Guideline For Friday

At the end of the day on Thursday all major equity futures including NQ, ES and YM were all sitting at key support area, either a break and trend down on Friday or rally back up again to re-test the recent high.

Because Friday is normally a bullish day, and as long as key support is not violated, I will be looking for either a sideways consolidation pattern for Friday or a rally back up to test the recent high.

Key support for NQ is 3365, and 1751 for ES and 15,490 for YM. 

-- A clear and sustained break below support can cause a liquidation drop, with NQ next support at 3350 and 3335.

-- Above 3365 NQ should rally up to resistance at 3385 then 3395.

Guideline For Thursday

On Wednesday the market sold off hard after the release of the FOMC minutes, but as usual the Fed came in very aggressively buying the futures market after the regular market is closed.

The sell-off may have been real, and that the market is going into a down-trending mode for a while starting Wednesday, with or without a test. Although it is still very early to make the call particularly in a very strong up-trending market, the sell-off looks real. 

Key price level to watch for going on Thursday and going forward is 3382.50 in NQ and 1760 in ES. 

-- Above 3382.50 implies NQ uptrend on the daily chart is still intact. If so, we look for NQ to make another higher high.

-- Below 3382.50 is  an indication that NQ is going into a pullback down mode on the daily chart. Next support is 3350, then 3320

Guideline For Tuesday - NQ

A narrow-range inside day for NQ on Monday. For Tuesday, as long as it can stay above support the uptrend should continue. 

For Tuesday morning NQ support will be at 3070.

Guideline For Monday - NQ

After making a new higher high above Tuesday's swing high NQ quickly reversed back down to the balance point. It then traded sideways into the close. 

Key inflection level for Monday is 3377 area.

-- Above 3377 is an indication NQ is continuing back up to make another higher-high above Friday's swing high.

-- Below 3377 implies there is another down leg following Friday's afternoon sideways action. If so support is again at 3350. 

Guideline For Friday

Nasdaq (NQ) rallied above key resistance 3350 during the morning run, and then stay above 3350all day setting up a rally to Tuesday's swing high.

Key price level is for Friday is now 3377.50.

-- More rally above 3377.50 should continue to trigger short-covering rally, with resistance at 3390-3400.

-- Below 3372.50 implies NQ is going into a pullback down mode, with support now at 3350.

Guideline For Thursday

For the second say in a row the market trend down in the morning and then spent the rest of the day trading sideways, forming another bear flag. If so, look for another downtrend on Thursday.

Key Price level For Thursday is 3335.

-- A clear break below 3335 implies the sideways pattern is a bear flag, with 3300 as the next downside target. 

-- Above 3335 is an indication NQ is still in consolidation mode, resistance is at 3350.

-- A clear break above 3350 negates bear flag pattern. If so, the upside target is Tuesday's swing high.

Guideline For Wednesday

After making a higher high in the morning and then tanked, NQ spent the rest of the day trading sideways, forming a bear flag. If so it should lead to another down-leg on Wednesday.

Key level to watch for on Wednesday is 3358.

-- Below 3358 is bearish, and an indication the bear flag is going to lead to another downleg, with the next support at 3335, then 3300.

-- Bullish above 3358, and implies a potential higher high is coming, with NQ resistance at 3390 - 3400.

Guideline For Tuesday

Monday was a consolidation day, with the market taking a breather, staying inside a narrow trading range following a large up-week last week. 

Both NQ and ES are now at resistance on the daily chart, and a larger pullback down is likely to come soon. However, because the current uptrend is still very strong, as long as support is not violated, a consolidation day is a setup for the next trending move once pullback ends.

Inflection price level for Tuesday is 3350, support is at 3335

-- Above 3350 implies the uptrend is still in progress, next upside target is higher-high above Monday's high.

-- Below 3350 is an indication that Monday's pullback is still in progress, support is 3335. a clear break below 3335 implies NQ is going into a large pullback down with the next target at 3280 area.

Monday Guideline - NQ

NQ is in a blow-off mode to the upside, with the shorts stampeding to get out their short position and those funds still on the sideline, worried to be left behind, were also stampeding to get into the equity market, resulting in a relentless up-trending market.

It should continue to go up for a while, with or without a pullback, before the momentum slows down. Where and when this buying frenzy will end is very difficult to say, but once everyone is on board, the market then collapses in a fast way.

For Monday as long as support holds, it should continue to go up and make a higher high.

Key inflection price level for Monday in NQ is 3335.

-- Above 3335 implies NQ is still in a fast mode up.

-- Below 3335 is an indication NQ is in a pullback down mode, with support at 3325 before going back up. A clear and sustained break below 3325 implies NQ is going into a larger down-move.

Currently the bulls are in firm control

Friday Guideline - NQ

The market continued to go higher on Thursday as the shorts continued to cover following the agreement on the debt ceiling issue. The shorts should continue to cover on Friday as the bulls are currently in charge, so NQ should continue to go higher, with or without a pullback, as long as it does not violate key level.

Key Level For NQ on Friday is 3290.

-- Above 3290 is an indication that the current uptrend is still in progress and the next target up is 3350.

-- Below 3290 implies NQ is in a pullback mode down, support at 3275

Guideline For Thursday

NQ rallied early in the morning in anticipation of the agreement on the debt ceiling deal, then spent the rest of the day consolidating sideways. Once consolidation / pullback ends, and as long as it did not violate key support, it should resume its uptrend.

Key inflection level for Thursday is 3265.

-- Above 3265 is an indication of strength, look for NQ to trend up to above Wednesday's swing high.

-- Below 3265 implies the pullback is still in progress, and the next support zone is 3250-3255. A clear break below 3250 implies NQ is going into a larger pullback down, next support is 3230.

Debt ceiling deal has been reach.

Guideline For Wednesday

On Wednesday, after making a higher high above Monday's swing NQ pullback down and consolidated for the rest of the day, setting up either a morning uptrend or a downtrend, depending on where it opens and trades in the morning in relation to it key inflection level.

Key inflection zone for Wednesday is 3247.

-- Above 3247 is an indication that NQ is going back up, resistance is now at 3270 area.

-- Bearish below 3247 with supports at 3200 and 3185

No agreement yet on the debt ceiling debacle

Tuesday Guideline

Another trending-up day on Monday with NQ making a higher high above prior swing high. For Tuesday it is likely that algo traders may want to gap the opening price up clearly above 3251 prior high to cause a short-covering spike, but anything can happen between tonight and the open.

Key price level to watch for on Tuesday is 3251 area.

-- Above 3251 can cause a short-covering spike or rally with the next resistance at 3260 area but it can easily break above that resistance if a break above 3251 can trigger short-covering rally.

-- Breaking back below 3251, which will become support in the event that price opens or breaks above 3251 in the morning, is bearish and cause cause a fast liquidation decline, with support at 3220 and 3200

With Obama determined to push the US into defaulting on the debt so he can destroy the republican party, we are not expecting any deal soon, but anything can happen, so always be on the lookout for the unexpected.

Gold - Head & Shoulder Pattern = Bearish

Gold is currently in a head & Shoulder pattern on the daily chart, and, as long as the pattern is intact, the downside target for gold is 1180 area.

The Head & Shoulder pattern will be negated on a sustained break above 1375 area.

Guideline For Monday - NQ

Last week's Wednesday's trend reversal, on the appointment of ultra-money printer Janet Yelling as the new Fed Chairman, continued into Friday.

It may be ready to go into a pullback-down mode on Monday, but where it opens will determine whether we will get the pullback in the morning or in the afternoon.

Key level For Monday = 3225

-- Above 3225 implies NQ is still going up before pulling back down. Next target up is a break above prior swing high 3250

-- Below 3225 is an indication NQ is going to a pullback-down move before going up again. Key support on any pullback is 3200

Traders will be watching October 17 debt default deadline.

.

Guideline For Friday

A large gap-up open on Thursday, wave 3 up opening, triggered short-covering rally that lasted all day, with a small profit-taking decline into the close. Friday is usually a bullish day, typically with some selling in the morning and then rally into the afternoon as traders will cover their shorts ahead of the weekend. 

Whether or not all the short-covering has been exhausted by Thursday's massive rally, only time will tell, and will depends on where it opens and trades in the early morning

Key level for Friday is 3200 for NQ.

-- Opening and trading above 3200 on Friday morning should continue to trigger short-covering rally.

-- Below 3200, however, implies NQ is going into a consolidation mode.

Debt ceiling debate is going to continue influence market action.

Guideline For Thursday

After making a lower low on Wednesday, NQ consolidated the rest of the day. Once consolidation ends, it should trend back down again. Whether or not consolidated has ended on Wednesday only time will tell.

Key level for Thursday is 3130.

-- A clear and sustained break below 3130 implies NQ is ready to trend back down.

-- Above 3130 is an indication that NQ is still in a pullback mode, with upside target at 3160 area.

Janet Yelling was appointed as the next Fed Chairperson

Guideline for Wednesday

The equity market tanked hard all day on Tuesday following the announcement of a NO-DEAL on the the debt ceiling negotiations - which implies the United states is likely going into a technical default on its debt if agreement is not reached by October 17, 2013, with the ramifications that is unknown.

Tuesday's selloff must have scared the Fed, with Obama scheduled to announce the appointment of Janet Yellin - who is the ultra money-printer, as the new Fed Chairman, in the hope of avoiding further selloff, and triggering a market rally.

All market indices declined down to support on Tuesday, and with the announcement of the new Fed chairwoman after hours on Tuesday, it is possible that we may get a countertrend rally on Wednesday. If so, it should then trade and stay above key level.

NQ key price level / inflection point for Wednesday is 3160.

-- Above 3160 could trigger a short-covering rally, with resistance at 3180-3190 then 3205.

-- Below 3160 implies NQ is still going down, with the next support at 3140, a very strong support level, and it will take a very bearish market to clearly break below 3140.

Guideline For Tuesday

The equity market opened with a large gap-down on Monday, triggered algo buy programs that quickly pushed NQ up into near gap-close before reversing back down to re-test the opening low at the close.

The Dow, S&P and NQ futures all closed at or near key support - which can trigger a large rally or tank hard, likely in the morning.

NQ key support = 3205

ES key support = 1664

YM key support = 14,850

--- Holding above key support could attract algo buy programs pushing the markets higher.

--- Breaking below key support could cause a fast drop down to the next support level, 3180-3185 for NQ, 1650 for ES, 14600-14650 for YM

As long as there is still no agreement on the debt ceiling look for the Fed to come in to buy any market decline.

Guideline For Monday

The market rallied all day on Friday and into the close as traders closed their short position for the weekend, with NQ closing near the high of the day, and in overbought condition on the 5-minute chart. For Monday morning it is likely to pullback down into support before rallying back up again.

Key level for NQ in the morning is 3230.

-- Opening and staying above 3230 on Monday morning implies the morning trend is up, with upside target at 3260 area.

-- Below 3230 is an indication that NQ is going into a pullback-down mode before going back up again, with support at 3205 and then if the market is really bearish, strong support at 3185-3190.

Debt ceiling debate is still going to influence market movement, until it is settled, the market is going to stay choppy.

Guideline For Friday

A large down-day for NQ on Thursday morning, then consolidated the rest of the afternoon, with a close just below key level. 

For Friday, key level in the morning is 3205.

-- Above 3205 implies NQ is still in a pullback mode, target 1:1 up is 3220.

-- Bearish below 3205, with first target down is a re-test of Thursday's swing low, with the next support at 3180.

-- A sustained break below 3180 could trigger a liquidation decline, with algo selling potentially going into full force with next support at 3140.

Guideline For Thursday

NQ consolidated between 3250 resistance and 3220 support on Wednesday, and as long as it stays inside the 3220 - 3250 range on Thursday, consolidation should continue.

Breaking below 3220 implies likely decline to next support 3200-3205.

Above 3250 may trigger short-covering with next upside target 3260-3265.

Guideline For Wednesday

A trending up day on Tuesday for NQ with a close near the day high. Depending on where it opens and trade in the morning on Wednesday, NQ either continue to rally up or pullback down and consolidates.

Key level for Wednesday is 3240.

-- Above 3240 implies NQ is continuing up right away to the next target, 3265-3270 zone before consolidating.

-- Below 3240 implies it is going into a consolidation mode target down move to 3420-3430. Though not expected (but with the fiscal cliff debate continuing anything can happen), below 3420 implies a decline down to the next support 3200-3205