Guideline For Friday

American's intense desire to trigger a major war with Russia in order to at least delay the inevitable collapse of the US dollar, is triggering a massive selloff in the Euro currency - rally in the US$ (US$ index has a 60% of its component in weight in the Euro Currency), simply because the Eurozone is very vulnerable to Russian retaliation be it economic sanction or military retailation, and sanctions or war with Russia will be very devastating economically to the European, hence very bearish for the global stock market in general.

With investors currently so highly leverage, a sustained selloff in the stock market could cause a massive stock market collapse (crash) that is even much bigger that the 2008 collapse, even the Federal reserve would not be able to control. It will be devastating, and selloff could be both in the stock amrket and the bond market simultaneously.

On Thursday, NQ clearly broke below key support  3920, whetner or not Friday will be a follow-through down day or a pullback up day on profit-taking, only time will tell and it would also depends on where it trades in relation ot key price level.

Key price leven for NQ on Friday is 3910.

-- Trading above 3910 could trigger short-covering rally as trailing stops get runover, resistance is at 3930 - 3950

-- Selling pressure to continue below 3910, next support is at 3860, 3830

 

Guideline For Thursday

NQ continued to chop inside a narrow trading range on Wednesday evern after the FOMC minutes was released. The market looks tired and may be ready for the long awaited summer selloff. 

Whether or not NQ would have to make a new higher high above 3990 swing high before the selloff, only time will tell, but key price level on the longerterm timeframe, key support is currently at 3920 area. A clear break below 3920 is the first confirmation that the selloff is in proigress.

For Thursday, key support is 3955, with resistance now at 3980.

-- As long as NQ can stay above 3955, it may continue to stairs step higher.

-- A clear break below 3955 ccoul start to trigger momentum algo sell programs, key support is at 3920.

Guideline For Wednesday

NQ tried to breakout above 3970 early in the mornng on Tuesday but failed, reversed back down below 3970 down to just below FT Pivot support. 

NQ traded sidewyas in a narrow trading range ahead of the FOMC policy decision announcement on Wednesday afternoon. NQ may continue to trade sideways on Wednesday until the FOMC policy announcement in the announcement.

Failure to rally substantially a day or two after the FOMC announcement is an indication summer pullback may already be in progress.

Key price level for NQ on Wednesday is 3970.

-- Bulish above 3970, targeting a new daily high

-- Bearish below 3970, supports are 3940, 3930, 3920

Guideline For Tuesday

NQ opened and dropped down to 3930 support in th morning on Monday before reversing and trend up all day all the way up to 3970 resistance before pulling back down into the close. 

Depending on where NQ trades in relation to 3970 key resistance in the morning, NQ either going to rally up to the next resistance 3990, then 4000, or reverse back down to 3934 or 3930 suport.

Price inflection level for NQ on Tuesday is 3960.

-- Bullish above 3960, but it needs to clearly break above 3970 to trigger momentum algo buy programs, upside target is 3990 - 4000.

-- Bearish below 3960, with support at 3940 then 3930.

A 2-day FOMC starts tomorrow on Tuesday, so be on guard for possible choppy non-trending range-bound market.

Guideline For Monday

NQ broke below 3960 support on Friday, after re-tstign broken support, it then trend down to the next support before rallying back up.

Price inflection level for Monday is 3955, with 3970 resistance and 3940 support.

-- Bearish below 3955 with support at 3940 then 3930

-- Bullish bias above 3955 with resistance at 3970 then 3990, and then 4000 which remains a key psychological resistance level.

Guideline For Friday

NQ opened with a gap-up on Thursday and then immediately pullback down before rallying back up to test the morning high. It traded sideways all day in a narrow trading range and into the close.

NQ traded down in after hours trading, just above 3960 support, and depending on where it opens in the morning, it is either another up day or a pullback down day.

-- On Friday, trading above 3960 implies NQ is likely to rally back up, target is still 4000-4025.

-- Breaking below 3960 is likely to trigger momentum algo that could quickly tank NQ down to 3940, and if that does not hold the next support is 3910-3915.

Guideline For Thursday

On Wednesday NQ opened with a gap-up and then after trending up for period of time, it then spent the rest of the day trading sideways in a narrow trading range. Wednesday's trading pattern was identical to Tuesday's pattern.

It is likely to continue with the next resistance at 4000 for NQ. It is a whole numebr resistance where some algo may be taking profit and reverse, which implies some sorts of a larger pullback down. My upside target remains at between 4025-4050 before we get large pullback, provided NQ can stay above key support which is 3920 for Thursday.

Support for Thursday is 3960.

Guideline For Wednesday

On Tuesday, NQ opened with a gap-up above prior swing high, but without many shorts left to cover, consolidated sideways above the high in a narrow trading range.

For Tuesday as long as it can stay above 3935-3940 NQ should continue to be bullish. The next target up is still 4000 for NQ.

Trading below 3935 could trigger algo sell programs that can quickly tank it down to 3910-3920.

Guideline For Tuesday

After opening with a gap-down and then quickly closed the gap, NQ pullback down to support on Monday morning before rallying back up to just below Friday swing high. It was a narrow-range sideways consolidation day.

Key inflection price level on NQ for Tuesday is 3923, support is at 3910 and resistance is 3940.

-- Above 3923 NQ is in a bullish mode with resistance at 3940. NQ needs to clearly break above 3940 to trigger a trending upday with the next larger degree target at 4000.

-- NQ is bearish below 3923 but price would need to break 3910 support to attract large momentun ago sell programs

Guideline For Monday

Nasdaq NQ opened with a gap-up, and after a period of choppy pullback it rallied to near prior high on July 16th.

NQ had a clear 5-wave rally from the end of day low on Thursday July 17th, so the rally may need to go into a larger pullback before rallying back up. Whether or not NQ would have to make a higher high above prior July 16th high before pulling back down only time will tell.

Key inflection price level for Monday is 3925.

-- Trading above 3925 is an indication NQ is going to make a higherh-high first before going into a larger pullback down.

-- Trading below 3925 implies a larger pullback is in progress, with key support at 3910-3915. If support hold, look for NQ to rally back up again. 

-- If 3910-3915 support does not reverse price back up, look for NQ to trigger momentum algo sell programs that can tank NQ quickly down to 3880 support, then to below Thursday swing low if 3880 does not hold..

Guidelien For Friday

On Thursday NQ opened with a gap-down below 3915 key inflection price zone. The gap-down opening triggered a combination of arbitrage buy programs and also algo buy programs, pushing price up to close the gap and a test of FT pivot (resistance) from below.

When NQ failed to rally above a convergence of resistance including gap-close, FT Pivot, 20-MA and 50-MA on the 5-minute chart, it attracted an overwhelming number of traders to sell aggressively, causing a cascade of momentum sell algos, tanking the market hard.

NQ finally fund  support around 3850-3860 support zone where the end of day profit-taking crowd cause a 20-point rally into the close.

The momentum going into the close was negative, setting up another large liquidation decline on Friday, unless NQ can get back above 3885 on Friday.

Below 3885 is an indication the decline is not over, the next support is 3800, strong support, but with the conflict in Ukraine continuing to intensify, support may not hold, so watch market internals for additional clues.

Guideline For Thursday

NQ opened with a gap-up above July 03 swing high but failed to trigger a short-covering rally. Instead NQ traded sideways above 3915 the whole day on Wednesday settign up a potential trending move up or down on Thursday, the direction will depends on where it trades in relation to key inflection price level at 3915.

If NQ re-break back below 3915 it could attract algos sell programs than has the potential to really tank the market hard, potential support are 3890 and 3850-3860. If the market internals get really berish, strong support lies at 3800.

Trading above 3915 implies more consolidation or a rally day, target is 2950-3960.

Guideline For Wednesday

NQ opened and sold off hard as soon as Janet Yellen started her testimony to the Senate banking committee. 

The Fed must have been caught unprepared with buy programs as NQ tanked hard, temporarily breaking below prior swing high support before the Fed buy programs were able to control the selloff and rallied the market back up.

NQ closed just below July 4th and 7th swing high, 3915-3918, which would serve as our key price zone for Wednesday.

-- NQ needs to breakback above 3915-3918 area to cause another round of short-covering / Fed buying rally.

-- Failure to clearly break above 3915-3918 would attract another round of algo selling that could drop NQ down to below Tuesday low and down to 3865 area support. 

Guideline For Tuesday

A gap-up and trend up morning for NQ on Monday, completing its 2nd upleg on the 60-minute chart, wave 3 or C up from July 10 swing low.

If Monday upleg is infact wave 3 up on the 60-minute chart, then wave 5 up should resume right away on Tuesday and should price stay above July 3rd swing high, around 3913 NQ.

Breaking back below July 3rd swing high on Tuesday is an indication NQ is going into a larger ABC pullback down mode. 

Breaking below Monday swing low could attract numerous momentum algo sell programs, targeting a fast liquidation drop down to the next support, a gap-close support created on Monday 3898, or down to prior swing high at 3890 now support.

Guideline For Monday

A slow rally on Friday up to 3900 resistance before stalling and traded sideways into the close. 

Key price support level to watch for on Monday is 3890 for NQ.

-- Staying above 3890 implies buy programs is going to continue in the morning.

-- Below 3890 is an indication NQ is going into a pullback mode, with key suppot at 3880. As long as 3880 support holds NQ rally should resume.

-- A clear break below 3880 could trigger algo sell programs that can tank NQ back down to Thursday's low.

Guideline For Friday

On Thursday NQ opened with a huge gap-down, right down to major support zone, a combination of prior swing high - turned support on the 60-minute chart and also on the daily chart, and the 20-moving average support on the daily chart.

NQ swiftly rallied all the way back up to a gap-close resistance before pulling back down to support, then rallied back up into the close.

On Friday key price level is 3875.

-- Bullish above 3875 with resistance at 3890.

-- Bearish below 3875 with support at 3865 and 3845.

The market needs to have extreme internals to break through support and resistance.

Guideline For Thursday

A choppy trading session for NQ on Wednesday with a close near the day high, and just above key inflection price level, setting up either another upday on Thursday or a resumption of the downtrend that started on Monday.

Key inflection price level for Wednesday is 3882.

-- Trading above 3882 is bullish, and could trigger more short-covering rally. If so, the next upside target is a break above Monday swing high.

-- Breaking back below 3882 is an indication the downtrend that started on Monday is resuming, next downside target is a break below Tuesday's swing low. 

A nice rally in the price of gold on Wednesday, but it is now in overbought territory on the daily chart, so unless some short-covering can commences, profit-taking can cause gold to pullback down. 

Guideline For Wednesday

NQ sold off hard soon after the open on Tuesday. A break below key upport triggered massive momentum algo sell programs, with NQ dropping more than 50 points before finding enough buyers to stall the decline. 

Tuesday was a second down day in a row. Whether or not we are going to see a 3rd down day on Wednesday will depend on whether or not NQ can rally back up above key resistance.

By the end of the day NQ looks set for wave C rally up to resistance, 3875 and 3885. 

Key resistance for NQ on Wednesday will be 3885.

-- A clear break above 3885 imples the pullback down has ended, and the uptrend is resuming. If so, the next upside target is a higher high above Thursday swing high.

-- Trading below Tuesday swing low is an indication NQ is still in a pullback down mode, next support is at 3830. Should 3830 breaks a strong support lies at 3800.

Guideline For Tuesday

NQ pullback down to support in the morning on Monday, then traded sideways just above support for the rest of the afternoon, a with small profit-taking rally at the close. 

Depending on where it trades on Tuesday, NQ either rally back up to higher-high or drop down for to the next support zone.

Key support for Tuesday remains at 3895 - 3900.

-- Trading above support is an indication NQ may want to rally to higher-high.

-- Trading below key support implies NQ is going for another leg down to the next support zone 3870-3875.

Guideline For Monday

The uptrend continued on Thursday ahead of the 4th of July long weekend holiday, with the close at the high of the day. As long as key support level continue to provide support on any pullback down the uptrend should continue.

Key support level for Monday in NQ is 3895-3900

For NQ (see daily chart below) it is currently still in wave iii of 5 up, but it may be ready for wave iv pullback down at anytime now. If so, it would need to break key support level, which on Monday is 3895-3900.

However, as long as 3895 price level is not clearly violated on any pullback down move, wave iii of 5 is still in progress.

A clear break below 3895 is an indication wave iv is in progress with downside target at 3870-3875 area. I am still looking for another higher high (wave v) after wave iv has ended. Only a clear break below 3870 would invalidate the above analysis.

Guideline For Thursday

With most traders out of the office for the 4th of July holiday the market remains in a very narrow-range choppy mode on Wednesday and the pattern should continue on Thursday as long as there is no unexpected market moving news.

Key support remains 3885 for NQ on Thursday.

-- Trading above 3885 implies sideways choppy pattern or uptrend.

-- Breaking below 3885 may trigger algo sell programs.

Guideline For Wednesday

Ahead of the long weekend the market tends to be bullish, so any pullback down is an opportunity to go long as long as it does not break key support.

Key inflection price level for Wednesday is 3885. Key support is 3850-3860 zone.

-- Trading below 3885 is an indication NQ may be going into a consolidation mode before resuming the uptrend. If so target down is 3850-3860.

-- Trading above 3885 implies the next upleg is in progress, next upside target is 3910.