Trade Guideline for Thursday (NQ)

Massive intervention by the Fed and the ECB in the Gold, Silver and Crude Oil market (pushing prices down) in order to mask their massive currency injection (some reports indicating $712.4 billion) to support the collapsing European banks. Unless they can continue to whack gold, silver and crude oil, their price could easily bounce back up in a very strong way.

NQ opened near the day high and closed near the day low, clearly a pullback or a reversal day. How it trades on Thursday would depends on where it trades in relation to key price level, 2630 for Thursday.

• Above 2630 implies pullback is completed and it is ready for the next leg up, target 2640, then 2645-2650.
• Below 2630 implies it is still in a pullback mode, target 2600-2605.

European protest now spread to Spain.

Trade Guideline for Thursday (NQ)

Stock market continued its slow uptrend on Tuesday with NQ closing just above its key inflection level (2625) for Wednesday.

• Above 2625 implies the next upleg is in progress, target 2650.
• Below 2625 implies it is in a pullback mode, target 2615 then 2605.

Greek protesters are now starting to turn against its German's financial occupiers, burning German flags, a very serious development indeed.

Trade Guideline for Tuesday (NQ)

The equities market remains in a very strong uptrend mode, but it has not had a decent pullback since the middle of December 2011. 

NQ is now running into a trendline resistance and its uptrend momentum is slowing down significantly. However, it can continue to crawl upward as long as it does not break below key support levels where automated trailing stop may get triggered.

For Tuesday, key inflection point is 2605.

• Above 2605 implies the next upswing is in progress.
• Below 2605 implies it is ain a pullback mode, next support 2590

Greek's debt crisis continues..

ECRI reaffirmed their September 2011 recession call

Last September Lachman Achuthan warned of an incoming recession in the US. Here is a link to their September 2011 recession call. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-faces-new-recession-ecri-2011-09-30

He recently reaffirmed his recession call appearing in Bloomberg and CNBC, among other media outlets. He advised that recession would not be felt by the public until about six month into the recession, hence should not be felt until about the middle of 2012.

In the meantime the stock market can keep going up until then (see the charts provided by Advisor Perspective). Here is the link to some of his recent appearances via Advisor Perspectives.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php

Here is a link to Economic Cycle research Institute's website.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news

Trade Guideline For Monday (Nasdaq NQ)

The speed of the current uptrend has been slowing down for over a week, but as long as it continues to stay above key support level, the trend can continue to crawl upwards. It can also re-accelerates upward.

Key level for Monday is 2605.

• Above 2605 implies the the next upswing is in progress targeting 2620-2630.
• Below 2605 implies it is in pullback mode targeting 2590. A sustained break below 2590 implies a more series pullback is in progress, next target down is 2570-2580, then 2555-2560

In the meantime, bank-run in Greece continues, and G20 finance ministers are preparing to print $2 trillion to bail out failing banks and countries in Europe, bullish for real assets including gold, silver and crude oil because it seems central banks are determined not to let the debt bubble to deflate. 

Trade Guideline for Friday (NQ)

Thursday's early morning break to the downside was promptly reversed back into the trading range 2575-2600, and then closed at the upper trading range.

For Friday NQ may try to breakout of the upper range, and if not promptly reverse could trigger another round of short-covering rally, targeting 2610-2620.

Key Support/Resistance Level for Friday is 2590.

• Above 2590 implies attempted breakout above 2600. If not reversed immediately could propel price to go up to 2610-2620.
• Below 2590 implies a re-test of lower trading range 2575

How Goldman Sachs helped mask Greece's debt

Nick Dunbar, author of The Devil's Derivatives, revealed how the country turned to investment bank Goldman Sachs for help getting around the deficit rules. In his report for Newsnight, some of those who did the deal, talk publicly for the first time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17108367

Trade Guideline for Thursday (NQ)

Wednesday was another consolidation day below 2600. It can continue to consolidate inside a narrow trading range 2575-2600 until it clearly breaks out of it.

• A breakout to the upside could trigger another round of short-covering rally, taking it to the next resistance level, 2615-2625
• A break-down below the lower trading range has the potential to run-over trailing stops of those holding long position, and can cause a fast liquidation decline down to 2545-2550

Trade Guideline For Wednesday (Nasdaq NQ)

After hitting the 2600 resistance level, NQ has been consolidating below the 2600 level for three consecutive days. NQ should continue to consolidate sideways or pullback to lower support levels unless it can clearly breaks and stays above the 2600 level.

Key inflection level is 2590.

• Above 2590 implies the next upleg is in progress, targeting a break above 2600 level. Whether it will stay above that level on a break only time will tell. However on a break, it either rocket up to the next upside target or reverses back down to support.
• Below 2590 implies it is in a pullback mode, down to 2575.

Trade Guideline for Tuesday (NQ)

US and Canadian markets were closed on Monday, and last week Friday was a sideways consolidation day.

For Tuesday, key inflection(S/R) level is 2585.

• Above 2585 implies the next up leg is in progress targeting a break above prior swing high, which is February 15th swing high.
• Below 2585 implies more consolidation, a potential decline down to the next support level 2575. Next support below is 2565.

Greek Default March 23rd, 2012

Rumours swirling on the internet regarding a potential Greek debt default, bank holiday and a return to Drachma scheduled for March 23rd 2012.


How likely will it happen on that day is difficult to say because the European and the US will do everything in their power to postphone the day of reckoning, because a greek default has the potential to bring down many large European and US banks.


Here is a link to an article in ETF daily.
http://etfdailynews.com/2012/02/16/greece-officially-defaults-march-23-banks-close-ewg-vgk-fxe-ewq-gld/

Trading Guideline for Friday (NQ)

With the Fed and the ECB money-printing speed in over-drive, it is quite easy to anticipate that Wednesday's strong decline would be reversed back up, and it did on Thursday afternoon, with the close at the day high.

For Friday, key inflection point (support/resistance level) is 2580. 

• Above 2580 implies the uptrend is in progress, targeting higher than Wednesday's swing high.
• Below 2580 implies it is in a pullback mode targeting 2565-2570

Trade Guideline for Thursday (NQ)

A reversal day Wednesday, with the open near the high and the close at the day low.

Key inflection point for Thursday is 2570.

• Below 2570 implies it is still in a fast mode down targeting  2545. A sustained break below 2545 may run over stop-losses that can trigger a fast liquidation drop to the next support zone 2520-2500.
• Above 2570 implies a larger pullback up is in progress with 2580-2585 as target. Above 2585 implies the NQ is re-trending back uo, next upside target 2600.

Greece is going into full-blown chaos, spooking the global market. Greece defaulting and leaving the euro-zone will collapse the European and US banking system.

Trade Guideline For Wednesday (Nasdaq NQ)

Another consolidation day, dropping down to first support, then rally at the end of day.

For Wednesday key inflection point is 2565.

• Above 2565 implies the next leg up is in progress, targeting a move up to 2585. If that does not stop the rally, then the next target up is 2595-2600.
• Below 2565 implies it is going into a pullback mode, with a pullback target down to 2555. If that does not stop the decline, next downside target is 2545.

Trade Guideline for Tuesday (NQ)

Short-covering rally continues as the Fed, the ECB and the BOE continues to monetize the debts. The rally should continue as long it can continue to stay above key support level.

For Tuesday the key inflection point is 2265.

• Above 2265 implies the next upleg is still in progress targeting a move up to 2575, then 2585.
• Below 2565 implies it is going into a pullback/consolidation mode targeting a drop down to 2250, and if that does not stop the decline, then next target/support is 2240  

European debt crisis should continue to influence the market.

Trading Guideline for Monday (NQ)

NQ opened gap-down then spend the rest of the day consolidating the large gap-down move. On Monday it would either continue to consolidate and stay inside the range, re-trend back up or continue to drop back down for another down leg, depending on where it trades on Monday.

Key inflection level for Monday is 2545, upper trading range 2550, lower trading range 2535.

• Above upper trading range implies the next upleg is in progress, targeting a move up to 2565 then 2575.
• Below 2535 implies the next downleg is in progress targeting a drop down to 2525 then 2515.

Trade Guideline for Friday (NQ)

Another up-trending day on Thursday, but it is now in a very overbought territory, and may be ready for a pullback. However, being in overbought territory does not imply immediate pullback, as it can continue to trend higher and higher.

The key level for Friday is 2560

• Above 2560 implies it is still in an up-trending mode, with the next upside target at 2575-2580.
• A sustained break below 2560 implies it is going into a consolidation/pullback  mode targeting a drop down to 2545 then 2535.

From Associated Press:

European central banks to blast cash into economy

FRANKFURT, Germany -- With Europe sliding toward recession, the region's two main central banks are preparing to redouble their emergency measures aimed at softening the downturn and blunting the effects of the government debt crisis.

Analysts expect the U.K.'s central bank, the Bank of England, to announce Thursday that it will inject another 50 billion pounds ($79 billion) of new money into an economy that shrank at the end of last year.

Meeting the same day at its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, the European Central Bank is expected to trumpet the advantages of its second unlimited offering of cheap, three-year loans to be allotted to banks on Feb. 29.

Neither central bank is expected to change interest rates from their current record lows -- the Bank of England at 0.5 percent and the ECB at 1.0 percent. Rather, attention will focus on their outlooks and their attempts to push more money into the banking systems and the economy.

A first blast of cheap ECB credit -- euro489 billion ($641.23 billion)-- was taken up by 523 banks on Dec. 23. The step has been credited with calming some of the market panic from the debt crisis hitting the 17 countries that use the euro, and stocks and government bonds have risen since then. Analysts think the takeup could equal or exceed the first one, since the ECB has loosened collateral requirements.