Thursday, August 29, 2013

Friday Guideline For NQ

NQ quickly broke above resistance 3085 on Thursday and the continued to rally up to resistance before pulling back down to broken resistance now-support at the close.

For Friday, 3085 will be key level to watch for NQ trend direction
-- If 3085 support can hold in the morning NQ should rally back up to 3010 resistance, and possible has to break above it before pulling right back down.
-- Below 3085 implies NQ is going back down to support 3050-3055

British Parliament had just voted down the UK involvement in the military strikes against Syria so the US may have to go it along.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Guide For NQ on Thursday

On Wednesday, NQ traded sideways following a strong down-trending day on Tuesday, with resistance at 3085 and support at 3050. 

For Thursday NQ can certainty continue to trade sideways unless it can get a clear breakout of the trading range 3050 - 3085 that is accompanied by extreme bullish/bearish market internals, otherwise it is just going to falsebreak out of the range and then reverse.
The upcoming US military action against Syria, which can occur at any moment, is certainly going to influence Thursday's trading action, and it is likely to have a very negative influence on the market, unless of course the Fed is going to support any sell-off that may occur.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

NQ Guideline For Wednesday

A huge gap-down opened on Tuesday turned into a trending-down day. With debt ceiling deadline approaching and a rush into war as a diversion tactics, the sell-off should continue, with or without a consolidation day, unless of course the Fed is willing to spend massive amount of money to support the market.
Key Level For Wednesday is 3067 in NQ
-- Below 3067 the sell-off should continue in the morning with supports at 3050, 3025 and 3000.
-- Holding above 3067 implies it is going into consolidation, with resistance at 3085 (Point-of-Control) and 3100 ( upper trading range = resistance)

Monday, August 26, 2013

NQ Tuesday Guide

NQ dropped sharply from double top on Monday, dropped down to and closed near FT Pivot support 3120. Where it opens in the morning in relation to it will determine the direction of the morning trend

-- The next support below 3120 is 3100.
-- Resistance is at 3136

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Guideline For Monday - NQ

NQ opened with a gap-up on Friday and then traded sideways in a very narrow trading range. With the US bond prices collapsing, gold rallying and the upcoming BRIICS countries meeting in September regarding their plan for ending the USD as a reserve currency, the Fed is sure to be extremely active manipulating all markets to make them look good and healthy, and we must always be on guard for unexpected market moves. 

Key level to watch for in the morning would be 3120 in NQ.
-- Bullish above - with the first zone of resistance at 3150-3160
-- Pullback below 3120 with first support at 3000

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Friday Guideline For NQ

Non-stop buying by the Fed in Wednesday's overnight trading that continued all day on Thursday managed to turned the market around from downtrend to uptrend on the daily chart.

Key level to watch for on Friday will be Thursday's swing low (3082) as stop-losses are now residing just below that level, so as long as that low is still intact look for the uptrend to continue on Friday.

Below 3082 would be very bearish, implies the fed buying binge has failed to attract any buying activities other than just pure short-covering.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Guideline For NQ on Thursday

The stock market sold-off immediately after the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting, but the Plunge Protection Team was ready to buy the drop, triggering a massive buy programs which took NQ back up to the upper trading range. 

The programs were designed to panic the shorts in the hope to trigger a short-covering rally, but, instead ot triggering a short-covering rally, the market sold off hard into the close. It is likely the end of day swelling will continue into Thursday, with the next support at 3030 and stronger support at 3000.

But, key level on Thursday is 3060, which is Wednesday's spike low.
-- More selling should come in on a sustained break below 3060, with supports at 3030 and 3000.
-- NQ should continue to consolidate above 3060 with resistance at 3100. It would need a clear and sustained break above 3100 to potentially trigger a short-covering rally.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Wednesday's Guideline for NQ

NQ traded sideways inside the prior three days trading range (3067 - 3100) on Tuesday with the close right in the middle of the range. Unless it can clearly break out of the range, NQ will continue to trade inside the range.

However, having traded for four consecutive days inside the range NQ may be ready to breakout on Wednesday, the direction is likely to the downside. To so, it has to clearly break below the range low 3067.

A sustained break above 3100 implies breakout is to the upside.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Tuesday Guideline

NQ tried to breakout above prior consolidation range high, but the Dow and the S&P were just too bearish dragging NQ back down, caused a false-breakout in NQ, resulted in a trend reversal back down to test the range low, closing at the low of the day.

For the bulls, stoplosses are now congregating just below the range low, just below 3067. A clear and sustained break below 3067 could cause a major sell-off. Supports are 3055 and 3030.

3067 needs to hold to avoid the next sell-off and or to consolidate/rally

Sunday, August 18, 2013

NQ Guideline For Monday

With most traders gone for the weekend, NQ continued to consolidate sideways on Friday, staying inside prior day range. 

With more traders back at their trading desk on Monday it may breakout out of the current range 3065-3090, the direction of the break would depends on where it trades in relation of the Thursday-Friday range 3065 - 3090.

A sustained break out of the 3065-3090 range could run-over stop-losses that can cause a fast trending move out of the range.
-- Upside breakout target is 3125.
-- Downside breakdown target is 3030 - 3000

A false breakout of the range is always a possibility. If so, look for fast reversal and an attempt to break out of the opposite range high/low.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Friday Guideline

NQ opened with a large gap-down. After initially falling down about 30 points or so from the open, it spent the rest of the day consolidating inside a trading range.

For Friday, if NQ stays inside Thursday's trading range, it is going to continue to trades sideways. A sustained break out of the range however could cause a trending move in the direction of the break.

When You Get This Many Hindenburg Omens, The Stock Market Is Supposed To Crash
Hindenburg
Art Cashin, Director of UBS NYSE Floor Operations, warns that this obviously isn't a sure thing.

"The viewers should be alert to it, but they shouldn't be panicked," said Cashin in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. "It is a signal that says there may have a serious sell-off not they must have a serious sell-off."

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Guide For Thursday

A consolidation day following Tuesday's massive rally day. Cisco's sell-off after hours after announcing a layof of over 4,000 worker, may cause a bearish day on Thursday. If so, look for more selling or a gap-down open on Thursday, and unless the Fed is ready with large buy programs, the market may sell-off.

Key Level or Thursday is 3130.
-- Continual decline or consolidation below 3130. Cisco's news may cause the market to sell-off hard on Thursday unless the fed comes to the rescue in a big way
-- Above 3130 implies consolidation may have ended and the next rally is likely, targeting a break above Tuesday's swing high.

Fed buying Vs the market
From zerohedge: We know that between January 2009 and April 2013, on days in which the Fed POMO was more than $5 billion, the stock market rose a total of 570 points, on days in which the POMO was less than $5 billion, the cumulative stock market gain was "only" 141 points, and when there was no POMO, the S&P gained... -51 points.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Guideline For Wednesday

After quickly dropping down to support in the early morning, massive and sustained buy programs, likely from the Fed pushed NQ up all day to new high, with some profit-taking decline into the close.

With a strong positive momentum going into the close the expectation is for a gap-up open in the morning. If so, look for a high-probability gap-close trade at the opening bell. If the uptrend is to continue right away, gap-close should serve as support for the next leg up.

Breaking below the gap-close however implies NQ is going down to the next support at 3130 before bouncing.

A gap-down open would nengate the above analysis, then key resistance and line-in-the-sand would be at gap-close

Monday, August 12, 2013

Guideline for Tuesday

NQ opened with a gap-down and then immediately rallied to close the gap, breaking through the gap-close and rallied all the way up to R1 resistance before stalling and traded sideways all day. 

At the close of the day NQ is set to either gap-up to resistance, or rally up to resistance in the morning,  or open gap-down to support or drop down to support in the morning.

Key level for Tuesday is 3120,
-- Resistance 3135 - 3143, and 
-- Supports are 3109 - 3101

Gold opened with a gap-up just below key resistance 1350. It needs to clearly break above 1350 to trigger a short-covering rally. failure to do so would send gold back down to support 1320, 1300, 1280

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Monday NQ Guideline

At the end of the day on Friday NQ looks ready to either tank down to the next support level or rally back up to higher-high.

Key level for NQ on Monday morning is 3120.
-- Bearish below 3120, with the next support at 3090.
-- Bullish above 3120 with the next resistance at 3140 but it would probably has to break above 3140 before pulling back down.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Guideline For Friday -- NQ

Another sideways consolidation day, strong decline in the morning then reverse and rally for the rest of the day. Friday is usually a sideways choppy day, so the pattern may continue on Friday. 

If so, look for a gap-up open in the morning as a result of the Fed overnight buy programs, then it gets sold off right after open as traders take advantage of a gap-up open to exit their long overnight position. 

A gap-down open, however would have the opposite pattern.

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Wednesday Guideline -- NQ

Talk of tapering by the Fed talking heads on Monday caused a selloff on Tuesday morning. If the Fed is serious about QE tapering that would be the impetus for the sell-off that should last for one year, until September 22014.
The sell-off should be fast and furious, more akin to a crash, as most traders and investors are currently mostly long with very high leverage, and any contraction in the money supply as a result of the Fed tapering their QE would cause massive longs liquidations that can get out of control.

We shall see if the Fed's  talking head would change their mind again. If not, the sell-off have have just begun.

Key Level for Wednesday is 3030, prior support now-resistance.
-- Bearish below 3130, but it would need to break below 3110 to trigger another round of sharp sell-off.
-- The short would start to cover above 3130, next upside target is a break above Monday's swing high.

Monday, August 5, 2013

Guide For Tuesday - NQ

A paused day for NQ on Monday after making a higher-high above prior day high. Key level for Tuesday will be the same as Monday, 3130.

As long as NQ trades above 3130 I will be looking for another higher-high, but if it trades below 3130 the next support is 3115. 

With the constant presence of the Fed's relentless buy programs it is difficult to imagine that NQ will break below 3015, but if it does, the next support below is 3095

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Monday Guideline For NQ

Relentless Fed buying and buying from short-covering produced another up-trending day on Friday. The market is clearly going into a blow-off top, and once all the panic buying has exhausted itself, it would go into a very sharp reversal. We may have up to one more week of panic buying before reversing sharply.

Key Level in the morning for NQ is 3130. 
-- More short-covering above 3130 with the next target up is 3150.
-- below 3130 implies it is in a pullback mode, downside target 3110

Thursday, August 1, 2013

Friday Guideline

A gap-up and a trend-up day on Thursday with a close near the day high. For Friday, NQ may pullback down before rallying up to another higher-high or rally to another higher-high and the pullback down to support.

Key Level for Friday is 3115.
-- Above 3115 at the open and staying above 3115 implies it is going to first make a higher-high before pulling back down to support
-- However, below 3115 implies it is going into a pullback mode before rallying back up to new higher-high.