NQ Daily Trend Guide

Nasdaq NQ bump into 2920 resistance zone on Thursday and Friday, pulling back down to support on both days. That makes 2920 as key resistance on Monday, as failure to clearly break above resistance  implies NQ may go into a pullback-down mode on Monday.

Support on Monday are 2900, 2890, 2875, 2860 

Trade Guideline For Thursday.

NQ opened with a big gap-up above resistance 2875, but failed to trigger any large short-covering rally, as NQ simply traded in a very narrow-range above broken resistance-turned support all day. 

Key level to watch for is 2875 broken resistance now support.

-- Above 2875 implies continual consolidation or rally up to the next resistance level 2910-2910.

-- A clear and sustained break below 2875 may attract selling and could tank NQ down to support levels, 2860 or down to lower level 2844.

Capitulation decline in Gold, look for snap-back rally soon.

Trade Guideline For Wednesday

After rallying strongly from the day low on Monday, the market consolidated and traded sideways on Tuesday, setting up a potential trending move on Wednesday if it breaks out of the range.

The direction of the move will depends on where it trades on Wednesday, with the closing price right in the middle of range, NQ could go either way, with key resistance at 2875, key support at 2845.

With stop-losses congregating just above 2875, a sustained break above 2875 resistance could trigger a short-covering rally, next resistance is 2905-2910. 

However, failure to clearly break above 2875 could attract selling which could drops prices down to re-test Tuesday's swing low. A break below 2845 could trigger liquidation decline.

Gold still in a strong downtrend also traded sideways on Tuesday, setting up a big drop on Wednesday, supports are 1240 and 1180

Trade Guideline for Tuesday

The market rallied sharply in the afternoon, but pulling back down at the end of the day, retracing 50% of the afternoon rally for NQ. 

The pattern on the 5-minute chart is set to open with a gap-up and trend up on Tuesday. However, the daily trend is still in a strong down mode, which may negate the 5-minute bullish chart pattern.

Key resistance for Tuesday is 2870-2875 area, support is 2830-2835.

-- A clear and sustained break above 2875 could trigger a fast short-covering rally with target at 2905-2910.

-- Below 2875 implies NQ is going back down to support 2830-2835. Below 2830 implies the daily downtrend is still in progress, and a break below Monday low could trigger another round of liquidation drop.

Bond market is still in sharp selloff

Trade Guideline For Monday

NQ dropped down to support on the daily chart on Friday, 2850, before reversing back up and closed in the middle of the range. Friday was the third consecutive down days, so unless the trend down is extremely strong NQ should stay above 2850 support, and pullback up to resistance, 2905-2910 area before going back down again to continue the downtrend.

Although not expected, a clear and sustained break above 2910 could trigger a short-covering rally, back up to re-test 3000 resistance zone.

On the other hand, a clear and sustained break below Friday low implies the current decline is a very powerful one. If so, NQ is heading straight down to lower support before pulling back up, the next downside target is 2800 support.

Gold continued to stay in sell mode, with a large gap-down and sold-off hard into 1290 support on Thursday, stayed above 1290 support on Friday. 

How much bounce should we see from 1290 support only time will tell. Key resistance is now 1350 area. Failure to bounce sharply above 1290 would attract aggressive selling which can take gold price down to lower support levels, 1240 and 1180

Trade Guideline For Thursday

The Fed hinted that they will reduce QE at the end of the year and may stop QE by next year. On that note the market sold-off hard into the close. 

Unless opinion of market participants  change overnight, and the Fed came into the market and aggressively buy stocks, the annual summer market sell-off may have just begun on Wednesday.

Key Level tp watch for on Thursday is 2985 for Nasdaq NQ and 1642 for ES (S&P 500 Futures)

-- Below 2985 + 1642 the stock market sell-off should continue

-- Above  key level implies the bull market is still alive, targeting a re-test of may swing high.

Gold sold-off hard into the close, breaking below prior swing low. Gold price needs to recover and trade back above 1360 to stabilize gold price. Failure to do so has the potential to trigger a massive algorithm sell orders that can crash gold price down very quickly, the next downside target is $1,240, but it could easily overshoot down as panic selling sets in.

Trade Guideline For Wednesday

Nasdaq continued to trend higher on Tuesday ahead of FOMC statement on Wednesday. Traders and investors will be looking for a major change in the FOMC statement

Without any significant change in FOMC statement the market may go into the usual summer selling mode that would last until September or October. Whether or not it will start on Wednesday only time will tell, but key level to watch for on Wednesday is 2965 support area

-- .Above 2970, the uptend is still in progress, targeting a move up to re-test May swing high

-- A clear and sustained break below 2965 implies NQ is reversing back down. 

Trading Guideline For Tuesday

NQ opened with a gap-up and then rallied up to resistance in the morning before reversing back down towards the gap-close, missed closing the gap due to end of day profit-taking rally into the close.

For Tuesday support is 2950 and resistance is 2985. 

Trading inside the range implies potential sideways consolidation ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting as traders wait for Wednesday's FOMC minutes before making a major decision.

Without a substantial change in the FOMC minutes the stock market may selloff for the rest of the summer as traders who are long the market take profit.

A clear and sustained break out of the 2950-2985 trading range could cause a trending move in the direction of the breakout as stoploss gets hit.

Next Resistance is 3000, 3020

Next Support is 2935, 2910

Trade Guideline For Monday (September Contract)

On Friday NQ opened at Thursday's close and rallied to re-test Thursday's high before reversing back down and trend down all day. 

Key level on Monday morning is 2940

-- Downtrend should continue below 2940, with support at 2925, 2900 - 2905.

-- Above 2940 implies Friday's downtrend may have ended, but it has to clearly break above 2947.50 to trigger  short-covering rally, with resistance coming in at 2965, then 2980, 3000

Trade Guideline For Friday

On Thursday NQ opened and promptly reversed back up above 2930 key level, triggered short-covering rally that lasted all day, closing near the day high.

Key Level for Friday is 2950. 
-- Without a clear and sustained break below 2950, the uptrend that started on Thursday is still intact. A continual push higher should continue to trigger more short-covering rally, with resistance at 2970 then 2985.  A clear break above 2985 should trigger a massive short-covering rally or spike.
-- Below 2950 implies the trend has ended and that it is either going into a pullback consolidation mode down or a reversal back down. Supports are 2930 and 2910.

Bradley Model Turning Forecast for 2013

Trade Guideline For thursday

Both NQ and ES opened with a gap-up to just below their first resistance, strong resistance. Multiple selling programs promptly set in, easily breaking below the gap-close level, after a re-test of the broken gap-close support, it then trend down all day closing at the day low.

For Thursday key level for NQ in the morning is 2930.

-- Above 2930 implies NQ is going into a pullback mode with first resistance at 2960, then if 2960 resistance hold, it should then drop back down to re-test Wednesday's low, or breaking to lower low.

-- More selling below 2930, with support at 2910 and 2900. Unless it gets extreme bearish, either supports 2910 or 2900 should hold and reverse the market back up. However, if market internals gets really bearish, NQ may tank all the way down to 2860 support area.

Trade Guideline For Wednesday

The market opened with a large gap-down, then quickly reversed and rallied up closing the gap & a re-test of prior day low. 

Unable to break above very strong resistance, a combination of gap-close resistance + prior day low resistance + FT Pivot Resistance, it then eventually reversed back down to re-test the opening price level. The direction of the morning trend on Wednesday will depend on the morning price action.

For Wednesday, depending on where it trades soon after the opening bell in relation to its first support & resistance levels, NQ and ES either continue its afternoon decline down to its second support level, or rally up to its second resistance level.

NQ First Resistance is 2985, and First Support is 2950, 

-- Second Resistance is 3005, second Support is 2910

ES First Resistance is 1640, and First Support is 1622, 

-- Second resistance is 1652, Second Support is 1612

Staying inside its first support-resistance levels implies a choppy sideways trading condition.

Trade Guideline For Tuesday

After opening higher on Monday and then closing the opening gap, NQ rallied into 1305 resistance. When it failed to break above resistance, profit-taking activities dropped NQ down to support, then closing near the middle of the day trading range.

For Tuesday I am looking for NQ to rally as long as it does not violate key support. However, it needs to break above 3005 to trigger a short-covering rally. Failure to do so could easily cause NQ to trade sideways. 

A clear violation of key support will be bearish, and is an indication that we should be looking for short trades.

Key support for Tuesday in NQ is 2970 area. 

Trade Guideline for Monday

Friday was the second consecutive rally days, with the close near the high of the day. Where it opens in relation to its key level on Monday will determine whether we will get a morning rally, or a morning decline.

Key level for Monday is 2980, with first resistance at 3000-3005, and support at 2950.

-- Above 2950 implies the trend that started from Thursday low is still in progress, targeting the next resistance 3000-3005.

-- Below 2980 in indication the market is going to pullback down to support first before rallying back up.

The current dominant trend is Risk-on trade, Sell safe haven assets like gold and bond, and Buy risky asset like equity.

Trade Guideline For Friday

Nasdaq trended down in the morning and then reversed from down to up at 12:30 pm, closing exactly at key resistance 2950. 

2950 will serve as key support/resistance level on Friday.

-- Short-covering should continue above 2950 with the next resistance at 3000-3005.

-- Failure to stay above 2950 implies NQ is going into a pullback down move, with first support at 2930-2935. If 2930-2935 support holds, I will be looking for NQ to go into another uptrend. A clear and sustained break below 2930 implies it is going down to re-test Thursday's swing low.

Trade Guideline For Thursday

Downtrend that started on Tuesday continued into Wednesday. If the downtrend is to continue down on Thursday, it should stay below key resistance level at 2950 area.

A clear break above 2950 implies the 5-minute downtrend that started from Tuesday high has ended and that NQ is going into a consolidation or short-covering rally mode.

Below 2950 implies the downtrend is still in progress, next target down is 2900 then 2880

Tuesday Trading Guideline

As expected, NQ trended down in the morning to complete its wave 5 down for the wave series that started from last week Thursday swing high. Wave 5 down ended at around 11:45 am and then rallied back up to just below resistance at the close.

With the afternoon rally as wave A of the first leg up, once completed, I am looking for NQ to pullback down for its wave B, with support coming in between 2960 - 2970.

As long as  2960- 2970 support zone hold any decline, NQ should then rally back up to 2995 - 3000 resistance. Breaking above 3000 could trigger a fast short-covering rally.

Trade Guideline For Monday

After the morning rally on Friday the market sold-off hard into the close, down to double-bottom support, 2979. Where it opens on Monday in relation to its key price level will determine the bull-bear bias.

For Monday 2979 will be a key level to watch for. 

-- Trailing stop-losses for those holding long position lies just below double-bottom 2979 area. A clear break below 2979 or a big gap-down below 2979 has the potential to trigger a long-covering liquidation sell-off as stop-losses gets hit.

-- However, above 2979 implies the longs are safe, and NQ is going into a rally mode back up to resistance, with first resistance at 2996 - 3000, which is the previous support, now resistance.