 4160 is an indication NQ is likely going up, as long as crude oil price is not in a sell-off mode. Next resistance is4200.

-- Below 4160 is bearish with the next support at 4080. Breaking below 4080 and if accompanied by a sell-off in he crude oil market, NQ could quickly tanked down to 4000.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday, a resumption of the decline in the price of crude oil dragged down the stock market, with NQ closing near its day low. A continual decline in the price of crude oil on Tuesday should continue to drag down the stock market.

A breakdown below double-bottom low in NQ, around 4080 area, is likely to trigger massive algorithm sell programs that could quickly crash NQ down to 4000 or lower, very quickly - a CRASH

Key support level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4155

-- Above 4155 NQ should either consolidate sideways or rally, but NQ needs to break above 4200 and a rally in the price of crude oil to trigger any kind of short-covering rally.

-- Breaking below 4155 if confirmed by a selloff in the price of crude oil is very bearish, next support is 4080, then 4000

NQ Guideline For Monday

On the daily chart, NQ is still inside its consolidation zone between 4100 support and 4325 resistance. On Friday NQ traded sideways, a setup for the next leg up or for the next leg down, depending on where it trades in relation to its key price inflection level.

For Monday key price inflection level will be 4200.

-- Bullish above 4200, resistance is 4275.

-- Bearish below 4200, first support is 4160, then 4100

NQ Guileline For Friday

A huge opening gap-up on Thursday following one of the Fed governors comment that there will be no interest rate increase anytime soon triggered massive short-covering rally right at the open that lasted all day into the close. The rally was definitely helped by consolidating crude oil prices.

For Friday, as long as crude oil prices continue to consolidate, the stock market should either continue to rally with the help of the Fed buy programs or consolidates sideways, and as long as any decline does not violate key support level the uptrend should resume.

Key support level for NQ on Friday will be 4200.

-- As long as NQ can stay above 4200 the uptrend should continue. Next resistance is 4280.

-- Breaking below 4200 could trigger algo sell programs that could lead to liquidation decline, especially if accompanied by selloff in the crude oil market.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

NQ rallied in the morning on Wednesday and then consolidated sideways in the afternoon, setting up either another upleg on Thursday or a decline to re-test the recent low, which is Tuesday's swing low.

Key market to watch for on Thursday is the crude oil market. A selloff in the crude oil market on Thursday could set up another selloff in the equity market, and a rally or a consolidation in the crude oil market could set up another rally day for the equity market.

Key price level for NQ on Thursday will be 4145.

-- Bullish bias above 4145, resistances are 4165, then 4200-4220

-- Bearish below 4145, if accompanied by a selloff in the crude oil market, implies another liquidation day.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday, after trading sideways soon after the open, NQ broke down below 4145 support, and triggered massive algo sell programs that tanked NQ all the way down to double-bottom support (mid-December 2014  low of 4083) before bounding back up to re-test 4145 broken support now resistance.

After testing resistance, NQ promptly dropped back down to re-test the day low. Whether or not the double-bottom will hold on Wednesday only time will tell, but it would depends very much on how crude oil trades on Wednesday. A continual sell-off in crude oil is bearish for the market, and could lead to another sell-off day, while a pause in crude oil decline could lead to a pause in the equity sell-off.

Key price level for NQ on Wednesday will be 4083 double-bottom zone.

-- More selling below 4093 area, supports are 4050 and 4000.

-- A sideways consolidation above 4083, resistance is 4145, 4165.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

NQ opened and promptly sold off hard on Monday, resulting in another large down day in the market. With strong support not until 4100 there are still rooms for NQ to drop further down, whether or not it will happen on Tuesday only time will tell, but crude oil price will have a big influence on market direction.

Key price level to watch for on Tuesday is 4145

-- Staying above 4145 is an indication NQ is either going to trade sideways or rally.

-- Breaking below 4145 is likely to trigger another round of algo sell programs, next major support is 4100 area.

NQ Guideline For Monday

With most traders back at the office on Monday we should be able to see a return to normal trading activities. The battle between the Central Banks buying trying to support a fast collapsing global credit which is threatening to collapse the markets including the stock market, should continue to dominate.

Key price levels for NQ on Monday  is 4200 support.

-- Above 4200 is an indication last week sell-off has paused, and that NQ either trade sideways or rally, resistance is 4250.

-- Below 4200, look for NQ to continue to liquidate, next major support is 4100.

NQ Guideline For Friday

With most traders still not back at the office on Friday anything is possible, but a large sell-off on Wednesday pushed NQ into an oversold condition on the 60-minute chart, setting up a potential oversold bounce. Whether or not that oversold bounce will trigger a resumption of the current daily uptrend, or just a counter-trend a bounce prior to resuming another decline, only time will tell.

Key price level to watch for on Friday is 4255.

-- Above 4255 is an indication that Wednesday's sell-off has ended, look for more rally, next upside resistance is 4275.

-- Below 4255 implies the sell-off is likely to resume.

Although it may be too early to take up major positions in the market for a "crash", the stress in the financial system is currently similar to that prior to 1987 stock market crash and the 2007 market top.