"Panic Selling" Saudi Stocks Crash Into Bear Market Following OPEC Decision

It's not just Shale oil stocks in the US that are hurting. Following the OPEC decision to not cut production and squeeze US producers, Saudi Arabia's major stock market index has tumbled into a bear market territory, giving up all the year's gains. 

As one analyst noted, "investors are afraid if oil stays where it is, it will negatively impact the government revenues, thus creating potential headwinds on government spending." 

 

NQ Guideline For Monday

After a brief rally in the morning on Friday NQ sold-off into the early close as trader took profit ahead of the weekend.

Although the market is in extreme overbought territory on the daily chart and vulnerable to a fast sell-off, as logn as it does not break key support, the uptrend should continue.

Key price inflection level for NQ on Monday is 4340, key support for NQ on Monday is 4320.

-- Above 4340 is an indication NQ is going to higher high before pulling back.

-- Below 4340 implies NQ is in a pullback mode, first support is 4320. As long as 4320 is not clearly violated it shoudl resume its uptrend.

-- A clear break below 4320 is likely to trigger algo sell programs that can tank NQ quickly down to the next support level of 4300

As global recession intensify, and OPEC not willing to cut its crude oil production in response to declining global demand, look for crude oil price to tank down to $30 - $40 very quickly, resulting in accelerating global credit contraction, and also look for prices of gold and other metals and commodities to tank as well. 

Global stock market collapse (crash) is not far away.

NQ Guideline For Friday

With most traders and investors away from their trading desk for the Thanksgiving holidays and as the only major trader in the market is the Fed algo buying machine, unless the impact of the OPEC decision is negatively overwhelming, the uptrend should continue.

The market is currently in deep overbought conditions and could be vulnerable to unexpected sharp sell-off. However, until we see some evidence of a sell-off, look to stay on the buy side.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday, NQ opened and railed briefly above 4300 resistance before pulling back down below it and then traded sideways the rest of the day.

With most traders out of the office for the Thanksgiving holidays Wednesday;s trading could be a repeat of Tuesday's price action, a flurries of activities in the morning followed by sideways choppy action most of the day.

Key price level for NQ on Wednesday is 4280.

-- Bullish above 4280, next upside target is a break above Tuesday's swing high.

-- There could be a flurry of selling activities below 4280 with the next support at 4260.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday, NQ opened with a gap-up, then immediately rallied above key price level 4265 triggering whatever shorts there was to cover, which is not many, but relentless buying by the Fed High Frequency Trading Machine managed to slowly but steadily push NQ into another higher-high, in the process nullifying last Friday's reversal day.

Without any major sell-off, the Fed is going to continue to push the equity market up, including NQ into the Thanksgiving holidays.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday will be 4277, Key Support is 4260

-- Above 4277 is an indication NQ is still in an uptrend before pulling back down, next target is 4300.

-- Trading below 4277 implies NQ is going into a pullback-down mode, with key support at 4260. As long as 4260 is not clearly violated on a pullback-down move, uptrend should continue. Although not expected, a clear break below 4260 could trigger algo sell programs, lower supports are 4250 and then then 4235.

NQ Guideline for Monday

Relentless buying by the Fed on Thursday night designed to cause a huge gap-up opening on Friday that would trigger a short-covering rally, failed miserably on Friday, as the market opened and sold-off hard, resulted in a reversal day, without additional buying binge by the Fed on Monday, we could see another strong sell-off day on Monday.

Key price level to watch for on Monday is going to be 4245 for NQ.

-- A sustained break below 4245 could trigger another round of selling algos, supports are 4225 then 4195-4205

-- Trading above 4245 is bullish but NQ needs to break above 4265 to potentially trigger algo buy programs.

NQ Guideline For Friday

On Wednesday, with a bearish mood going into the open, and not willing to let the rally failed heading into next week Thanksgiving holiday, the Fed was ready with their buy programs, in the amount whatever it takes, to push the market up.

NQ opened just above its prior day low, and then after dropping down to support just below prior day low, the Fed buy programs kicked in, designed to panic the short-sellers, which it did, rocketing NQ up through several resistances before stopping just shy of making a new higher high. 

It then traded sideways the rest of the day, setting up a likely break above the high on Friday. Whether or not a break above the high would cause a trending up day on Friday only time will tell, but Friday tends to be choppy sideways type of day because traders, as always, clear their trading books going into the weekend.

Key price level for NQ on Friday will be the recent high 4248 area.

-- IF NQ can break and stay above 4248 area on Friday it could cause a flurry of short-covering as stoploss gets hit. Whether or not it could attract real buying activities after the flurries is over, it is difficult to predict, only time will tell, but there is really not many buyers at this price level except the Fed.

-- On the other hand, breaking below 4235 could trigger some allgo sell programs that could take NQ price down to the next support level 4225. It would need to clearly break below 4225 to trigger major algo sell programs that has the potential to take NQ down to 4195-4200 support area.

GOLD Daily: After completing a clear 5-wave decline from it high in July 2014, gold has now ralled back up to prior low, now-resistance, and if it can stay above 1185 area, gold December contract may be able to break through its resistance, with its first target between .382 to .50 Fibonacci retracement level (1280 to 1245) before pulling back down.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

On Wednesday with NQ opening below key inflection price level, the first morning trend was down. However once the downtrend has ended, NQ rallied back up to FT Pivot before trading sideways into the close. 

With NQ closing right at key inflection price level for Thursday the stage is set for either a decline down to support or rally back up to resistance.

Key inflection price level for Thursday will be 4225.

-- Trading below 4225 is an indication NQ is going down to re-test Wednesday swing low or to a lower low below Wednesday swing low, supports are 4195-4200

-- Above 4225 implies NQ is resuming its uptrend, and likely going back up to above Tuesday's high.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday, NQ opened just above its balance point then rallied up to higher-high before pulling back down to re-test its breakout level before rallying back up again to another higher high, with a small profit-taking decline near the close.

On the 5-minute chart, NQ has rallied 5 waves up from its Monday's swing low into Tuesday swing high. At the end of the day on Tuesday NQ may have completed its 5-wave rallied, and if so, it should now retraced a certain percentage of the entire 5-wave rally before heading back up again.

Key price level for NQ on Wednesday is going to be 4240.

-- Trading below 4240 on Wednesday morning is an indication the 5-wave rally has ended and that it is going into a retracement mode likely in the form of an ABC wave pattern down. First support is 4225. If 4225 holds, NQ should continue to rally to another higher-high. Clearly breaking below 4225 could take NQ price down to 4195-4200 support.

--  Staying above 4240 implies the current 5-minute uptrend is still in progress, next target is another higher high, likely to 4275.

Guideline For Tuesday

On Monday, after trending/dropping down to support in the morning, NQ rallied back up to balance price level 4210 and then spent the rest of the afternoon trading around balance price level, unable to move away from it, then close just above 4210.

NQ daily chart is still in an uptrend but the 60-minute chart is showing a possible pullback down move, so NQ could go either way on Tuesday, depending on where it trades in relation to its balance price level.

Key balance price level / inflection price level for Tuesday will still be 4210.

-- Trading above 4210 is an indication that NQ may want to rally up to resistance, 4227

-- NQ will have a bearish bias below 4210, first support is 4195, strong support is 4175

NQ Guideline For Monday

A choppy sideways consolidation type of day for NQ on Friday, with a slight bullish bias, but remained inside Thursday's trading range, setting up a bigger move, either up or down..

 Key support price level for NQ on Monday is 4210.

-- Bullish above 4210, the next target is a break above Thursday swing high, likely to 4240-4250 depending on how bullish the market will be.

-- Below 4210 is an indication that NQ is going into a bigger pullback-down mode with support at 4195-4200. If that support zones does not hold, the next support is 4175, a strong support. It would need a very bearish market internals to clearly break the 4175 support area.

NQ Guideline For Friday

On Thursday NQ opened above 4200 resistance triggering some short-covering rally that lasted several for hours. However, without sufficient new buyers to keep the uptrend going, profit-taking quickly set in tanking NQ back down to retest 4200 now support before bouncing back up to retrace .786 of the drop, setting up a C-wave decline back down to below early morning low, ABC 1:1 down move.

At the completion of the C-wave down, NQ then spent the rest of the afternoon rallying in a choppy manner back up to retraced .618 of the entire ABC decline, setting up either a continual rally on Friday, to higher high above Thursday swing high, or dropping back down for a larger C-wave.

Where it trades on Friday morning would determine which direction NQ is going to trade, i.e. up to higher high above Thursday's swing high or down to lower-low below Thursday swing low.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Friday is 4210

-- Above 4210 is an indication that NQ is likely to trend back up again, next upside target is a break above Thursday's swing high.

-- Trading below 4210 implies NQ is either re-testing Thirsday swing low, or going down to a lower low below Thursday's swing low for a larger C-wave down to 4175-80 support area.

NQ Guideline For Thursday

Another slow up-trending day again on Wednesday. As long as pullback-down does not clearly violate key support level, the uptrend should continue to higher-high. 

However, NQ is now approaching whole number resistance at 4200 where traders may take profit, which has the potential of causing a larger pullback down move.

Key support for NQ on Thursday is 4180.

-- Above 4180 NQ is likely going to make another highe-high above Wednesday's swing high, with the next resistance at 4200.

-- A clear break below 4180 is an indication NQ is going into a larger pullback down move, support are at 4160, 4135.

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

Another choppy narrow range up-trending day again on Tuesday. Without any larger pullback the uptrend is going to be slow, narrow-range and choppy, unless of course the Fed can come in with large buy programs. With most short-sellers on the sideline there are not many shorts to cover that could help push the market higher in a hurry.

Key support for NQ on Wednesday is 4170.

-- Uptrend should continue if NQ can stay above 4170.

-- Clearly breaking below 4170 is an indication NQ is going into a larger pullback-down mode. If so supports are 4160, 4135.

NQ Guideline For Tuesday

Another very choppy narrow-range up-day for NQ on Monday. The pattern should continue unless the Fed can come in with large buy programs and triggers more short-covering rally.

Key price support level for NQ on Tuesday is 4160.

-- More rally above 4160, next target is another higher-high above Monday swing high.

-- Possible larger pullback below 4160. If so, the next support is 4135. As long as there is no major unexpected market-moving news, 4135 support should hold.

Guideline For Monday

Friday was another choppy sideways consolidation day, the sixth in a row. Without any new buyers the market is going to continue to trade sideways, and as long as NQ stays above 4100, sellers are going to be on the sideline, so it is up to the Fed to buy the market and push the market up.

Key inflection price level for Monday is 4155, resistance is 4175, support is 4120. Key support is 4100.

Guideline For Friday

Another sideways consolidation day on Thursday, the 5th day in a row, and remained above support. NQ rallied in the afternoon into the close, likely ready to rally back up above prior swing high established on Monday.

If so, and whether or not a breakout above Monday's swing high would lead to a trending-up move, only time will tell, as the market is highly manipulated, and anything is possible.

A breakout above has the potential of triggering a trending move up, next upside target is 4200. 

A breakout that does not hold implies a reversal back down to 4150 - 4160 area.

Key price inflection level on Friday remains at 4150, and it is currently a support price level for NQ as it closed above 4150 on Thursday.

Guideline for Thursday

On Wednesday, NQ opened with a gap-up above the high, Monday's swing high, then immediately sold off, dropping down to support before consolidating sideways into the close.

The market looks tired and seems ready to sell-off for a few days or longer, but as long as 4100 support holds, the uptrend should continue.However, breaking down below 4100 is likely to trigger massive algo sell programs, next strong support is 4000.

Key price level for NQ on Thursday is 4150.

-- Bullish above 4150, next target is a break abve Wednesday swing high.

-- Bearish below 4150, but the next support is at 4100. Only a clear and sustained break 4100 could lead to a trend reversal from up to down on the daily chart, next support is 4050, then 4000.

Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday, NQ opened with a gap-down to support and then rallied back up to close the gap before reversing back down, breaking below key support. After finding support at just above prior swing high, NQ spent the rest of the day rallying back up, closing in the middle of the trading range. 

With the mid-term election over, the market can now make another trending move, with the Republican party winning both the house and the senate, the direction is likely to the upside, but, as always, anything could happen, so be ready for a trending move up or down.

Key price inflection level for NQ on Wednesday is 4150.

-- Trading above 4150 is likely to trigger algo buy programs. If so, next upside target is a break above Monday's swing high to 4200.

-- Bearish below 4150 but support remains at 4120 and 4100. 

Guideline for Tuesday

NQ traded sideways in a very narrow trading on Monday, a consolidation day following a large gap-up day. Once it ends NQ should rally back up again, as long as key support hold on any potential further pullback-down move.

Key inflection price level for NQ on Tuesday is 4163.

-- Above 4163 is an indication uptrend has resume, target is higher-high above Monday swing high, upside target is still 4200.

-- NQ is still in a pullback mode below 4163, key support is 4135. Should 4135 support is clearly broken, it is likely to trigger algo sell programs that could take NQ down to 4115 or 4100 support.

Guideline For Monday

On Friday last week, on the back of the Fed's back-door QE via the Bank of Japan QE and massive overnight buying binge by the Fed algo buyers, the stock market was pushed up substantially higher by the opening bell while precious metals such as gold and silver were whacked really hard, just to paint a healthy economic outlook post QE.

With the US mid-term election this coming week it is a certainty that the Fed would continue to push the equity market up while whacking the precious metal market down, and they will come in to buy any attempted sell-off attempt by the short-sellers. As long as no major technical damage is inflicted by the sellers, look for the current uptrend to continue.

Key price inflection level for NQ on Monday will be 4145, key support is 4135, strong support at 4100.

-- Above 4145 is an indication NQ is still in a fast mode up, next target will be 4200, whether it will get there in one day or two only time will tell.

-- Trading below 4135 could trigger algo sell programs, but strong support resides at 4100, and should hold. But as always, anything is possible, particularly with the extremely manipulated market conditions we are currently in.